Honoring Original Estimated Pricing

[ZARDOZ]

I apologize that you find being told (the factual results of your positions) toxic.

Maybe don't do the toxic thing, rather than blaming others.

-Crissa

I've not said anything toxic here; you have. Typical.

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[ÆCIII]

The consumer credits are the same.

The manufacturer credits did not exist and are what reduces Teslas costs and the end price. Also, when the Cybertruck was launched, Teslas didn’t qualify for the consumer incentives either.

It can be a discussion on semantics, but even back in 2018 before the incentives started winding down with inflation at 2 percent, most everyone still wanted the tax incentives of course.

Whatever benefits were being realized from the credits back then, are now just absorbed by increased prices due to the very high inflation, so it's really like no incentives today compared to 2018.

Evaluating credits themselves due to inflation, the $7500 tax credit in 2018 really should be $8981 dollars today, if we're keeping incentives equal and comparing apples to apples. It would've been worth even a lot more a year ago when inflation was peaking even much higher.

So today's 'incentives' are worth $1481 dollars less than they were in 2018.

https://www.in2013dollars.com/us/inflation/2018?amount=7500

- ÆCIII

 

[Ogre]

It can be a discussion on semantics, but even back in 2018 before the incentives started winding down with inflation at 2 percent, most everyone still wanted the tax incentives of course.

Whatever benefits were being realized from the credits back then, are now just absorbed by increased prices due to the very high inflation, so it's really like no incentives today compared to 2018.

Evaluating credits themselves due to inflation, the $7500 tax credit in 2018 really should be $8981 dollars today, if we're keeping incentives equal and comparing apples to apples. It would've been worth even a lot more a year ago when inflation was peaking even much higher.

So today's 'incentives' are worth $1481 dollars less than they were in 2018.

https://www.in2013dollars.com/us/inflation/2018?amount=7500

- ÆCIII

You seem to be missing my point.

There are 2 credit.

The well known consumer credit for $7500.

Also the Advanced Materials Production credit which is $45/ kWh of the pack produced. This credit did not exist prior to the IRA.

The first the Cybertruck would not have qualified for prior to the IRA reboot.

The second did not exist at all. So saying incentives are worth less now makes no sense.

 

[ÆCIII]

You seem to be missing my point.

There are 2 credit.

The well known consumer credit for $7500.

Also the Advanced Materials Production credit which is $45/ kWh of the pack produced. This credit did not exist prior to the IRA.

The first the Cybertruck would not have qualified for prior to the IRA reboot.

The second did not exist at all. So saying incentives are worth less now makes no sense.

It takes $55,000 dollars today, to go as far $45,931 did back in 2018, so even having two credits - with a $9,069 inflationary price increase, most of the credits are still eaten up by inflation no matter what they're called.

Of course Tesla has done some price cuts of their own which masks this to some extent, so thank goodness for Tesla's clean business model and economy of scale.

https://www.in2013dollars.com/us/inflation/2018?amount=45931

- ÆCIII

 

[Bill906]

I've not said anything toxic here; you have. Typical.

I found the following comment you made "toxic".

Maybe he means the formula changing and the government printing too much money.

Saying the government prints to much money is definitely political, and has a subtle indirect way of implying your feelings on the matter without directly saying it. Bless your heart.

 

[Ogre]

It takes $55,000 dollars today, to go as far $45,931 did back in 2018, so even having two credits - with a $9,069 inflationary price increase, most of the credits are still eaten up by inflation no matter what they're called.

First, the truck was launched at the very end of 2019. So you are chunking some extra inflation in there.

Second, I deliberately used a high inflation rate in my example of 30% inflation—you are only talking about ~20% inflation. If anything your numbers are more generous than what I suggested.

Using your numbers.

Dual motor Cybertruck launch price: $50k.
Inflation (your 20% number here): $10k.
IRA Advanced Materials Production Credit: $4,600

Inflation adjusted price to consumer: $55,400.
IRA Consumer Tax Credit: $7,500.
Final price to consumer: $47,900.

Does that make more sense? This is using your inflation numbers. IRA rebates apply coming and going and are massive.

 

[ÆCIII]

First, the truck was launched at the very end of 2019. So you are chunking some extra inflation in there.

Second, I deliberately used a high inflation rate in my example of 30% inflation—you are only talking about ~20% inflation. If anything your numbers are more generous than what I suggested.

Using your numbers.

Dual motor Cybertruck launch price: $50k.
Inflation (your 20% number here): $10k.
IRA Advanced Materials Production Credit: $4,600

Inflation adjusted price to consumer: $55,400.
IRA Consumer Tax Credit: $7,500.
Final price to consumer: $47,900.

Does that make more sense? This is using your inflation numbers. IRA rebates apply coming and going and are massive.

Oh, I'm not saying I wouldn't take them. One of my points was simply that if inflation had remained slightly under 2 % and we still get these same incentives now, we'd be in an even better position buying the CT.

My original post #333 in this thread, was saying that I don't think Tesla should have to be the one eating price increases caused by inflation. They didn't cause it, and they certainly don't deserve to bear the costs of it, even though some seem to be suggesting they do.

What you have pointed out basically confirms what I was advocating for in post #333, in that those responsible for inflation are actually helping to offset the EV inflationary cost increases. Sorry if I didn't seem to be totally getting this. You're right in that I was not keenly aware of the Advanced Materials Production credit either, as I think I had heard of it but was not familiar with the details.

Yes your numbers make perfect sense. These tax incentives will help buyers feel less of an inflation pinch when purchasing an EV.

I just think there should not be this much inflation in the first place, and then we still get the same incentives (if they're environmentally conscientious and genuine about it).

