Number of Cybertrucks manufactured per year

Frank Mendez

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Any guesses at the rate of production through ramp to full production on the number of Cybertrucks per year?
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TyPope

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250,000 projected annual production. That rate will be reached August 2023 when Tesla announces they produced 5,000 for the week of 6-12 August.

One more guess - they'll produce 1,000 each week of May, 2023.

Last prediction - It'll seem random but they will carefully fill orders in a spread fashion to ensure Cybertrucks are seen all across the country (as opposed to starting with sales in Texas, for instance). Further, they'll build the quad motor variety first so they can ensure Tesla is once again the biggest, baddest, mofo in a car market.

Just wait till the roadster takes it's spotlight!
 

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I predict 70k units produced in 2023, increasing to 350k units in 2024 and 500k units in 2025. Tesla will open a second CT factory in Q3 2025. Production will top 1M units in 2026 and the CT will be declared the best truck of all time. The resounding success will spawn a host of copycats, and Tesla will introduce a Cybercar in Q4 2026.
 

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I predict 70k units produced in 2023, increasing to 350k units in 2024 and 500k units in 2025. Tesla will open a second CT factory in Q3 2025. Production will top 1M units in 2026 and the CT will be declared the best truck of all time. The resounding success will spawn a host of copycats, and Tesla will introduce a Cybercar in Q4 2026.
Some may think it's fantasy land, but Tesla has '1.5 million+ outstanding orders.

End of 2026 according to Elon, we will catch up (sort of). What about new orders accumulated from now till end of 2026 ? Another 1,5 million. ?

Some will cancel their orders, maybe 1.5 million is high. But that is moot. It is still a big number. The issue of forever being behind remains.

Elon is coy. He has, imo, already planned to maximise growth of production volume in line with battery and chip availability.

Constraints will be overcome.. Money is the driving force. With 80 Billion on the table right now, PLUS Billions of dollars of new orders between now and 2026 added to that amount. Yea... I expect production to be 500,000 to 1 million. 24/25 sounds about right.
 

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Some may think it's fantasy land, but Tesla has '1.5 million+ outstanding orders.

End of 2026 according to Elon, we will catch up (sort of). What about new orders accumulated from now till end of 2026 ? Another 1,5 million. ?

Some will cancel their orders, maybe 1.5 million is high. But that is moot. It is still a big number. The issue of forever being behind remains.

Elon is coy. He has, imo, already planned to maximise growth of production volume in line with battery and chip availability.

Constraints will be overcome.. Money is the driving force. With 80 Billion on the table right now, PLUS Billions of dollars of new orders between now and 2026 added to that amount. Yea... I expect production to be 500,000 to 1 million. 24/25 sounds about right.
Life is full of variables. It is impossible for us internet sleuths to give an accurate estimate how many CT's will be ordered/reserved between now and the end of 2026.

How are these variables. The price of gas, the price of Cybertruck variants, length of wait times, possibility of renting out your Cybertruck as a robotaxi, Government regulations, and incentives, WORLD WIDE!!!

My first inclination is to say that 1.5 million is a low number. First off, the end of 2026 is 3 1/2 years away. The reveal night of Nov. 21, 2019 was only 2 1/2 years ago. As I said though, too many variables.

Edit: As HaulingAss appropriately pointed out. "The end of 2026 is 4 1/2 years from now".
 
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intimidator

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Any guesses at the rate of production through ramp to full production on the number of Cybertrucks per year?
At one point Elon said 150,000 CTs per year initially.

Where the industry is with the lack of 4680 batteries, the ramp in 2023 of the Cybertruck I suspect will be slow. Less than 20,000 in the fall of 2023? And then maybe 150,000 delivered in 2024.
 

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Life is full of variables. It is impossible for us internet sleuths to give an accurate estimate how many CT's will be ordered/reserved between now and the end of 2026.

How are these variables. The price of gas, the price of Cybertruck variants, length of wait times, possibility of renting out your Cybertruck as a robotaxi, Government regulations, and incentives, WORLD WIDE!!!

My first inclination is to say that 1.5 million is a low number. First off, the end of 2026 is 3 1/2 years away. The reveal night of Nov. 21, 2019 was only 2 1/2 years ago. As I said though, too many variables.
Yea, hard to know exactly. Even with variables, It's a lot of trucks.

Orders are blocked in some parts, so there is a limiting factor. Whenever this is overcome, given the enormity of income potential, I think reasonable to expect a run rate of 500-1 million per year.
 

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After I posted, I jumped on and watched Tesla Daily.

Telsla has submitted plans to expand Austin

This could be the area South of the building ? (where they are currently staging new cars)

For CT ?

 

Crissa

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Round can LFP EvBattery.
There's no evidence of anyone working on a LFP 4680 at this point.

Until this year, non-Chinese LFP development was at a standstill.

And we don't know what the limits of Austin production currently are; 100/day may be 35000 a year, but that assumes absolutely no ramp.

-Crissa
 

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Assuming that Tesla solves the 4680 ramp before then the limiting factor on CT production will be the die casting machine rate. I think that Tesla and IDRA at one time thought they could produce 1,000 castings per day per machine but I do not know if they have ever achieved that. Since there is no painting being done the assembly an be very fast. At 2 castings per machine that is a maximum of 500/day or on the order of 175,000 per year per casting machine. That is at full ramp. How long it takes to reach full ramp will depend on how quickly they can ramp the die casting rate.
 


HaulingAss

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My first inclination is to say that 1.5 million is a low number. First off, the end of 2026 is 3 1/2 years away. The reveal night of Nov. 21, 2019 was only 2 1/2 years ago. As I said though, too many variables.
The end of 2026 is 4 1/2 years from now.
 

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After I posted, I jumped on and watched Tesla Daily.

Telsla has submitted plans to expand Austin

This could be the area South of the building ? (where they are currently staging new cars)

For CT ?

I'm guessing its a parking garage for short term storage of newly produced vehicles prior to shipping. They gonna need a lot more parking space than they currently have for all these new vehicles coming out of that factory in the next few years.
 

Crissa

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I'm guessing its a parking garage for short term storage of newly produced vehicles prior to shipping. They gonna need a lot more parking space than they currently have for all these new vehicles coming out of that factory in the next few years.
Man, I wish.

Reducing the amount of tarmac around the factory will reduce the cooling required for their machines. And cleaning required for their cars.

-Crissa
 

charliemagpie

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I'm guessing its a parking garage for short term storage of newly produced vehicles prior to shipping. They gonna need a lot more parking space than they currently have for all these new vehicles coming out of that factory in the next few years.
I believe Boring Co. wants a tunnel, likely from factory to Airport and / or to house precinct for staff commute.

I always felt there is opportunity to use tunnels to take new cars out of the factory, maybe to port and other distribution points. The same can be said for bringing in raw materials etc.

Maybe in/out will be inside the factory, we will never see these coming and going.

At a total guess, tunnelling will cost 2 million $ per mile... 100 miles is 200 million. Wouldn't need distribution points to sit on prime land, basically making the tunnels pay for themselves.
 
 




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