Is it a mistake to change car now while waiting for the CT?

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Carmageddon

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Yep. I'm right at the window for the consumables. Shocks, belts, sparkplugs, timing chain in the next 20-30k. Besides, that I only have one off-road trip planned, and that's not until the end of summer. Normally, we drive to Nantucket and do a little beach driving, but this year we're just flying and borrowing a friend's car.

Not driving to Colorado and wheeling later this summer either.

Like the OP... The question is just how soon would Tesla get to building a CTQ reservation #18000 or so, in my particular region? Do I take advantage of my trade and skip the big scheduled maintenance events?

I can have a MYP in 6-12 weeks.
  • 2021 MYPs are now selling for >$70k
  • My Jeep is trading for the price I paid for it originally
  • New MYP prices are only going to go up before the end of the year due to general global supply shortages. Shanghai is still backlogged with global imports/exports that haven't moved an inch in 7 weeks. The time it'll take for this to ripple and straighten out . . . ??? pfft.
  • Gas prices have already been climbing and it's not peak season in the U.S., so EVs will easily save you $3-4k by the end of the first year.
  • My Jeep gets 14 miles per gallon
Getting a MYP will freeze the trade value of my Jeep in the price of the MY instead of another year of wear and tear waiting for the CT. Fuel savings offsets taxes and then some. I avoid $2k of repair work that essentially takes away from what I'd ultimately get for my Jeep.

Yeah... I'm thinkin...

Note to OP... Don't lease if you're thinking about doing this.
obviously not leasing new its not economic for 2 years. But a well priced lease take over? why is that a bad idea?

you know about the supply chain, I’m thinking we will get surprised because everything is trending now towards decoupling economies - everyone is changing supply chains to not be dependent on offshore for critical parts anymore…
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Ogre

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yes about lease you are 100% correct but the difficulty is finding a lease takeover that is less than two years remaining, at leas mid sized suv and not much more monthly payment than the Kona.

I don’t understand your next paragraph, in two years I should probably have more equit in the kona, assuming gas cars don’t start hitting the bottom like a rock in value.
The phev is an unknown, are you saying phev valiue would be near 0, worse than gas cars?
I am thinking that if I were to take only 5 year financing on the 19 outlander phev, I should generally stay ahead of the depreciation, especially as it should not keep dropping as fast as first few years of life..

how do you figure 14k?
if current (crazy) market value is 28k or so, and calculator says 9k depreciation, so should be around the 20k ballpark, no?
You are comparing a leased car to a purchased one. (Assuming you are purchasing the Kona?)

With a lease you have no flexibility on timing and no value when it ends.

With a purchase, you keep it until you get the truck and its worth whatever you can sell it for less the payoff.

Mostly I hate leases in general, but in this case it only works well if you time it perfectly which is a huge question mark. What do you do if the lease ends and there is no Cybertruck ready for you?
 
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Carmageddon

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You are comparing a leased car to a purchased one. (Assuming you are purchasing the Kona?)

With a lease you have no flexibility on timing and no value when it ends.

With a purchase, you keep it until you get the truck and its worth whatever you can sell it for less the payoff.

Mostly I hate leases in general, but in this case it only works well if you time it perfectly which is a huge question mark. What do you do if the lease ends and there is no Cybertruck ready for you?
I currently own the Kona (financed).
if I switch to a lease, it would be a takeover, and if the CT isn’t ready yet when its done, i guess i will just take over another lease…
but what happens if the gap is only a few months?
i migh not fond a suitable lease takeover, or have gaps of time without a car… you are correct, doesn’t sound like a good idea.
 

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I have early CT tri motor reservation - approx. 10k in line on the trim, or 40k overall so I guess I should get one within a year of starting manufacturing.

I am currently with 2019 Hyundai Kona, we really need something larger but keep waiting and suffering in long distance with baby car seat etc.
Short distance around town its ok though.

Given current high prices for used gas cars, high gas prices which probably wont be really going down, and sometime soon people realizing gas is the old tech - prices will plummet.
So it feels like this is the right time to get rid of the Kona.

