windydrew

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thats never been proven outside elon saying it
Actually, I was on a forum where multiple model 3 owners say their early model was much better than the production hell and end of period versions that followed. I have an end of year model y with terrible orange peel black that supports this. So as long as they spend the time getting it right before release, like it seems they are, the Early CT should have great fit/ finish and also a solid drive train due to all the refinements from previous models. I guess only I'll be able to relay the message early next year being one of the few brave ones.
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Jhodgesatmb

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I have no choice, bring further back in the queue, but I am hoping the first set of issues, if there are any, are resolved by the time my number comes up.

That said, I wonder all the time where my reservation will ultimately fall, what with trim, location, cancellations, etc. I could imagine myself all the way down toward 50,000, and Giga Austin must be getting close to that with Model Ys by the end of the year (and especially considering the slow start with the transition from 4680s to 2170s).
 

kbolt

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I have no choice, bring further back in the queue, but I am hoping the first set of issues, if there are any, are resolved by the time my number comes up.

That said, I wonder all the time where my reservation will ultimately fall, what with trim, location, cancellations, etc. I could imagine myself all the way down toward 50,000, and Giga Austin must be getting close to that with Model Ys by the end of the year (and especially considering the slow start with the transition from 4680s to 2170s).
My guess is that with the trim shuffling everyone will be sent to the configurator in the order of their reservation number and then they will ship in batches based on geography. I'm guessing it's not of any use to look at your "trim position" anymore.
 

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My guess is that with the trim shuffling everyone will be sent to the configurator in the order of their reservation number and then they will ship in batches based on geography. I'm guessing it's not of any use to look at your "trim position" anymore.
I think this is what most people expect.
 


Jhodgesatmb

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My guess is that with the trim shuffling everyone will be sent to the configurator in the order of their reservation number and then they will ship in batches based on geography. I'm guessing it's not of any use to look at your "trim position" anymore.
It is though, because there will be associated price tiers. You cannot tell me that if Tesla builds a quad-motor first and sells it for $90K that everyone ahead of me will buy one. Some will and some won’t. Since I had reserved a tri-motor the price difference is less of a hurdle for me and I might still be able to afford it. So the trims still make a difference, albeit a different kind of difference. The result will be the same.
 

Ogre

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It is though, because there will be associated price tiers. You cannot tell me that if Tesla builds a quad-motor first and sells it for $90K that everyone ahead of me will buy one. Some will and some won’t. Since I had reserved a tri-motor the price difference is less of a hurdle for me and I might still be able to afford it. So the trims still make a difference, albeit a different kind of difference. The result will be the same.
If they are going to launch all 3 (or 4?) trims within the first year or so, then sure.

If there is going to be a multi-year delay, I think they will give people the opportunity to change their configuration. That is what they did with the 7 seat Model Y configuration and that was only a 1 year delay. Likewise if they are actually eliminating trims, they will give people the opportunity to switch.
 

Jhodgesatmb

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If they are going to launch all 3 (or 4?) trims within the first year or so, then sure.

If there is going to be a multi-year delay, I think they will give people the opportunity to change their configuration. That is what they did with the 7 seat Model Y configuration and that was only a 1 year delay. Likewise if they are actually eliminating trims, they will give people the opportunity to switch.
They will let people upgrade from the get go; they always do. That is what I was saying, but the real question is how many will accept the offer if it is beyond their capability. If I cannot afford the trim they offer first then I will have no choice, even if no one before me accepts, but to wait. And they will definitely start with a single trim. Within a year they will probably have a couple.
 

charliemagpie

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I think the stock will have to recover for a lot of orders.
 


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They will let people upgrade from the get go; they always do. That is what I was saying, but the real question is how many will accept the offer if it is beyond their capability. If I cannot afford the trim they offer first then I will have no choice, even if no one before me accepts, but to wait. And they will definitely start with a single trim. Within a year they will probably have a couple.
I was speaking to the question of whether the trim level you chose at launch matters. I do not think it does at this point. Your ability to afford a truck at that level when your number comes up absolutely does.

If they are only offering the Quad Zumba deluxe for $175,000 when my number is tapped, I’ll say “No thanks, I’d rather just retire a couple years sooner”.
 

Jhodgesatmb

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I was speaking to the question of whether the trim level you chose at launch matters. I do not think it does at this point. Your ability to afford a truck at that level when your number comes up absolutely does.

If they are only offering the Quad Zumba deluxe for $175,000 when my number is tapped, I’ll say “No thanks, I’d rather just retire a couple years sooner”.
At that price I would have to wait too, and at a much lower price as well. In fact, whatever trim they offer first (and my bet is thatvthere will only be 1), if it costs much more than the original price + inflation, and if the stock price doesn't go back to the pre-split price, then I am in trouble.
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