Make Cyber Truck orders non-refundable

[happy intruder]

Tesla’s earnings last quarter were $2.3 billion.

I guess 5% of 1 quarter’s earnings? The numbers get less relevant over time. I suppose that’s appropriate.

For perspective, Tesla has $50+ billion worth of Cybertruck reservations sitting in their hopper.

that boils down to ~ 41,666 per reservation (1.2M).......not hardly what they will sell for....so I guess we can double the $50B to 100B possibly

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[Ogre]

that boils down to ~ 41,666 per reservation (1.2M).......not hardly what they will sell for....so I guess we can double the $50B to 100B possibly

I was trying to be conservative. I think $100b is a stretch. Average price for reservations is $57,500. If you buy into the 1.2 million reservations that’s about $69b in reservations which Tesla has taken. The average purchase price is likely to be higher than reservation price (near certain). But to counter that there will be some drop offs, particularly if the price increase is higher.

But… it’s kind of irrelevant because there is almost certain to be demand beyond the preorders.

 

[cvalue13]

Truth is, we don’t know the price of many (any?) vehicles for which the MSRP caps will apply … in 2024 (and beyond). But I’d bet the vehicle prices aren’t going down.

As this legislation was unable to include an inflation-adjustment for the MSRP cap, it’s unknown if or when the MSRP cap amounts will get adjusted upwards.

 

[Ogre]

Truth is, we don’t know the price of many (any?) vehicles for which the MSRP caps will apply … in 2024 (and beyond). But I’d bet the vehicle prices aren’t going down.

Keep in mind, between the first of this year, and the end of 2023, Tesla is nearly tripling vehicle output in the US. Stack up enough doubles and triples and it won’t take too long to run out of buyers who can afford $65k vehicles.

 

[cvalue13]

it won’t take too long to run out of buyers who can afford $65k vehicles.

least of all the ones below the income caps (also not inflation-adjusted)

 

[Ogre]

I suspect most Cybertruck orders will come from people below the $150k/ 300k limit. Typical pickup truck buyer earns about half that much. I’m sure the Tesla badge will skew things up market, but over the long run, it’s unlikely to be that much higher.

 

[Rutrow]

... but refundable deposits are held in an account Tesla can't use so it's not a loan. However, if they were non-refundable, you'd be right. Of course, from my point of view, I don't have that $100 that I gave them oh so long ago so it SEEMS like I gave them a loan.

Held in an INTEREST bearing account. Now, if you merely compare that amount of money to Tesla's balance sheet it will look insignificant, but Tesla's accountants will tell you that every dollar is counts.

If YOU had that much money in an account you weren't allowed to touch, you'd still be able to retire on the "insignificant" interest.

 

[Crissa]

Before I realized how big a hit the bikes on the back were, I seriously considered setting up my Model Y for off roading. I’d take the likely ~10% hit to range. But the 10% for off road plus 25% for the bikes would be horrible.

...All the more to want a Y with adjustable suspension from the factory, eh?

-Crissa

 

[Crissa]

The interesting thing is that the income limit is the same everywhere. $150K is a lot of money in some places in Alabama but not so much in NYC, Mountain View or even Miami.

So when someone says, I earn $150K and lots of people react with an almost inverted snobbery, I wonder how many of them are in places like Alabama. No offense to Alabamians.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that the income limits should be higher but I do feel like there are some odd sentiments expressed whenever this topic comes up.

https://dqydj.com/income-percentile-calculator/

-Crissa

 

[Ogre]

...All the more to want a Y with adjustable suspension from the factory, eh?

-Crissa

I have this crazy idea that Tesla is going to keep sneaking upgrades onto the Model Y LR so they never have to lower the price on the LR. They just added door fur and wood trim pieces for example.

Eventually demand will start to fade and rather than drop the price of the LR, they add more features and spawn a second model underneath it without the nice things.

So you’d have a semi-lux version with wood trim, even more range, air suspension, and the infotainment system from the Model S. The non LR would sell for $10,000 less or so, have less range and won’t have the air suspension or other bad-assery.

Don’t know… but if they did a version with adjustable air suspension and off road tires with 350 miles range…. Damn.

 

[Ogre]

https://dqydj.com/income-percentile-calculator/

-Crissa

Hmmm.

Pluggin some numbers into that site got me thinking about something else and I wound up at this site.

https://www.calculateme.com/car-loan/80000

Which suggests:

Don't spend more than 10% of your income on payments and insurance. Rough estimate: your annual income should be at least 2.5 times the purchase price. So to afford a car that costs $80,000, you would need to make at least $200,000 per year.

Going back to your site… Which suggests that 4% of the population can afford an $80,000 truck. That’s a grand total of 12 million people in the US who can afford an $80k truck. Pretty small total addressable market. For a $100k vehicle, it goes down to 9 million.

Edit: Oops… that would include children below driving age and others who cannot drive for various reasons so adjust downward appropriately.

 

[cvalue13]

Which suggests that 4% of the population can afford an $80,000 truck. That’s a grand total of 12 million people in the US who can afford an $80k truck. Pretty small total addressable market. For a $100k vehicle, it goes down to 9 million.

site is leaving out the millions of Americans that save for years to pay cash for their $80K truck, wisely avoiding both financing interest as well as the “10% of income” rule

 

[Crissa]

Going back to your site… Which suggests that 4% of the population can afford an $80,000 truck. That’s a grand total of 12 million people in the US who can afford an $80k truck. Pretty small total addressable market. For a $100k vehicle, it goes down to 9 million.

Edit: Oops… that would include children below driving age and others who cannot drive for various reasons so adjust downward appropriately.

Of course, as pointed out, anyone who lives somewhere where the cost of living is higher is definitely going to have downward pressure on what they can afford.

-Crissa

 

[Crissa]

site is leaving out the millions of Americans that save for years to pay cash for their $80K truck, wisely avoiding both financing interest as well as the “10% of income” rule

The median net worth minus home ownership is about $6K.

So uhh, yeah.

-Crissa

 

[cvalue13]

The median net worth minus home ownership is about $6K.

So uhh, yeah.

-Crissa

somebody’s gonna need to explain wake/ski boats …

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