It is going to be hard to make it affordable

Crissa

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“So the Cybertruck is a hard car to make. Because it’s such a radically new design, you can’t just use conventional methods of manufacturing. We had to invent a whole new set of manufacturing techniques in order to build an exoskeleton-based car instead of an endoskeleton-based car,”

He said this right before the statement on cost.
And the context of that isn't that the assembly will be difficult.

Setting up dominoes to fall just right is hard. Once you get them set up, tho... It's easy for them to fall in place.

-Crissa
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CyberJustice

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unpopular opinion but I don't mind it being priced out for a lot of people initially. I hope I get mine sooner, I'm sure after the lower trim models start to produce it will be widely affordable.
 

TheLastStarfighter

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Elon's words and tweets are read and analyzed like Bible texts by us Teslarati. But like the ancient books it's important to understand context and audience of the words to get the meaning. Elon was talking to shareholders. They don't care about getting their truck at a good price so much as selling as many trucks as possible with the best margins possible. Is it going to drive the needle of Tesla share price with new revenue?

What I gathered from his comments was that he was tempering expectations as to how much revenue - if any - the truck was going to generate for some time. He said there will be an s-curve - meaning a slow ramp up, slow down for adjustments and then take off to full volume, and that process could take a year or so. He then added that it will be "difficult to make it affordable", but what I think he actually meant in context was "It will be difficult to manufacture it affordably". Meaning, they will probably lose money on every truck shipped for a while until they figure everything out and optimize it. This is further supported by his additional comments about how it is a new process, with new tech. He said it will be awesome and efficient when optimized, but it will take time.

So I don't think anyone should take this as he was talking about the price of the truck, for good or bad. He added that they could sell 250k, or maybe even 500k if there is demand. That doesn't sound like a Hummer-priced vehicle to me. Premium trucks sell, but not in those numbers. The Raptor sells 30k, an Escalade 40k. A premium Tri- or Quad- CT could sell in that ballpark, but 250k per year will take a semi-affordable model.

My expectations remain the same as they have been through most of this waiting period. Prices will be up somewhat from reveal, production will start with a premium model that will be low-volume for 2023 and by 2024 they'll have bugs worked out and a dual motor will come in at a semi-affordable price in the ballpark of a decently optioned F-150 but less than the prestige trims like Raptors or King Ranches. I think a single motor is still on the table but probably a ways out.
 

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unpopular opinion but I don't mind it being priced out for a lot of people initially. I hope I get mine sooner, I'm sure after the lower trim models start to produce it will be widely affordable.
I agree. I'm in a nice low spot if they follow the reservation numbers at all. I'm lucky in my pricing-pain tolerance as well, with an odd personal limit.

I have to be honest, I'll feel a little embarrassed to drive a vehicle that is as "in your face" if it's excessively expensive. I've always owned custom sleepers of one type or another.

In the area I live, there are a bunch of "hustle bros" with chrome wrapped SLRs, Vettes, McLarens, Lamborghinis, etc., who drive around the local area together, all weekend long filming each other, and just being annoying. I don't want to look like that. I want the lower trim models to be available to get rid of the 'price exclusive' image.

I want the CT for what it can do, but I'm dreading the attention it's going to attract for the first two years of ownership.
 

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I agree. I'm in a nice low spot if they follow the reservation numbers at all. I'm lucky in my pricing-pain tolerance as well, with an odd personal limit.

I have to be honest, I'll feel a little embarrassed to drive a vehicle that is as "in your face" if it's excessively expensive. I've always owned custom sleepers of one type or another.

In the area I live, there are a bunch of "hustle bros" with chrome wrapped SLRs, Vettes, McLarens, Lamborghinis, etc., who drive around the local area together, all weekend long filming each other, and just being annoying. I don't want to look like that. I want the lower trim models to be available to get rid of the 'price exclusive' image.

I want the CT for what it can do, but I'm dreading the attention it's going to attract for the first two years of ownership.
It will likely be 5-8 years of attention, My Model X still gets more attention than a Ferrari every time I'm in a parking lot with the falcon wing doors up and that particular vehicle still looks like a normal car.
 


alexbeau

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Time stamped discussion of CT. Not sounding optimistic on the pricing.

Logically, if they are planning to sell anywhere near 250-500k units annually, it can't be a super-premium truck like the Hummer. It has to be price competitive with 1/2-ton pickup trucks currently on the market.

