More Tesla price cuts === cheaper Cybertruck (6 oct)

[Ogre]

Tesla reports a couple of million reservations, gross

‘Tesla does not report line length at all. People make guesses about it based on guesswork which has almost certainly gotten less and less accurate over time. “More than half a million” is about the only thing we can say with certainty. A million is a strong possibility. But for all the reasons you’ve suggested it’s really hard to say.


But I think you missed the most important thing here or touched on it with little emphasis here. The overwhelming majority reserved a truck based on the value proposition announced at launch day. Interest rate increases alone are going to increase payments by 30-50%. There have been huge layoffs in the time between launch and now.

If there is a huge price increase, it massively increases the chances I will flip my reservation. Exactly the opposite of what some have asserted.

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[cvalue13]

Defensive much?
You got that shut down with your continual Shitposting.
What you afraid of?
If you’re not here for a discussion why are you here?

you wouldn’t know what I’m here for, because after I called you out for FABRICATING ChatGPT “support” for your ideas (ha!) in that thread, you blocked me

I *am* here for discussion - it’s you who takes any disagreement with your half-cocked ideas as being “not here for discussion”

your ideas don’t and won’t work. Nobody is interested in them, least of all Tesla.

let

it

go

 

[Deleted member 3316]

Most of us HATE your idea because the idea of selling trucks to people who have no passion for this vehicle before us pisses us off. We’ve all made this very clear.

What you’ve made clear in this post again, is your
horror that scalping exists has blinded you from;

the one mitigation strategy

that will keep your price low

and

queue jumpers price prohibitively high

with that profit going to Tesla, not parasites…

If you’ve not got multiple reservations to sell why not correct me the first time I questioned you?

Take a deep breath and look at the whole thing and stop focusing on the thing I assert you’re pretending to be horrified by.

 

[cvalue13]

But I think you missed the most important thing here or touched on it with little emphasis here. The overwhelming majority reserved a truck based on the value proposition announced at launch day. Interest rate increases alone are going to increase payments by 30-50%. There have been huge layoffs in the time between launch and now.

didn’t intend to under-emphasize that point

further subtract those unable to buy the top trim, which is statistically a huge portion of the reservation base

could have added “same goes, moreso, for lower trims”

If there is a huge price increase, it massively increases the chances I will flip my reservation. Exactly the opposite of what some have asserted.

take it from a guy who bought a Lightning at original release MSRP, <3% APR, full federal/state rebates, when trade-in values were still bubbled - I get it!

The converse of all these things being true today are central reasons Lightning’s are today sitting on lots at (new) MSRP, exemplifying the dynamics CT sales would undergo if Tesla pulls the wrong levers … or pulls too hard

 

[Ogre]

What you’ve made clear in this post again, is your
horror that scalping exists has blinded you from;

I AM NOT WORRIED ABOUT SCALPERS.

The effect they will have will be trivial.

that will keep your price low

I AM NOT WORRIED ABOUT PRICE CHANGES.

All of the BS about price increases is just FEAR mongering.

queue jumpers price prohibitively high

Anyone “Jumping the queue” is buying a reservation or truck from someone with a reservation. My place is assured unless Tesla listens to your craziness (I’m not worried about that either).

If you’ve not got multiple reservations to sell why not correct me the first time I questioned you?

Why is this even relevant?

 

[Kahpernicus]

I think they're trying to find someone with multiple reservations so they can jump the list.


she doth protest too much, me thinks

 

[Ogre]

didn’t intend to under-emphasize that point



could have added “same goes, moreso, for lower trims”



take it from a guy who bought a Lightning at original release MSRP, <3% APR, full federal/state rebates, when trade-in values were still bubbled - I get it!

The converse of all these things being true today are central reasons Lightning’s are today sitting on lots at (new) MSRP, exemplifying the dynamics CT sales would undergo if Tesla pulls the wrong levers … or pulls too hard

Wasn’t meaning to argue with you. Your post was good.

Just feel like that point deserves a little more emphasis.

 

[cvalue13]

Wasn’t meaning to argue with you. Your post was good.

Just feel like that point deserves a little more emphasis.

same same

 

[Ogre]

My prediction here. If Tesla increases prices by 20% or more, the market will be so flooded with reservations for sale there will be little to no premium.

 

[Deleted member 3316]

I AM NOT WORRIED ABOUT PRICE CHANGES.

All of the BS about price increases is just FEAR mongering.

My prediction here. If Tesla increases prices by 20% or more, the market will be so flooded with reservations for sale there will be little to no premium.

. .
These two statements are incongruous.

