FS is closed, prove me wrong

[CybertruckRN1127]

I'll take the other side of this bet.

In other words, if they can only deliver a few thousand (or even 15k) CTs this year, then the ramp is in major trouble - that would be like the first 4 quarter production of the much troubled X. They delivered 19k S in the first 4 full quarters !

My guess is they will deliver some 50k CTs this year - of which 40k or so would be non-FS.

The latest invite has AWD at May and Beast in late 2024. Elon also said 18 months to ramp. They will still send FS invites slowly. They really can't build, ship, and clean these fast enough. Each truck can only deliver 3 to 4 CTs per load vs 7 with other Teslas. These truck also needs prepping at service which also takes longer than a normal car wash.

There is no point to send out more FS invites while they're playing catch up. They are still delivering orders from 2 months ago. What we know is orders for non-FS AWD could start in May and Beast in 2025 using the latest invite info, but I'm sure AWD FS will also eventually have a late 2024 delivery as they keep sending out FS invites.

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[CybertruckRN1127]

I'm not sure what you're suggesting I was suggesting (they stopped producing FS?) But I'll recap what I was suggesting:

FS invitations were never linear, are actually dropping off exponentially, and there is no evidence to show the target number of FS has increased since the original offering in December.

I predict we'll see a maximum of 26 new invites in March, meaning around 2 entries in the "orders" spreadsheet, or 0 in March, if yesterday's referral promo was meant to cover Feb's attrition.

Invites are never linear. Think of it this way. You have a house party and can fit 200ppl. You invite 300 because you know not everyone you invite will come. Then you get 100 yes. Now, you invite 150 ppl more because you need to fill 100 spots. Now, 75 Yes, so you send another batch. However with Tesla, their house gets bigger over time so now they have 200 spots again and then they send out 300 more invites.

FS invites will match their production. I see a huge wave of FS invites coming once production speeds up a bit.

 

[seadsmoney]

so now they have 200 spots again and then they send out 300 more invites. FS invites will match their production. I see a huge wave of FS invites coming once production speeds up a bit.

I don't see any evidence FS invites will match production. I see no data to suggest a reversal of the current trend (i.e. "a huge wave coming").

production rate is increasing
invitation rate has been decreasing

 

[evnow]

The latest invite has AWD at May and Beast in late 2024. Elon also said 18 months to ramp. They will still send FS invites slowly. They really can't build, ship, and clean these fast enough. Each truck can only deliver 3 to 4 CTs per load vs 7 with other Teslas. These truck also needs prepping at service which also takes longer than a normal car wash.

There is no point to send out more FS invites while they're playing catch up. They are still delivering orders from 2 months ago. What we know is orders for non-FS AWD could start in May and Beast in 2025 using the latest invite info, but I'm sure AWD FS will also eventually have a late 2024 delivery as they keep sending out FS invites.

Shipping and cleaning is hardly the holdup here ... its the manufacturing.

The 18 month ramp up was for some 5k/wk (250k a year). For that to happen they should be cranking out 10k a month by the end of this year - or put it in another way, entire FS order completed in a month.

Beast is a different .... animal. They clearly have ramp up production issues and have not really started production. They will not hold up non-FS AWD for FS Beast. I expect non-FS AWD and FS Beast to be delivered in parallel later this year.

 

[Gigahorse]

production rate is increasing
invitation rate has been decreasing

Production is still maxing out at about 50 trucks a day, a full quarter after deliveries began.
CTs are "sold out" for 2024
Invitations are still going out
= FS well into 2025 at this rate

 

[agordon117]

Production is still maxing out at about 50 trucks a day

Do you have a source for this information?

There were 72 trucks outside during the small window of the flyover yesterday, and another 63 today. This would imply that more than 72 trucks left the factory yesterday, and more than 63 left today (unless you somehow assume the 10 minute flyover window represented the entire output for the day).

 

[Gigahorse]

Do you have a source for this information?

There were 72 trucks outside during the small window of the flyover yesterday, and another 63 today. This would imply that more than 72 trucks left the factory yesterday, and more than 63 left today (unless you somehow assume the 10 minute flyover window represented the entire output for the day).

They are getting 70+ trucks out a day, but other days there are none rolling off the line, avg is still about 50 on the optimistic side. Combination of VIN data, flyovers, deliveries in pipeline, etc.

 

[seadsmoney]

33/day

Invitations are still going out [...]
FS well into 2025 at this rate

Invitations are "still going out" but only a trickle, approaching zero sometime in next few weeks.

Production is not "maxing out" nor is "this rate" a constant. FS fulfillment will reach 100% of allotment by late summer or early fall.

 

[Gigahorse]

Invitations are "still going out" but only a trickle, approaching zero sometime in next few weeks.

Production is not "maxing out" nor is "this rate" a constant. FS fulfillment will reach 100% of allotment by late summer or early fall.

I would say production is maxed for what they can do currently.

approaching zero sometime in next few weeks.

Do you have info that they are stopping invites in the next few weeks, or just a guess?

 

[seadsmoney]

Do you have info that they are stopping invites in the next few weeks, or just a guess?

see op

 

[evnow]

Production is still maxing out at about 50 trucks a day, a full quarter after deliveries began.
CTs are "sold out" for 2024
Invitations are still going out
= FS well into 2025 at this rate

I'd take Elons "sold out" comments with a pinch of salt.

If they are still at 50 a day in December 2024, then, they are in deep trouble (in terms of CT). You are betting they will not fix the production hell this year and I'm guessing they will. My guess is they will be churning out 10k a month in December (or 400 a day).

 

[Spacenoddle]

Production is still maxing out at about 50 trucks a day, a full quarter after deliveries began.
CTs are "sold out" for 2024
Invitations are still going out
= FS well into 2025 at this rate

This is so depressing forecast!

 

[Spacenoddle]

I'd take Elons "sold out" comments with a pinch of salt.

If they are still at 50 a day in December 2024, then, they are in deep trouble (in terms of CT). You are betting they will not fix the production hell this year and I'm guessing they will. My guess is they will be churning out 10k a month in December (or 400 a day).

i don't see they can reach 10k per month in Dec, maybe 5K

 

[evnow]

i don't see they can reach 10k per month in Dec, maybe 5K

They may not .... but I don't see why they can't.

They reached near full capacity for Model X in 4 quarters (and we know they had all sorts of issues with X). With CT we are only talking about reaching 1/2 the capacity in 4 quarters .... and we are just half way through the first quarter.

 

[Gigahorse]

This is so depressing forecast!

Just a forecast, hoping that we get some production numbers that give us a better outlook.

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