Otherwise, it will just never hit that kind of volume. There simply aren't enough people willing to spend $80-100k+ on a truck. Maybe some would spring for the premium option, but not 250k people per year.

If I had to make a prediction and don't quote me on this, I would base it around inflation since 2019 and say:

Single motor: $50k

Dual Motor: $60k

Tri or Quad motor (premium option): $80k

A typically-equipped Ford F-150 sells for $59,650 on average, putting the Cybertruck right in the ballpark and actually much more affordable when the total cost of ownership is considered.
 

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It will likely be 5-8 years of attention, My Model X still gets more attention than a Ferrari every time I'm in a parking lot with the falcon wing doors up and that particular vehicle still looks like a normal car.
In Northern VA Teslas are super common so Plaids slip under the radar. Porsches don't really get a second look either. Here, there's a dividing line in car-types where it's either incredibly loud or outwardly blatantly expensive and the attention seeking douchebag gene kicks in.
 

Crissa

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If I had to make a prediction and don't quote me on this, I would base it around inflation since 2019 and say:

Single motor: $50k

Dual Motor: $60k

Tri or Quad motor (premium option): $80k
Your prediction assumes that Tesla made a boo-boo and didn't plan for the two years of inflation from launch to delivery, let alone through production of the reservation queue.

If you assume they did the minimum, you get at most 10% cumulative inflation and you end up at $55k for the Dual and $78k for the Tri.

-Crissa
 

Sirfun

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Your prediction assumes that Tesla made a boo-boo and didn't plan for the two years of inflation from launch to delivery, let alone through production of the reservation queue.

If you assume they did the minimum, you get at most 10% cumulative inflation and you end up at $55k for the Dual and $78k for the Tri.

-Crissa
I shouldn't speak for everybody, but I think (most of us) reservation holders would have no problem with those numbers. Bring on The Cybertruck!!!!
 

Crissa

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I shouldn't speak for everybody, but I think (most of us) reservation holders would have no problem with those numbers. Bring on The Cybertruck!!!!
And I want to say I think Tesla should have expected 3-4% of inflation for five years when estimating their pricing; that way they had wriggle room if it was above or below expectations.

So I don't expect a 10% increase in prices, my guess is from 0-5%

However, initial model choice might obscure it.

-Crissa
 


uscbucsfan

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Your prediction assumes that Tesla made a boo-boo and didn't plan for the two years of inflation from launch to delivery, let alone through production of the reservation queue.

If you assume they did the minimum, you get at most 10% cumulative inflation and you end up at $55k for the Dual and $78k for the Tri.

-Crissa
Tesla had no clue how much it would cost to make the truck at the time, but no I think the biggest thing will be issues with the 4680s, the 4 motor, rear-wheel steering, and other additions that were not planned when the "pricing" was listed.

Elon didn't indicate that he has confidence in hitting the planned 4680 energy yields anytime in the immediate future.

I still think we absolutely see the dual motor for close to or at what was promised at some point, even if briefly.

I guess the point I'm making is, just because the initial price may be high as Elon has indicated, if they really want to ever hit 250k per year, they have to deliver something closer to what was originally promised. It's essential...or they are just making a truck version of the S/X which has very low demand.
 
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Longranger

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The tone of Elons comments worries me. It sounds like he is nearly resigned to having prices high enough to scare away many buyers, at least initially.

Like many others on this forum my interest is for a mid level cybertruck, not a truck that is over 100k, even if the price is somewhat justified by tech and performance. I do not want or need a loaded plaid cybertruck for hauling stuff, daily driving or camping.
 
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BayouCityBob

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And I want to say I think Tesla should have expected 3-4% of inflation for five years when estimating their pricing; that way they had wriggle room if it was above or below expectations.

So I don't expect a 10% increase in prices, my guess is from 0-5%

However, initial model choice might obscure it.

-Crissa
Battery costs were projected to decline by more than 30% from 2019 - 2023 from $156 to $101 (BNEF). The reality is they were back at $151 last year (coming down again this year). So a 200 kwh pack was forecast to be $20k industry average this year but instead it is $10k more than that.
 

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We will all know official MSRP’s and trim levels in early fall.

Bring on the Cybertruck and the configuration e-mails from Tesla!!!
 
 




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