Anyone “Jumping the queue” is buying a reservation or truck from someone with a reservation. My place is assured unless Tesla listens to your craziness

You are using ad Hominem to prosecute a dishonest argument… Even with your unhelpful way of interacting I am trying to be helpful to you to get you your truck cheaper and earlier.
Why are you in opposition to this? Because you’re being honest and you don’t understand it or you understand it perfectly which is why your so defensive using logical fallacy to distract and dissuade..

The more people that get out of the queue the quicker you get your truck.
Why are you ok with the enabling of queue jumping in the current scenario but not in another?
Is it because you cannot profit off another scenario? Just be honest in this rather than dancing around it.

Why is this even relevant?

Because it defines the context of your opposition. Do you only have one reservation like @CyberGus ? Because it appears you have a few. One to own because you see the value in it and a few to profit off.

 

[Ogre]

These two statements are incongruous.

. .

One says what I believe most likely. The other says what I believe will happen if that unlikely thing happens. What is “Incongruous“ about that?

Why are you in opposition to this? Because you’re being honest and you don’t understand it or you understand it perfectly which is why your so defensive using logical fallacy to distract and dissuade..

I don’t think the problems you keep saying we’ll have will be as bad as you suggest.

You have never once put any kind of rational analysis into this conversation. Like answering with any kind of reasonable numbers how big the scalping issue would be or what basis there is to be concerned over it.

Just be honest in this rather than dancing around it.

Why are you ok with the enabling of queue jumping in the current scenario but not in another?
Is it because you cannot profit off another scenario?

Why do you think it’s reasonable to post a pile of demanding questions when you won’t even answer basic ones asked of you about this idea you keep spamming the forums with?

Just be honest in this rather than dancing around it.

Because it defines the context of your opposition. Do you only have one reservation like @CyberGus ? Because it appears you have a few. One to own because you see the value in it and a few to profit off.

You want to define my “opposition”?

Read before you reply. Answered this before. Many times.

 

[Deleted member 3316]

We are now getting somewhere.

I don’t think the problems you keep saying we’ll have will be as bad as you suggest.

I think when you say problems you mean scalping. I have no issue with scalping as a concept but Tesla mitigate that by using a market clearing pricing strategy.

You have never once put any kind of rational analysis into this conversation. Like answering with any kind of reasonable numbers how big the scalping issue would be or what basis there is to be concerned over it

This highlights you do not understand the problem. If Tesla lower their prices too far below the market clearance rate an undefined proportion of that production volume will be scalped. Supply and demand are meditated by price and production volum

Why do you think it’s reasonable to post a pile of demanding questions when you won’t even answer basic ones asked of you about this idea you keep spamming the forums with?

I ask questions to clarify your understanding, I answer every genuine question which is routinely ignored and then brought up again as a new question.

If the forum is about pricing or the market restriction the reservation list, this is an appropriate topic.

I WANT MY F**%&ING TRUCK

That’s quite clear but it doesn’t clarify whether you want to scalp your other reservations? That would clarify your opposition. Misunderstanding or Malice.

When your rage haze subsides, consider your priorities and contemplate

Why are you ok with the enabling of queue jumping in the current scenario but not in another?

You could get it sooner and cheaper.

I am on your side Ogre but your denial of reality is preventing you from seeing that.

 

[Ogre]

I answer every genuine question which is routinely ignored and then brought up again as a new question.

So.


What percentage of trucks will be scalped?

What basis?

How many trucks do you suggest should be inserted in the queue in front of me?

How many scalpers will that eliminate? How?

No bullshit, no dancing around it. You’ve been asked these things many times and have never once answered. You’ve waved it off with random wishy-washy “The numbers don’t matter” quips. But if I am #1500 in the queue (I am not but some on this forum are) then how do those people not get bumped backwards?

No more dancing around. No bullshit, this is your chance to redeem yourself here. Your opportunity to educate and free us all of the miasma of confusion which we all seem to be in.

 

[Deleted member 3316]

I think they're trying to find someone with multiple reservations so they can jump the list.


she doth protest too much, me thinks

I have found some and asked them to find ways to get around my proposal, they could not and most insulted and derided me. @earthman was the only person that has multiple reservations and interacted honestly.

To be clear,
I have one reservation.
I would like prices to resemble those at reveal.
Elon has stated prices will be higher.
Teslas current strategy (in an open market) is market clearing, as high price as the market will accept to keep just ahead of supply constraints.
Cybertruck is a closed market that is additionally supply constrained for at least two years,

The current mechanism and demand ensures sales outside that closed market.(which Tesla does not retain a portion of profit from)

Using their current strategy,

How high will Tesla price Cybertruck to not incentivise arbitrage in the first few years of production?

Which are Tesla going to prioritise profit loss or PR damage?

 

[Ogre]

Forgive me for asking, but is there a “new math” version of economic theory which lacks math?

Its been a few years since I took economics, but when I went through school the theories had formulas.

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