Keeping Expectation Grounded

[VR Driving]

While we all wish the Cybertruck will be 49k for a dual motor and 69k for a tri-motor. Lets keep our expectation realistic. Here is a list of things that I feel that could be the worst case scenario.

- $79k starting price for the Dual Motor Variant
- lower than expected range
- FSD won't be enabled at launch, will come at a later software update
- No GPU in MCU, so the basic 3/Y system. No steam
- It might not be 4680 battery, there is the chance of using 2170 according to some rumors to accelerate the production ramp.
- No 2nd screen for the rear
- Manual rear gate
- Manual Frunk

I do hope when the Cybertruck is fully revealed, none of these predictions will come true. But would you be disappointed if any of the above came true?

Sponsored

 

[kbolt]

While we all wish the Cybertruck will be 49k for a dual motor and 69k for a tri-motor. Lets keep our expectation realistic. Here is a list of things that I feel that could be the worst case scenario.

- $79k starting price for the Dual Motor Variant
- lower than expected range
- FSD won't be enabled at launch, will come at a later software update
- No GPU in MCU, so the basic 3/Y system. No steam
- It might not be 4680 battery, there is the chance of using 2170 according to some rumors to accelerate the production ramp.
- No 2nd screen for the rear
- Manual rear gate
- Manual Frunk

I do hope when the Cybertruck is fully revealed, none of these predictions will come true. But would you be disappointed if any of the above came true?

You forgot to mention the lack of floating and midgate would be disappointing to many. Also no 6th seat

 

[Sirfun]

It amazes me how people come up with massive increases in price, without even a thought of what happened when Rivian tried to do that, and got a massive backlash. Only to turn around and change their mind and tell customers they made a mistake and were going to honor the prices they had signed up for. Rivian's stock got hit for almost 40% in a week of trading. You gotta know that Elon, and Tesla were watching carefully. This is why he's been dropping hints, and it really wouldn't surprise me one bit, if they watch this forum to measure feelings.

I'm not saying they won't try to increase the prices in some way. But all this speculation is BS!!

 

[CyberGus]

There is zero chance that prices will be increased by 50%.

There is zero chance of using any battery other than 4680.

Range depends on the 4680 hitting their energy-density targets.

 

[VR Driving]

You forgot to mention the lack of floating and midgate would be disappointing to many. Also no 6th seat

Those are confirmed already, so it's not out of expectation.

 

[WHIZZARD OF OZ]

There is zero chance that prices will be increased by 50%.

There is zero chance of using any battery other than 4680.

Range depends on the 4680 hitting their energy-density targets.

CYBERCELL for the WIN

 

[Engi_Nerd]

Not sure why people get so aggressive with their pricing cope. There is essentially zero chance the dual motor comes in under $70K as Tesla is not going to leave a giant chunk of Fed rebate money on the table just to please fanbois. They can afford to lose more than half their reservations and still be supply constrained for years to come. 100 kwh pack + air suspension + 4WS is going to be big money, regardless of lack of paint.

We should hope for the 2170 battery as it's currently a superior cell.

I expect the tail gate will be manual but the frunk will be powered.

All "luxury" features from Model X and S will be absent to reduce costs due to CT being expensive and hard to build. No GPU, no driver display, no rear display, no active sound cancelling, etc.

Range with Tesla is always a bit of a joke. They can say whatever number they want, but it will likely only get similar or slightly better range to the Model Y LR on the highway, ~ 260 in summer and far less in winter.

I am personally just hopeful they include the HEPA filtration, which is one of my favorite features on our Model Ys.

 

[Engi_Nerd]

Let's say you're right and Tesla sells them for $50-60K. Most of the first 50K vehicles would be flipped for huge profits due to pent up demand. Tesla is not going to happily pass this value on to the consumer. Rivian was forced to do this because they are a start up and couldn't weather the backlash without running the risk of folding. Tesla has no such worry, and the fed rebate soon being point of sale makes it even easier for them.

In case you haven't noticed, their pricing is volatile, and is directly related to their supply volumes. I nearly bought a Model Y LR for $68K during the pandemic. That same vehicle is now ~$52K, less than a year later. These types of swings are going to be the norm for Tesla, as new hyped models come online and older ones see falling demand.

Or I guess you could just keep going with, "Nuh-uh, because Elon said". His credibility is gold these days.

 

[wtibbit]

I once considered writing a self-help book that would have been based on packing a one sentence idea into about 250 pages: "The easiest way to avoid disappointment is to set really low expectations." I couldn't get serious about it; the thought of people following that advice was just too depressing.

Perhaps VR Driving read the book I didn't write...

 

[Startreknerd]

While we all wish the Cybertruck will be 49k for a dual motor and 69k for a tri-motor. Lets keep our expectation realistic. Here is a list of things that I feel that could be the worst case scenario.

- $79k starting price for the Dual Motor Variant
- lower than expected range
- FSD won't be enabled at launch, will come at a later software update
- No GPU in MCU, so the basic 3/Y system. No steam
- It might not be 4680 battery, there is the chance of using 2170 according to some rumors to accelerate the production ramp.
- No 2nd screen for the rear
- Manual rear gate
- Manual Frunk

I do hope when the Cybertruck is fully revealed, none of these predictions will come true. But would you be disappointed if any of the above came true?

I doubt these worst case scenarios, if true I would just get a Rivian.

 

[CyberGus]

"The easiest way to avoid disappointment is to set really low expectations."

 

[SlegMD]

I wish there was a thumbs down option for some of these posts!

Sponsored