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Keeping Expectation Grounded

TBONO

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IMO
New manufacturing efficiency's and battery/drivetrain costs will make EV's volatile to used dealers and the owners of EV's looking to sell them as new ev prices drop constantly over the next 5 years. This is a model T moment and EV's will constantly get cheaper.

Throw in J Powell taming inflation and historic rate hikes and Tesla is doing the smart thing to keep production growth up with current market conditions .

I have a Lightning and I know what i will face when I go to sell it next year. We are in unique times.
To amplify it look at what Tesla has just done by massively cutting pricing on model S plaid and model X up to $30,000 infuriating people who just paid that right before the discount with no warning.
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PilotPete

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Thank goodness that no human driver has ever run a red light or destroyed a car by ramming a stopped emergency vehicle!

Why is it we compare human drivers to the "average" of all humans. But FSD and the like are compared only to perfection?
 

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Is it confirmed that the federal rebate will be at the point of sale? I thought that was still up in the air...

--Lex
https://www.irs.gov/credits-deductions/clean-vehicle-credit-seller-or-dealer-requirements

Beginning in 2024, buyers will be able to transfer clean vehicle credits to dealers at the time of sale, and use the credit amount as a down payment at time of sale. To participate, dealers will need to register with the IRS in the future. Look for details on transfer of credit rules later in 2023
 

WheezyLex

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https://www.irs.gov/credits-deductions/clean-vehicle-credit-seller-or-dealer-requirements

Beginning in 2024, buyers will be able to transfer clean vehicle credits to dealers at the time of sale…
Thank you. ?

The next question is, will buyers have to qualify for the credit or they jus get the full $7,500 off the top automatically; i.e. under the current system, if buyers don’tactually owe anything to the government, it actually makes no difference if they get an “EV Credit” or not. I wouldn’t put it past the government to make buyers send a bunch of shit to the IRS and have to wait weeks to be approved before transferring that credit to the seller.

—Lex
 
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Crissa

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I wouldn’t put it past the government to make buyers send a bunch of shit to the IRS and have to wait weeks to be approved before transferring that credit to the seller.
That's not how the legislation was designed. The discount is up front and weeks later the seller gets the check.

-Crissa
 


WheezyLex

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That's not how the legislation was designed. The discount is up front and weeks later the seller gets the check.

-Crissa
Oh, well that’s good then. I haven’t read the legislation.Thank you for the clarification.
 

WheezyLex

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No worries. Pessimism is warranted.

-Crissa
Us USA citizens have been told one thing and another has happened in the past, for sure. I was disappointed from the beginning that they didn’t just put it at the dealership level immediately and frankly, in my opinion, the price requirements for certain types of vehicles that “qualify” make zero sense. The Model X, for example, now qualifies for the credit because it’s below a ridiculous $80,000 threshold, while it companion, the S, does not, despite it being a more practical vehicle for many, because its priced “too high.”

Pickup trucks, being the most popular type of vehicle in North America, are deeply overpriced, which is why the cap almost has to be so high, but allowing “Sport Utility Vehicles” to be eligible up to an $80k price level seems a bit ridiculous to me. ?‍♂

Anyways, regardless, here’s hoping the pricing for the CT isn’t insane and that Tesla eventually can also deliver on their promises for it regarding built-in solarpanels, camp mode/campers, etc.

?

—Lex
 

WHIZZARD OF OZ

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To amplify it look at what Tesla has just done by massively cutting pricing on model S plaid and model X up to $30,000 infuriating people who just paid that right before the discount with no warning.
Tesla have been pulling levers left, right and centre since January this year, at least! Writing was on the wall. When l finally get an Australian delivery, l'll just have to cough up the dough BOY!
 

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While we all wish the Cybertruck will be 49k for a dual motor and 69k for a tri-motor. Lets keep our expectation realistic. Here is a list of things that I feel that could be the worst case scenario.

- $79k starting price for the Dual Motor Variant
- lower than expected range
- FSD won't be enabled at launch, will come at a later software update
- No GPU in MCU, so the basic 3/Y system. No steam
- It might not be 4680 battery, there is the chance of using 2170 according to some rumors to accelerate the production ramp.
- No 2nd screen for the rear
- Manual rear gate
- Manual Frunk

I do hope when the Cybertruck is fully revealed, none of these predictions will come true. But would you be disappointed if any of the above came true?
I think if they charge $70K+ for the CT it’s definitely going to have Steam and a second screen in the rear (screen already confirmed). Also ambient lighting like the Model 3 refresh. I think the range will be 350ish on the launch model, but charging speed will be top of the line at 250kW+.

