Lets talk 4680

CyberT

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I can't find the article but I remember reading/hearing that the Kato facility would be supplying the initial 4680s to Berlin and Austin until they can ramp up locally.

Ramping the Model Y / CT lines will take a quarter or two and during that low production Kato should be able to handle the production
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Diehard

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This is from The Limiting Factor dude on YouTube.

This is his projection of where 4680’s coming from California go. If they end up in real customer vehicles in limited numbers at these timelines, that is still a very good sign even if mass production of CT is delayed due to Austin cell Production issues. This way those of us way back in the line with huge binoculars can watch and see if the few lucky pioneer CT owners blow up ;)

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we still need the steel factory to complete building and come online and casting machine to start pumping out half CTs. So many balls in the air. I have never payed attention to any car being built this early in process. I think Tesla is using the IKEA effect with that $100 deposit. Once you are invested (mentally and emotionally), the truck will have additional value for you comparing to one that just showed up on a dealer lot. I thought my wife was the only one good at manipulating me. Tesla got my number too.
 
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Crissa

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Unfortunately, I am not as bullish on the availability of the 4680 compared to a year ago. Three months ago Tesla said they are 12-18 months away from volume production of the 4680. So, best case scenario is April 2022, worst case is July 2022. This may also be overly optimistic on Tesla’s part considering that this was mentioned during a Tesla earnings call to investors.
This is the same timeline as from battery day and fits the same timeline as from when the Cybertruck was announced. The dates have not shifted.

Full production of both would ramp up at the same time. It the batteries were earlier, they'd have no trucks to put them in, if the trucks were earlier they'd have no batteries. But factories don't 'pop' into full production: They ramp up. They make a hundredth, a tenth, then a third, a half, and then almost but almost never quite full.

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happy intruder

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Yeah, I agree. I don’t expect a 2170 Cybertruck. If the 4680 isn’t ready then production will simply be delayed.

It obviously doesn’t make sense for Tesla to manufacture a 2170 Model Y at Berlin/Austin for 3-6 months then switch over to the 4680. If 2170 Model Ys roll of these assembly lines then that would be bad news for mass production of the 4680. It will be interesting to see what these factories start with.

I don’t think the cast front section for the Model Y guarantees 4680 production either. I’m sure the cast front section could be used in 2170 Model Ys too.
I am sure people with orders in for the MY which is made in Texas will be really pissed it they get 2170's vx 4680's....so I dont think any MY will be produced in Texas with 2170's
 
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