How long to 50k Trucks delivered? (Plotted out)

[charliemagpie]

Goodness me.


If Tesla has 1,3 million orders (and counting), IF we take away 30% just to round it out to an easy 1 million.

Really ?
it will take 5 years to satisfy all the orders?
(Allowing for an apparent slow legacy ramp)

What about new orders?


Capped at 250,000, Only if Tesla is willing to lose its customers to the competition. Common sense.

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[Jhodgesatmb]

Musk actually said 250k - 300k “Or More”.

Regardless, this is why I showed 2 scenarios on my model. It really doesn’t make a ton of difference for the first 2 years, even if they are ramping to 500k, it’ll take time to get there.

I do not recall him saying that but I believe it. More importantly, I agree that it doesn’t make a difference until 2025 or so.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

Goodness me.


If Tesla has 1,3 million orders (and counting), IF we take away 30% just to round it out to an easy 1 million.

Really ?
it will take 5 years to satisfy all the orders?
(Allowing for an apparent slow legacy ramp)

What about new orders?


Capped at 250,000, Only if Tesla is willing to lose its customers to the competition. Common sense.

While what you are saying makes sense (with a big assumption on how many reservations there actually are), I was just going by what he said and not applying any reasoning to it.

 

[Crissa]

The only thing that seems to stop Tesla ramps is supply.

-Crissa

 

[JeffnReno]

The Cybertruck will be backward compatible with the Supercharger Network.

Who said it wouldn't?

There will also be no problem charging at home.

You are right about the L2 charging since the inverter in the car will be changing the AC incoming into what ever the voltage is needed for the DC battery. As for the Supercharging, since Teslas are currently using a 400vdc battery and and are charged at that rate bypassing the inverter since it isn't required for DCFC, I read somewhere that it may get the higher voltage that some have speculated is being used on the Semi. Tesla could step up the incoming voltage from the DCFC source to match the vehicle needs and will probably do so to alleviate such issues. Maybe we will find out more this week.

 

[Bill906]

Tesla could step up the incoming voltage from the DCFC source to match the vehicle needs and will probably do so to alleviate such issues.

How are you proposing the vehicle will "step up" the incoming DC voltage? A DC to DC converter at those sizes (150kW, 250kW, 350kW...) would be huge.

 

[JeffnReno]

How are you proposing the vehicle will "step up" the incoming DC voltage? A DC to DC converter at those sizes (150kW, 250kW, 350kW...) would be huge.

Well it's either that or keep the voltage at 400vdc and install huge heavy batteries to meet the range estimates they have suggested that are north of 500 miles in a heavy truck platform. I'm no electrical engineer but Tesla probably has a few on staff to come up with a solution.

 

[TyPope]

It makes more sense to allow the Cybertruck to communicate with the charging station and the station changes voltage to the car. That way, the bulky conversion crap happens off-vehicle. Most of the time, we just need 120V AC and 240 V AC conversion onboard for charging at home or at destination chargers where speed isn't as much of a concern. Keep the Super-Duper DC Fast Chargers near highways and other pathways that people use when they are in a hurry.

Most people could probably get by with a slow 120V 20 Amp line e to charge overnight each day. 14 hours on a charger would net between 42 and 56 miles per night.

However, that first 800V or 1,000V (whichever it ends up being), if it allows for more than just a couple of minutes of charging, is going to be a nice little treat!

 

[HaulingAss]

Well it's either that or keep the voltage at 400vdc and install huge heavy batteries to meet the range estimates they have suggested that are north of 500 miles in a heavy truck platform. I'm no electrical engineer but Tesla probably has a few on staff to come up with a solution.

Actually, just because the vehicle is natively high voltage doesn't mean the battery pack cannot be charged at a lower voltage by splitting the pack into lower voltage sub-packs.

Also, the battery weight of a vehicle with a lower voltage pack is almost exactly equal to that of a higher voltage vehicle. The difference is less than one percent and is only due to less resistive losses in the higher voltage vehicle.

 

[mhaze]

I dont believe anyone outside employees and some hand picked influencers ( ? ) will get any for quite some time. Has anyone even spotted a truck towing even once thus far? The semis were seen towing a long time before deliveries

The perfect road for testing CT with and without trailers is a stretch of about 50 miles of the I130 low traffic tollroad right in front of the Texas Austin factory. There is no way CT cannot be seen on that road. There's no other way to or from the factory.

 

[mhaze]

If we go with that figure, 75K will come faster than many expect.
Seeing my reservation sits about there, l suggest Australia won't see deliveries for _QUITE SOME TIME_
_'Its The Vibe'_

Don't worry I heard there were some ships full of cars that went down in the ocean (glub glub glub) these Cybertrucks will drive off that sinking ship and head your way. You did order FSD right?

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