Not sure about the tailgate and the frunk both being automatic, but I’ll tell you this, Tesla will have some truly kick-ass accessories coming out for this thing. They have their own department for accessories. We’re talking roof racks, campers, toolboxes for the vault and/or the frunk, camp kitchens, etc.
 


CYBRSMTH

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I don't know if disappointed is the word I'd use, but I would not purchase it if either of the following were true.
- $79k starting price for the Dual Motor Variant (I have a CT3 reservation...you're essentially saying I should expect to pay over $100k; to which I say no effing way)
- lower than expected range (Again, 500+ or bust for me, nothing else will be considered)

Regarding...
- FSD at launch...I'm not sure how much I care. I reserved mine with FSD, but meh
- No GPU; no steam. Don't care
- Battery other then 4680, I don't really care. I only care about range and battery longevity. But I think there is 0% chance any CT will be delivered with anything other then the 4680.
- 2nd screen; don't care; never expected it
- Manual rear gate; don't care; will be like every other truck I've owned
- Manual frunk; don't care; will be like every other hood on a truck I've owned...except that it opens to more storage.
Tesla doesn’t currently have a 500+ mile vehicle. The 4680 battery’s energy density didn’t increase as rapidly as expected. It’s getting there, but slowly. I think something in the 400s would be possible, but depending on demand they may want to just churn out as many CTs as possible. Charging speed is an equally important factor, as is how much range is lost when hauling and towing.
 

CYBRSMTH

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I tend to agree with you - maybe not most, but certainly many of the first 50,000 vehicles will be flipped. (And also, I unfortunately have to agree with your last sentence as well).

Is it confirmed that the federal rebate will be at the point of sale? I thought that was still up in the air...

--Lex
The federal EV tax credit will turn into a point-of-sale rebate for new ($7,500 off) and used ($4,000 off) EVs starting in 2024. It was written into the IRA.

2024 is going to be a huge year for EVs, because most people who qualified for the tax credit could not amass a tax deficit large enough to get the whole $7,500 off. It was basically a total scam that just benefited the rich who can manipulate their incomes and make it look like they don’t make any money at all. This is how they dodge taxes as well.

It’s also why there’s a tax credit loophole for leased EVs made outside of the US. Rich people want what they want, and since they own the politicians, they get it.
 

CYBRSMTH

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Thank you. ?

The next question is, will buyers have to qualify for the credit or they jus get the full $7,500 off the top automatically; i.e. under the current system, if buyers don’tactually owe anything to the government, it actually makes no difference if they get an “EV Credit” or not. I wouldn’t put it past the government to make buyers send a bunch of shit to the IRS and have to wait weeks to be approved before transferring that credit to the seller.

—Lex
You’ll definitely have to qualify based on income and the vehicle caps are still going to be in place. That’s why there’s the leasing loophole. And knowing the government (I’m dealing with them currently with student loans.) it’ll take them 1-3 months to process the paperwork necessary for the point-of-sale rebate, but that’ll be on the dealers end.
 

TBONO

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The federal EV tax credit will turn into a point-of-sale rebate for new ($7,500 off) and used ($4,000 off) EVs starting in 2024. It was written into the IRA.

2024 is going to be a huge year for EVs, because most people who qualified for the tax credit could not amass a tax deficit large enough to get the whole $7,500 off. It was basically a total scam that just benefited the rich who can manipulate their incomes and make it look like they don’t make any money at all. This is how they dodge taxes as well.

It’s also why there’s a tax credit loophole for leased EVs made outside of the US. Rich people want what they want, and since they own the politicians, they get it.
So why the income caps to qualify for the tax credit? Did rich people put that in place, because they felt guilty from all the money they’re stealing from the poor?
 

PilotPete

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Us USA citizens have been told one thing and another has happened in the past, for sure. I was disappointed from the beginning that they didn’t just put it at the dealership level immediately and frankly, in my opinion, the price requirements for certain types of vehicles that “qualify” make zero sense. The Model X, for example, now qualifies for the credit because it’s below a ridiculous $80,000 threshold, while it companion, the S, does not, despite it being a more practical vehicle for many, because its priced “too high.”

Pickup trucks, being the most popular type of vehicle in North America, are deeply overpriced, which is why the cap almost has to be so high, but allowing “Sport Utility Vehicles” to be eligible up to an $80k price level seems a bit ridiculous to me. ?‍♂
It depends on the intent of the credit. There are a ton of trucks on the road. And if you want to get ICE trucks off the road and reduce the amount of gas we use, then raising the limit for trucks makes sense. Same holds true for SUVs, the modern station wagon. Those things are freakin everywhere. Every house has one, maybe two in the US. So if you want to ge them off the road, you raise the price limit for the credit and make the conversion to BEV more desirable for people.

Makes sense to me.
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