FS is closed, prove me wrong

[Jhodgesatmb]

Closed? Who knows. People have gotten invites as recently as this week. Who knows how wide that distribution was though.

On 02/13/2024 we see on the orders list at least a dozen new invites that ordered from this group and they covered 11286 and 11287 (mostly the former). No one can know for how long invitations will go out or whether they will continue to be on Tuesdays or whether they will be linear; we have to watch and wait (and, for me at least, hope).

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[Gigahorse]

On 02/13/2024 we see on the orders list at least a dozen new invites that ordered from this group and they covered 11286 and 11287 (mostly the former). No one can know for how long invitations will go out or whether they will continue to be on Tuesdays or whether they will be linear; we have to watch and wait (and, for me at least, hope).

Yea but most people with sub 113 order #s getting invites are also checking their email/apps daily, I don't think this new wave of FS are people who have been sitting on invites for a month all of the sudden deciding to pony up for FS.

Although it is tax return season so maybe with a JUICY refund, people have $ to blow on the FS markup.

 

[seadsmoney]

they are still sending out Foundation Series "invites"

People have gotten invites as recently as this week

we see on the orders list at least a dozen new invites

Invitations are still going out

FS invites going out today (2/20/2024) so don't think they are closed.

Foundation series invites appear to be far from over

A bunch more people are reportedly getting invites today...

(new invite)

A guy in my office got a FS invite three days ago - 2/28.

invites going out yesterday and today

Invites continue to roll out.

Tesla is definitely marching through the RNs slowly

count the invites per month, don't just spot a new one at the bottom of the list and think it's still full speed ahead. new invites are only accounting for attrition from previous.

 

[cofree]

Invites are still flowing, and previous invites are allowed to configure. However the rate of new invites is slower than before.
Two fairly obvious explanations for this are:
* Once they are several months ahead in taking orders there is no real point in getting any further ahead. They might as well only keep sending out invites to maintain a backlog of X months.
* Many recent orders placed are from invites sent a while ago. The spreadsheet has many instances of people who ordered well after their invites. I expect users of this forum would skew towards those who order quickly after an invite. Given the slow production rate there might be sufficient old invites out there having orders placed to maintain a backlog of X months in the queue.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

count the invites per month, don't just spot a new one at the bottom of the list and think it's still full speed ahead. new invites are only accounting for attrition from previous.

You don’t know that. We do not even know how many invitations have gone out to people on this list let alone how many total. We can ‘see’ trucks being built at a regular rate and we know that it is expensive to ‘not’ build trucks so Tesla will ramp as quickly as they safely can.

I am not sure where you negative attitude is coming from but I do not believe that you are right.

 

[rbrak29]

I hope it's true, but if the 80K CT can be ordered soon it better have the $7500 credit. I have heard Tesla is shipping 4680 cathode coils from China. How this affects the credit is yet to be determined.

https://www.cybertruckownersclub.co...s-not-eligible-for-7500-tax-credit-yet.12317/

 

[PerfectFlaw]

Although it is tax return season so maybe with a JUICY refund, people have $ to blow on the FS markup.

Fact is, many buyers of vehicles over $100K don't get tax refunds, they owe money each year because they make a ton of cash and no matter what, will owe money.

If someone is waiting on a tax refund to decide on a vehicle that's six figures, I'll politely suggest that it's probably a vehicle that's not financially smart to purchase for them.

 

[CybertruckRN1127]

There will be a break until all Foundations are delivered. If they stopped FS now, people waiting for a VIN will just cancel and swap to non-FS. They have not delivered any Cyberbeasts yet and latest order shows late 2024. I will bet all 2024 CTs will be FS.

 

[Cybertruck26]

You don’t know that. We do not even know how many invitations have gone out to people on this list let alone how many total. We can ‘see’ trucks being built at a regular rate and we know that it is expensive to ‘not’ build trucks so Tesla will ramp as quickly as they safely can.

I am not sure where you negative attitude is coming from but I do not believe that you are right.

Aww, your pupper is gorgeous.

 

[seadsmoney]

There will be a break until all Foundations are delivered. If they stopped FS now, people waiting for a VIN will just cancel and swap to non-FS. They have not delivered any Cyberbeasts yet and latest order shows mid-late 2024. I will bet all 2024 CTs will be FS.

I'm not sure what you're suggesting I was suggesting (they stopped producing FS?) But I'll recap what I was suggesting:

FS invitations were never linear, are actually dropping off exponentially, and there is no evidence to show the target number of FS has increased since the original offering in December.

I predict we'll see a maximum of 26 new invites in March, meaning around 2 entries in the "orders" spreadsheet, or 0 in March, if yesterday's referral promo was meant to cover Feb's attrition.

 

[Gigahorse]

Fact is, many buyers of vehicles over $100K don't get tax refunds, they owe money each year because they make a ton of cash and no matter what, will owe money.

If someone is waiting on a tax refund to decide on a vehicle that's six figures, I'll politely suggest that it's probably a vehicle that's not financially smart to purchase for them.

Agreed, but what other reason would hundreds or thousands of people be waiting to place their FS order and have had an invite sitting for the past month+ ?

Couldn't think of another reason other than "tax time"

I think new FS invites are going out, that is the only explanation that makes sense to me.

 

[PerfectFlaw]

Agreed, but what other reason would hundreds or thousands of people be waiting to place their FS order and have had an invite sitting for the past month+ ?

Couldn't think of another reason other than "tax time"

I think new FS invites are going out, that is the only explanation that makes sense to me.

They could place the order today and the truck wouldn't be delivered until well after they get their tax return money. People waiting probably just are not comfortable with the amount or cannot afford it.

Again, anyone who needs to wait for whatever that sum is to place an order for a vehicle is not making the right financial decision.

Anyone having to wait or factor in any financial windfall, including a tax return, to make a decision on this truck is typically not really in the ideal financial situation to purchase a vehicle of this price.

Unfortunately it's all too common though, and how people get themselves into crazy debt over their lives. Buying a $100K truck on less than $250K+ annual income is crazy to me, and that's on the low side. But it seems common nowadays I guess.

 

[Longranger]

Unless you are old, wealthy and near death nobody NEEDS a CT. The exception is influencers or businesses that need an early unit to make money. Lots of people want a FS CT For various reasons. Undoubtably many of the orders are from enthusiasts that cannot really afford it.

When will foundation season end. Whenever Tesla says so. That will be as soon as the ramp accelerates and FS buyers dry up. If Tesla cannot get the higher volume production costs into rebate range the CT will never be a high volume vehicle.

 

[evnow]

I will bet all 2024 CTs will be FS.

I'll take the other side of this bet.

In other words, if they can only deliver a few thousand (or even 15k) CTs this year, then the ramp is in major trouble - that would be like the first 4 quarter production of the much troubled X. They even delivered more S in the first 4 full quarters - 19k !

My guess is they will deliver some 50k CTs this year - of which 40k or so would be non-FS.

 

[evnow]

Seems like one wave, 12/8-9, with each subsequent mini-wave (or promotion) merely filling out nonstarters from the previous.

That is not a bad assumption.

My guess is
- Tesla has a set number of FS they want to make - some 10k, as reported by some info from a supplier. Remember Tesla can't do all this in total secrecy, they need to order parts from suppliers that may be unique to FS.
- They will continue sending invites to fill out those orders
- They will then stop the invites, possibly close the FS orders
- Then, Tesla will try to ramp up production
- Once they are happy with the production rate (and defect rate) they will decide on the FS to std switchover date
- They will let us order non-FS a month or so before the start of general production, some time in Q3

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