It is going to be hard to make it affordable

Dusty

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This is the part of speculation I hate and try not to get wrapped up in. But I feel like the first year will be the CT with the best margin for Tesla. I'm thinking the spec monster/high price version to spark demand then the lower spec will fly off the lines at volume 8 months to a year later, when the manufacturing process is streamlined.

I think the worst thing they can do is sell a truck that is only marginally better or merely equal to the Lightning. They need to put out a killer that makes the choice a no-brainer. And it can't just be the best electric truck it needs to be the best consumer truck.

I think they're initially aiming it at the Raptor/TRX/trophy truck buyer, not the economy work truck buyer. That's because initially they won't have the ability to have a work truck be economical and they won't have production numbers high enough to accommodate work fleets anyway. So the top spec trucks for weekend warriors and urban pothole crushers will probably roll out first. The top spec CT will cost a bit less than the Lightning Platinum($98k), and that's my guess. But my guess is no better than anyone else's.

And for more perspective.... Ford only delivered 5k Lightnings in Q1 this year, putting them on track to only deliver 20k. Even with ramping difficulties Tesla is going to gut them.
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Diehard

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To those of you that have been watching Tesla for a while, is it possible Tesla initially sells some CTs at higher price to some reservation holders and sells the same trim at lower price later to other reservation holders (at the same margin because they learn how to reduce production cost)? Or they will keep the prices fixed for all current reservation holders and just enjoy higher margins as they become more efficient?

It sounds like as of now they have not figured out how to produce it cheaply and expect demand to drop both due to high interest rates and hi production cost (price).
 

ninja6r

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Look at the Lightning and all the ones sitting on lots for $80-110k. There's almost no market for trucks priced that high. Yes, this is a Tesla truck and unique, but you price it over $80K and I bet 50-75% of people back out. I know there are some 1.5 million reservations, but how many of those are the same person reserving 2+? No one knows, but it's not zero. Over $80k and I think you can expect to sell in numbers like the X or S. I think when Elon stated 250k-500k per year run rate, that right there should tell you it won't be in the same price range as those two.
 

CyberWomen

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The key to disrupt the market with the CT is the price.

Also, only tesla fan would want an oddly looking tesla truck, but if the price is lower than any other pickup everybody that need a pick up will buy it!
What you talkin' about?! It's frikkin gorgeous! 🤣
 


cvalue13

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I think when Elon stated 250k-500k per year run rate, that right there should tell you it won't be in the same price range as those two.
And he didn’t feint towards the 500k figure but once (compared to stating the 250K number 3-4 times), and then without much umph or confidence

in contrast to his earlier and full-throated assertion that the two new products coming will sell 5M/year between them - which indicates both a low price, and global market

and when speaking of the CT production, don’t overlook his trailing words:

“there will be an S-curve of production, and I guess we'll see what the demand is, we're likely to do a quarter million a year, maybe more, very much dependent on what the demand is like. We don't just need to ramp up production but improve production cost efficiency which is a very hard thing…. So 240k maybe 500k … We'll make as much as people want, but like I said it's going to be hard to make the cost affordable. In the grand scheme of things it will be small, but still very cool”
 

Coolbreeze704

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The key to disrupt the market with the CT is the price.

Also, only tesla fan would want an oddly looking tesla truck, but if the price is lower than any other pickup everybody that need a pick up will buy it!
I have always been in this camp. I have to say though if he is only expecting 250k a year to me it sounds like he realizes he can not price to disrupt and only the wise who will do their homework will get the reason to switch from Ford, Chevy, and Ram.
 

Mini2nut

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I’m afraid the Cybertruck will be priced only for the affluent. The truck is apparently going stuffed with the latest automotive technology with a price to match.

It would not shock me to see a $89,900 MSRP on the first trim level that goes into production this fall.

It’s the #1 reason why I have a plan B with other vehicle reservations.
 
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intimidator

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I interpret his 3X comments RE “we’ll see what demand is” are indirect references to this pricing question

If at this event he’s pegging 250K/year after the s-curve, is interesting
I hope people heard what Elon said....and not what they were hoping to hear.

For example, he said a handful of Cybertrucks by the end of this year, and then ramping in 2024 after the s-curve, "slowly at first". <---- translation It won't be 250,000 units in 2024.

My wild ass guess would be not a whole lot in the 1st part of 2024, picking up speed later in the year to finish at about 100,000 delivered in 2024.

Price? The Rivian is $75.000 to $90,000. The Lightning is similar (for Lariat and Platinum), so it would not surprise me if the first version of the CyberTruck was around $85,000+. Sigh.
 


Mini2nut

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The only way the Cybertruck will sell in high volume is by disrupting the current pickup truck market with a lower price point that undercuts the competition.

Truck buyers will overlook the polarizing styling if it offers a better value.
 

uscbucsfan

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I’m afraid the Cybertruck will be priced only for the affluent. It would not shock me to see a $89,900 MSRP on the first trim level that goes into production this fall.

It’s the #1 reason why I have a plan B with other vehicle reservations.
There's a lot of hints that initial CT will be priced above 80k. I think that's fine, just like the Plaid or Hummer, there will be people to pay that.

That doesn't mean there won't eventually be a lower priced truck, which is obviously essential for scale.

Last night was the first I heard Elon question demand, say it will have a small impact on the company, etc. In the past he was saying it would be the best selling truck in the world and disrupt the market. It sounds like they've still not figured out the production challenges he spoke about a year or so ago.
 

intimidator

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I’m afraid the Cybertruck will be priced only for the affluent. The truck is apparently going stuffed with the latest automotive technology with a price to match.

It would not shock me to see a $89,900 MSRP on the first trim level that goes into production this fall.

It’s the #1 reason why I have a plan B with other vehicle reservations.
I have a November 2019 CyberTruck reservation.

Yet, I took delivery of a Ford Lightning this spring....anticipating the slow CT ramp would push my CT delivery date until late 2025? and life goes on in the meantime.

I will say I have become a wee bit reserved over the last 4-5 months on the CyberTruck. The availability is such an unknown, and we don't know which version they will make at the beginning. I hope it is amazing.
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