Musk on Affordable Electric Truck

[happy intruder]

Seems like Elon talked about it alot. That it takes alot of crates and will take alot of time to get installed. I don't know why we hadn't seen it yet, maybe it got bumped from its boat? Maybe they're waiting for the Model Y casting machines to be dialed in before it shows up. It does have to wait its turn.

-Crissa

Crissa, thats all true but it was the same with the "Y" presses, although we did not have a war in Europe going on then but had pandemic.....Elon talks about a lot of things but never really gives a answer that is not bordering on the edge of "now you see me, now you dont"

the giga press is the long pole in the tent and it should have more attention and visibility to the 1.2 million reservation holders......with what we dont know about the giga press, my money is on late 2023 or mid 2024 for conclusion of design and beta testing, certification and approval for sales....then comes and production ramp up.....

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[SpaceYooper]

The pandemic and chip shortage together were next to impossible to predict (in terms of economic impact) and I doubt anyone "priced" those factors into anything 3 years ago. I'm not assuming folks at Tesla are stupid, but I'm not saying that they are economic oracles, either.

True...which is why I said

they knew they would have to pad their price beyond those rates since they didn't even have a factory started.

They didn't have to know exactly what they were padding against. They just had to know there would be unknowns that could lie ahead in the years it was going to take a build the factory. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to know you don't know everything. It also doesn't take one to know you are going out on a limb by advertising a price years before the vehicle releases. Any company worth a crap hedges their risks. By saying they have to increase their prices from the initial release, you are saying Tesla wasn't savvy enough to recognize this. To that, I disagree.

 

[SpaceYooper]

The OP said as much, don’t you think, on reading the entire post?

No, I don't think he did. He mentioned upward adjustments twice.

He said sizeable adjustment in the first paragraph and then said the adjustment could be relatively minor in the second paragraph.

I would ask relative to what, but to me, it doesn't matter. If I believe they were smart enough to hedge their gamble on releasing the CT price years before the factory was built, then I don't believe a price increase is warranted. I don't believe they threw those prices out there without significant thought and cushion.

 

[swengl]

No, I don't think he did. He mentioned upward adjustments twice.

He said sizeable adjustment in the first paragraph and then said the adjustment could be relatively minor in the second paragraph.

I would ask relative to what, but to me, it doesn't matter. If I believe they were smart enough to hedge their gamble on releasing the CT price years before the factory was built, then I don't believe a price increase is warranted. I don't believe they threw those prices out there without significant thought and cushion.

Part of the reason I disagree is that I don't think Musk & Co thought it would take this long to get the CT on the road. Many of the reasons I stated (pandemic and resulting chip shortage) were NOT planned for and couldn't be accounted for when they originally unveiled the CyberTruck. Saying "I hope" they don't raise the price as much as Rivian is not contradicting the fact that I believe it will be a sizable adjustment (around 15%). Until we see actual prices, we are all wildly speculating anyway.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

The pandemic and chip shortage together were next to impossible to predict (in terms of economic impact) and I doubt anyone "priced" those factors into anything 3 years ago. I'm not assuming folks at Tesla are stupid, but I'm not saying that they are economic oracles, either.

Neither the pandemic nor the chip shortage or other supply chain issues (like shipping) are long-term factors that should adversely affect CT prices if they push CT production out a year as they have.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

Crissa, thats all true but it was the same with the "Y" presses, although we did not have a war in Europe going on then but had pandemic.....Elon talks about a lot of things but never really gives a answer that is not bordering on the edge of "now you see me, now you dont"

the giga press is the long pole in the tent and it should have more attention and visibility to the 1.2 million reservation holders......with what we dont know about the giga press, my money is on late 2023 or mid 2024 for conclusion of design and beta testing, certification and approval for sales....then comes and production ramp up.....

I don't understand your reasoning and it doesn't make sense. Tesla has proven that giga castings save big time in machining complexity, time, and cost. They have proven that large additional savings are possible with both front and rear single-piece castings. So what makes the gigapress the long pole of the tent? I would say that the gigapress is the most predictable feature of the truck. They just need to get them delivered, installed, and tested. Battery production should be well under way by mid year so that isn't a long pole and will help in keeping costs down. Exoskeleton production may end up being a larger factor than originally thought and nothing has been said about it in a long time. For my money the largest issue remains HW 4 and other camera and sensor availability issues. I am certain that all of these would have been thought of in terms of pricing so it is confusing what Musk's concerns are if not the current supply-chain problems, which 'will' end.

 

[SpaceYooper]

Part of the reason I disagree is that I don't think Musk & Co thought it would take this long to get the CT on the road. Many of the reasons I stated (pandemic and resulting chip shortage) were NOT planned for and couldn't be accounted for when they originally unveiled the CyberTruck. Saying "I hope" they don't raise the price as much as Rivian is not contradicting the fact that I believe it will be a sizable adjustment (around 15%). Until we see actual prices, we are all wildly speculating anyway.