So we could've had this outcome:

​

Dual motor Cybertruck launch price: $50k.​

Inflation (slightly less than 2% annual): $5k.​

IRA Advanced Materials Production Credit: $4,600​

​

Inflation adjusted price to consumer: $50,400.​

IRA Consumer Tax Credit: $7,500.​

Final price to consumer: $42,900.​

When you have someone create a crisis and then rescue people from the crisis they created, there is really not much net benefit and people are basically closer to where they started.

-ÆCIII

 

[Ogre]

Oh, I'm not saying I wouldn't take them. One of my points was simply that if inflation had remained slightly under 2 % and we still get these same incentives now, we'd be in an even better position buying the CT.

Gotcha.

I knew there was a missed context there somewhere.

As for the rest, it’s all woulda-coulda-shoulda. It’s been a weird 3 years since Tesla announced the truck.

 

[firsttruck]

....
When you have someone create a crisis and then rescue people from the crisis they created, there is really not much net benefit and people are basically closer to where they started.

-ÆCIII

So you are saying the COVID pandemic & economic slow down was a created crisis?

 

[jerhenderson]

The number of people who flip their truck will be a drop in the bucket. Your just looking for something to worry about.

less than a drop.

 

[mhaze]

I've not said anything toxic here; you have. Typical.

As one who saw ZARDOZ in the theaters when it first came out, I would not dare question the great flying stoned head.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zardoz

 

[Crissa]

I've not said anything toxic here; you have. Typical.

Typical?

Yeesh.

It takes $55,000 dollars today, to go as far $45,931 did back in 2018, so even having two credits - with a $9,069 inflationary price increase, most of the credits are still eaten up by inflation no matter what they're called.

Of course Tesla has done some price cuts of their own which masks this to some extent, so thank goodness for Tesla's clean business model and economy of scale.

https://www.in2013dollars.com/us/inflation/2018?amount=45931

The Cybertruck wasn't priced to sell in 2018. It was priced to sell in 2022. Plus whatever time to get through the reservation list.

So uhh... Maybe your base assumptions are a little bit off?

Also, there's a base inflation rate that's supposed be between 2 to 4 percent. So that had to have been assumed in the price.

So you are saying the COVID pandemic & economic slow down was a created crisis?

I'm going to assume that was a typo on AEIII's part.

-Crissa

 

[ÆCIII]

Typical?

Yeesh.


The Cybertruck wasn't priced to sell in 2018. It was priced to sell in 2022. Plus whatever time to get through the reservation list.

So uhh... Maybe your base assumptions are a little bit off?

Also, there's a base inflation rate that's supposed be between 2 to 4 percent. So that had to have been assumed in the price.


I'm going to assume that was a typo on AEIII's part.

-Crissa

Yes I realized the Cybertruck was priced to sell in 2022, and that's why I did allow for just under 2 percent inflation in my reply to Ogre in post #352,

Dual motor Cybertruck launch price: $50k.​

Inflation (slightly less than 2% annual): $5k.​

IRA Advanced Materials Production Credit: $4,600​

​

Inflation adjusted price to consumer: $50,400.​

IRA Consumer Tax Credit: $7,500.​

Final price to consumer: $42,900.​

because that's roughly where the inflation rate was between 2016 and 2021:

I did mention 2018 as a reference starting point in my previous posts, but that had nothing to do with the Cybertruck reveal specifically, because the incentives were for more Tesla models than just the Cybertruck.

I also think Tesla's pricing the Cybertruck to sell in 2022, was based on the stable roughly 2 percent inflation rate at that time, as it had been at that rate at least three years before their initial reveal.

I don't think we should limit ourselves to historical base rates, but rather always try to optimize and do better. We had a very nice trend just below the so called base rates in the five years leading up to 2021. If Tesla had limited their vision and standards to what establishment talking heads were squawking, or what historically legacy auto had been doing, then we would never even have the optimized Teslas of today, and there would be no reason for this site or forum. So I don't think we should always limit ourselves to history.

Receiving financial relief immediately after financial stress, is really nothing gained and simply a numbers game.

- ÆCIII

 

[Crissa]

...that's why I did allow for just under 2 percent inflation in my reply to Ogre in post #352,

Where it was, was still on average, more than a percent lower than it should have been, tho. you're right, we shouldn't let pas performance guide us, but prepare for more. A business than didn't hedge for minor inflation over the median will end up like SVB.

-Crissa

 

[mhaze]

Yes I realized the Cybertruck was priced to sell in 2022, and that's why I did allow for just under 2 percent inflation in my reply to Ogre in post #352,

Dual motor Cybertruck launch price: $50k.​

Inflation (slightly less than 2% annual): $5k.​

IRA Advanced Materials Production Credit: $4,600​

​

Inflation adjusted price to consumer: $50,400.​

IRA Consumer Tax Credit: $7,500.​

Final price to consumer: $42,900.​

because that's roughly where the inflation rate was between 2016 and 2021:

I did mention 2018 as a reference starting point in my previous posts, but that had nothing to do with the Cybertruck reveal specifically, because the incentives were for more Tesla models than just the Cybertruck.

I also think Tesla's pricing the Cybertruck to sell in 2022, was based on the stable roughly 2 percent inflation rate at that time, as it had been at that rate at least three years before their initial reveal.

I don't think we should limit ourselves to historical base rates, but rather always try to optimize and do better. We had a very nice trend just below the so called base rates in the five years leading up to 2021. If Tesla had limited their vision and standards to what establishment talking heads were squawking, or what historically legacy auto had been doing, then we would never even have the optimized Teslas of today, and there would be no reason for this site or forum. So I don't think we should always limit ourselves to history.

Receiving financial relief immediately after financial stress, is really nothing gained and simply a numbers game.

- ÆCIII

The last five years have a solid 25% inflation in total. Not nice but we have to deal with reality here. And that 25% is across the board, not industry specific.

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