How long before ICE is out? (New ICE truck sales drop)

How long before ICE trucks become relegated to niche uses. (less than 10% of pickups sold)


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Ogre

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I do wonder though...

The US population didn't cry too hard with increases in alcohol and tobacco taxes. But when it comes to fuel, I think many would see it as base corruption to limit their freedom to burn all the Dubai juice. Even with an affordable alternative.
Well tobacco taxes just hurt the poor & uneducated and both are seen as discouraging "bad" behaviors.

Fuel is necessary to lubricate the gears of the economy and affects everyone. Or at least that's the perception.
 

firsttruck

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In the U.S. there sure is a lot of talk about their freedom.

With gas vehicles everyday and forever you are depend on centralized supply network and remote (to you) resources ( Mideast oil field, Texas oil field, or Iowa corn field).
DEPENDENCE

Many people do not understand that with solar panels on their homes & workplaces and electric vehicles they have true independence for 20 years. Everyday leave home or work with a full tank of electricity (battery). This is real freedom.
 

tmeyer3

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Well tobacco taxes just hurt the poor & uneducated and both are seen as discouraging "bad" behaviors.

Fuel is necessary to lubricate the gears of the economy and affects everyone. Or at least that's the perception.
Most Americans haven't done the math to realize that the ROI for a standard model 3 is MUCH better than the sticker price alone. I am convinced that most households that can afford a new commuter vehicle can afford a model 3/y over the course of 200k miles. I think fuel tax would be possible and palatable (good word, gonna steal it) if the following conditions are first met--WATCHOUT, I'M GOING POLITICAL, OH GOD NOOOO:
  • Better education, like you said, concerning the cost of ownership of vehicles. Frankly, this should be an estimated metric just like mpg, range, or curb weight--on ALL vehicles. This alone makes most long-range BEVs more affordable than they appear.
  • Better science education in general...
  • Americans will gladly take money from the government, but throw a tantrum if it's taken. To this end, I think the incentives are not wrong and significantly help with the ROI of BEVs. Though they do to tend to add stupid rules to them and intentionally create odd biases. I don't know why this is so hard for them to manage fairly...
  • A tax on vehicles as opposed to tax on fuel. This is a silly distinction, but it's the same idea as smog checks. If someone wants to buy gas for niche vehicles that have yet to have a better and affordable alternative, they should be allowed to do so without massive taxing (tractors, boats, etc). But for vehicles with multiple affordable alternatives available, they should be taxed at vehicle purchase. Sort of the antithesis of tax credits for BEVs, leveling the playing field.
 
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  • Better education, like you said, concerning the cost of ownership of vehicles.
As quality EV ownership increases, word gets out. Tesla has re-written the rulebook for grass-roots advertising. Simply these vehicles are so much better than their ICE counterparts, the owners cannot resist talking them up.

  • A tax on vehicles as opposed to tax on fuel.
This is even less likely to happen than a fuel tax.

Very few politicians on either side of the fence have the political stomachs to pass policy which will hit 2 major industrial stalwarts in the broadside like that. Not only do you have 2 major "Go team USA" companies which would get hurt badly by this, you'd also have.

* Unions up in arms - If big auto gets broadsided, UAW jobs get lost.
* Pension funds - Lots of retirement dollars invested in these companies.
* Actual Pensions - These companies haven't pre-funded their pensions.

Plus all the people working for big auto, their families, component makers, door makers, etc etc.

That... plus there is no possible way you could tax a truck enough. A $1/ gallon tax on fuel is equal to an increase of tens of thousands at the time of purchase.
 


Crissa

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There's also the majority who can't afford the average new car, who are locked into this higher TCO relationship with gasoline.

That's why investment in housing and alternative transportation modes is important. The pure fact that most of our village and town cores are lower population density than they were fifty, a hundred, hundred and fifty years ago should tell us we're making this harder than it has to be somehow.

But people get wedded to that gasoline price.

-Crissa
 

tmeyer3

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That... plus there is no possible way you could tax a truck enough. A $1/ gallon tax on fuel is equal to an increase of tens of thousands at the time of purchase.
That's a very good point. I stand corrected!
 

jhogan2424

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My struggling musician neighbor has a habit of practicing his saxophone on Sunday mornings while I’m trying to sleep. I don’t like that. If I can tax saxophone playing he won’t be able to afford it and I will be happy. That’s all that matters.
 
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My struggling musician neighbor has a habit of practicing his saxophone on Sunday mornings while I’m trying to sleep. I don’t like that. If I can tax saxophone playing he won’t be able to afford it and I will be happy. That’s all that matters.
Just curious. Does your musician neighbors sax cause the government to spend billions of dollars mitigating the sound?

I am not opposed to noise regulations, particularly not if they actually enforce them against people with Harley's and trucks with straight pipes.
 

jhogan2424

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Just curious. Does your musician neighbors sax cause the government to spend billions of dollars mitigating the sound?

I am not opposed to noise regulations, particularly not if they actually enforce them against people with Harley's and trucks with straight pipes.
Oh I’m not worried about the government spending money to mitigate the sound, they can just tax my other neighbor even more to cover it. win win
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