Cybertruck Breaks Down in Mojave + F-150 Raptor Size Comparison + ~350mile Range Prediction?

[Baldey]

Where would I order one as a fleet owner?

pretty sure that's the first im hearing of it, but i think what Rthardison is saying is that Tesla will prioritize large orders first.

As far as i know, that is baseless speculation. But not much else here, at this time.. I dont think that will be the case, over 2 million reservation holders since 2019. Being one myself i would say you gotta wait in line, but Tesla has skipped the lines before. So again, no one knows! Wait for nov 30th. Just 1 more month..

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[cvalue13]

You don't like the light. Now you're hissing like a vampire in the sun.

something about rubber and glue

 

[lowtek]

pretty sure that's the first im hearing of it, but i think what Rthardison is saying is that Tesla will prioritize large orders first.

As far as i know, that is baseless speculation. But not much else here, at this time.. I dont think that will be the case, over 2 million reservation holders since 2019. Being one myself i would say you gotta wait in line, but Tesla has skipped the lines before. So again, no one knows! Wait for nov 30th. Just 1 more month..

Just sayin' that GM doesn't have a 500 mile truck anybody can buy ... I read @Rthardison's post as he could buy a GM if Tesla doesn't release a 500 mile Cybertruck trim ...

 

[cvalue13]

pretty sure that's the first im hearing of it, but i think what Rthardison is saying is that Tesla will prioritize large orders first.

no

the WT is a fleet only vehicle

to answer the prior question, I don’t think the WT is open yet to just any ‘fleet’ buyer at present, but instead has been sold only to strategic fleet partner(s)

Similar to how the only fleet sales of Tesla Semi have been to Pepsi

 

[Baldey]

The good news is that Tesla could make a Cybertruck with 1,000 miles of range.
The bad news is that it would have a towing capacity of 200lbs.

I donno, 1000 horse power could WORK a lot of miracles! see what i did there? eh? eh?
But seriously, it might reduce the load capacity, but it would make the tow capacity go up. The battery is probably the biggest most ridged structural member, so a bigger one would just mean a stronger frame..

Wait, isn't that just the semi?

 

[WenssCT88]

“As good or better than the Model X.”

Our X LR+ is rated for 371 miles range. When towing our large non-aerodynamic boat at 70mph it can not make it 100 miles. Usually anvergaes about 1.2kWh/mile consumption. Going 55mph consumption drops to about 0.85kWh/mile but on the busy interstate going that slow really isn’t ideal.

I’m hopeful that a CT with a rated range of 350 miles would outperform this. Bigger/heavier vehicle, bigger pack etc.

I’m even more hopeful they find a way to make a 500 mile variant. I don’t care if it’s $20-30k more. Those who truly need it will be willing to pay for it.

 

[greggertruck]

@TheLastStarfighter is my source. he and I have a brilliant bit running, where *he's* my source, but to obscure that fact, he makes a bunch of demands for people to cite their sources

i'll admit, though, there's a gap in his performance in that I've never seen him banging the table at @greggertruck

Ya I have no idea why people trust me. ?

 

[wtibbit]

..... the fact that if you add performance, you must also add capacity.. Take a basic physics class..

I've taken a few physics classes, including basic ones, and I've never seen this equivalence:

Performance = f(Capacity) ​

But, education is a lifelong process. Maybe you could give us a textbook reference...

 

[Baldey]

I've taken a few physics classes, including basic ones, and I've never seen this equivalence:

Performance = f(Capacity) ​

But, education is a lifelong process. Maybe you could give us a textbook reference...

jeez, ive already apologized for this! but i deserve the mud, i guess.

All i was saying is if you've carefully balanced a system (im most familiar with DIY drones and EUC PEVs, not trucks.. but similar) , you can't just slap a bigger motor on it. The motor will ask for more power, and the battery will struggle to give it. Voltage sag results in reduced power, sometimes catastrophically when already moving at high speeds.. But I guess cutouts aren't as bad when you have four wheels on the ground!

 

[cybguy]

Seems clear there will not be 500 at this point.

The duel will have 300 miles as advertised.

The 'long range' 500+ miles Tri we saw on reveal day will hopefully be available when the 4680's allow.

It is replaced by the 'Performance' Tri.. which may be more than 300, but not 500.

imo

While the batteries were always why the Cybertruck was going to be delayed a couple years (I've posted this for 3+ years on this site), I bet there will be a trimotor with 500 miles plus range delivered on Nov. 30th. Musk doesn't want the Cybertruck under delivering on capabilities. Too big a blow to his ego for him to accept a watered down trimotor. What will likely happen is the dual motor Cybertruck with 300+ miles of range (it's the model with the most reservations) will make up the vast majority of deliveries to begin sales. I wouldn't be surprised if 80+% of deliveries for the first year or more are dual motor variants. Selling the models produced won't be a problem for a long time.
Anyways, that's my take. I'll bet anyone a $100 we get a 500 mile trimotor Cybertruck delivered on the first day of deliveries.

 

[cvalue13]

I'll bet anyone a $100 we get a 500 mile trimotor Cybertruck delivered on the first day of deliveries.

I’ll make it $1,000 that it’s not 500mi (or that it even starts with a ‘4’), on first insider delivery day, or in the retail sales configurator**

We can choose a member to be escrow agent. We both put in $1,000 to them, then on Nov. 30 they release the $2,000 to the ‘winner.’






**you shouldn’t bet this, but if you insist

 

[Arctic_White]

There is a chance that your theory is right (it definitely makes logical sense)!

But remember why the Cybertruck was delayed: it was delayed purely because of battery constraints. These constraints are still there but aren't as pronounced as they were earlier.

I'm simply going by what Tesla has historically done in the past. Can they buck the trend? Sure! But I'd be shocked.

Maybe they will play the 420-mile game with the $69,420 price meme (which they have done in the past).

 

[cvalue13]

it was delayed purely because of battery constraints. These constraints are still there but aren't as pronounced as they were earlier.

Not as pronounced, no - but consider the requirements

assuming ~1.200 4680 cells per pack:

to reach the “half capacity” CT vehicle run rate of 125K/yr sometime in 2024, requires a cell run rate of 150,000,000/yr

For a “full capacity” 250K/yr vehicle run rate in 2025, requires a cell run rate of 300M/yr

That’s assuming not a single cell goes into Semi or Model Y (or assuming all those will come from Nevada/Fremont)

Between June and October, the single 4680 line at GFTX built a total of 10M cells - or equiv of a 30M/yr run rate. They need to 5X that rate by sometime in 2024 to meet 2024 capacity goal.

So, no doubt Tesla is ramping cell production quickly (on the call they outlined 4 lines in 2024, and 4 more in 2025). But looking at the above number of cells needed for even just 125k or 250k vehicle run rate, they need every bit of that ramping.

(which is all before the separate matter of needing to ramp the CT’s performance motor)

 

[cvalue13]

have you seen the CyberTruck ‘HD’?

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