Again, the specific reasons don't have to be planned for...they just need to build a cushion beyond what they can justifiably predict (like traditional inflation rates) when releasing a price for something that won't come to market for several years. Plan, budget, predict as much as you can for the future, then build a cushion for surprises.

You don't think they thought it was going to take a couple of years when they didn't have the factory they were going to build the truck in, nor the batteries they knew they intended to put into the truck, all while trying to create a truck in an unproven way, while also trying to appease some of the hardest to please and most loyal ICE fan bases (full-size truck owners)?

Do you not think they released their pricing based on predictable inflation rates a few years out?

Do you not think they then padded that number in any way to account for surprises?

Or do you believe they accounted for inflation and padded the price for surprises and it's still going to be 15% more?

 

[TomGriff]

EV costs to build are going up fast and the least expensive EV now is $70,000 so the C truck should reflect that cost

Maybe I misread what you were trying to say, but most EVs, even at top trip level, are less than $70K including MY and M3.

 

[FutureBoy]

I bet my left knacker. Just put your knacker on the table, and the bet is on !


A probable adjustment, maybe inflation or extras that couldn't be resisted, not miscalculation.

Less than 10% increase if at all

Hmmmm… I don’t actually keep any knackers around. The few times I’ve needed one, they come with the related services I’m already paying for.

To each his own I suppose.

knack·er
/ˈnakər/

noun

1. BRITISH
   a person whose business is the disposal of dead or unwanted animals, especially those whose flesh is not fit for human consumption.

 

[happy intruder]

I don't understand your reasoning and it doesn't make sense. Tesla has proven that giga castings save big time in machining complexity, time, and cost. They have proven that large additional savings are possible with both front and rear single-piece castings. So what makes the gigapress the long pole of the tent? I would say that the gigapress is the most predictable feature of the truck. They just need to get them delivered, installed, and tested. Battery production should be well under way by mid year so that isn't a long pole and will help in keeping costs down. Exoskeleton production may end up being a larger factor than originally thought and nothing has been said about it in a long time. For my money the largest issue remains HW 4 and other camera and sensor availability issues. I am certain that all of these would have been thought of in terms of pricing so it is confusing what Musk's concerns are if not the current supply-chain problems, which 'will' end.

I was not talking about the "cost" or complexity......my issue is the timing of one of the biggest pieces of equipment that the CT requires in manufacturing....there has been nothing said about it for many weeks.....without it, there will be a very long process to produce production CTs.......your comment "what makes the giga press the long pole of the tent? I would say that the gigapress is the most predictable feature of the truck. They just need to get them delivered, installed, and tested." with that, I think you answered your own question...... that was my point and I thought I made it clear.....I said nothing about cost or complexity.....

can you tell us when the giga press is coming?.....once we see that date, we can maybe figure out how long it will take to install, test, certify and get up to production levels......all HW4, cameras and sensors are an issue and can be solved......supply chain will work itself out and probable before receipt of the giga press.......but I dont think production and certification will take place without the certification of the giga press which we have no information.....I am still betting on late 2023 early 2024 for production

 

[Bill906]

C Truck should be $20,000 more than Tesla's low-cost Model 3

I do not make this stuff up

You literally just made up the $20k price difference.

 

[Crissa]

C Truck should be $20,000 more than Tesla's lowest-cost Model 3, and...

A) Why?
B) That's with all the performance options. You can get many (most) of those cheaper if you get them on the secondary market.

Hmmmm… I don’t actually keep any knackers around. The few times...

He's Aussie. Their words don't usually make it to the dictionary. Especially not their... Uhh... Colorful ones.

can you tell us when the giga press is coming?

Probably this summer, after the Y presses have been dialed in and those crews aren't needed elsewhere installing stuff on the Y floor. The Gigapress is not needed for Cybertruck development... Just to make the price point in the end.

-Crissa

 

[charliemagpie]

Well, what knacker do you think I meant

 

[swengl]

Again, the specific reasons don't have to be planned for...they just need to build a cushion beyond what they can justifiably predict (like traditional inflation rates) when releasing a price for something that won't come to market for several years. Plan, budget, predict as much as you can for the future, then build a cushion for surprises.

You don't think they thought it was going to take a couple of years when they didn't have the factory they were going to build the truck in, nor the batteries they knew they intended to put into the truck, all while trying to create a truck in an unproven way, while also trying to appease some of the hardest to please and most loyal ICE fan bases (full-size truck owners)?

Do you not think they released their pricing based on predictable inflation rates a few years out?

Do you not think they then padded that number in any way to account for surprises?

Or do you believe they accounted for inflation and padded the price for surprises and it's still going to be 15% more?

I think the level of inflation will force them to raise the price of the CT 15%. I don't see Tesla lowering the price of their current fleet in the next few years with demand remaining as strong as it is. https://joinyaa.com/guides/tesla-price-increases/

 

[empiredown]

Great link. Thanks!

SS

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