So I am considering selling, and getting a 2019 Outlander PHEV - more spacy, ~30km electric range for most in-town driving (so big gas savings!) and seems like exceptionally good value for money, although it doesn't have lane keep assist like unlike the Kona :(
I've run approximate TCO for 2 years comparison (assuming I'd get it within that timeframe!) on keeping it, vs owning the Outlander for that period - I am seeing almost identical numbers (in Canadian $)!
1652996938165.png


Do you think better to hold on? will PHEVs hold value once people realize gas tech is dead? the downside of course its a complex power train with 3 engines+12kw battery.. although 10 years/160k km warranty, so I am not sure how its resale and depreciation would look like in 2+ years.

I'd really appreciate further feedback helping me come up with a decision.
I've used this site to help too, it seems very optimistic plugging in my numbers:
https://www.omnicalculator.com/ecology/phev-economy

I think, from the standpoint of not owning a dying tech, lease takeover for 2 years is even better than owning another car especially for such (presumably!) short term, but seems very difficult finding a good deal like that with proper car size..
Yes.
 


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I think it's to many variables for anyone to give a reasonable recommendation. Since the Cybertruck was delayed I pulled a trigger on a new model y performance and havnt looked back. Resale value is high still and I can drive this for a couple years until the truck comes and I should still be able to sell at a reasonable price once my truck gets here if ever. I also have a tri motor on order and similarly priced as my MYP. Also I'm getting used to the whole Ev charging and driving which is definitely different than my last BMW V8 M3...instead of paying 600 a month on gas I'm at $75 for charging. Keep in mind my last car was 11 MPG 🥲
 

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If you can wait until 2025 for the Cybertruck just hang on. I'm earlier in line and closer to Austin and I've decided to wait until my Cybertruck arrives. I placed my preorder thinking I had a chance at a Cybertruck by 2023. Yes its disappointing to know I'm having to probable wait another 2 years from early estimates. But when I finally get my Cybertruck I'm sure I'll be glad I didn't buy a vehicle for a couple years to hold me over. Take the extra money saved and buy some TSLA stock. Just picked up more at $688 this morning.
 
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Carmageddon

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If you can wait until 2025 for the Cybertruck just hang on. I'm earlier in line and closer to Austin and I've decided to wait until my Cybertruck arrives. I placed my preorder thinking I had a chance at a Cybertruck by 2023. Yes its disappointing to know I'm having to probable wait another 2 years from early estimates. But when I finally get my Cybertruck I'm sure I'll be glad I didn't buy a vehicle for a couple years to hold me over. Take the extra money saved and buy some TSLA stock. Just picked up more at $688 this morning.
lol you think with our early reservation, it'll be around 2025?
 


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Way under 100k. The tracker says my reservation number puts me <18000 in the tri-motor line. I ordered early on the morning after the CT reveal.
My reservation number is 112830014 - puts me at about 87000 in line I think
 

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I suspect the MY resale to plummet to near normal deprecation next year. A million MY will be produced a year and the wait times will decrease for new.

$65k is a lot of money still in my world. The market is only so big at that level. Supply and demand price swings have been weird lately.
 

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lol you think with our early reservation, it'll be around 2025?
Hopefully, but again when I placed my reservation in the first 15 minutes into the unveiling, I was obviously over opportunistic that sales would begin in 2022 and I'd have mine by 2023. We still have no details what models will be produced in what order and at what price. Normally I would think higher price and 4 Motor version Musk mentioned (but no one has a preorder for) would be sold first. Given the slow progress with 4680s will that make economical sense unless its priced at a big premium over the other models and / or has less range than the proposed 3 motor version. So far it's 'probably" for 2023 and more recently production (not sales) in 2023.
 

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I had a 2017 Tundra, I sold it because the used truck market was great, and I wanted to get as much of my money back out of it as possible. I have a 2002 Subaru Outback(89,000mi) I bought for $4k I drive now. It's ok, it's reliable, and capable vehicle. I don't like it's size though, it doesn't seem built for 6' people, I hit my head on the frame getting in all the time. But I can live with all that, and drive it for years. It's going to be my spare ICE vehicle I keep around. My Cybertruck reservation(tri motor w/FSD) was from the 1st week, then I put in another identical 2nd reservation about 10 months later, just in case.
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