Poll: How many preorders will turn into orders?

How many preorders will turn into orders?


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  • Poll closed .

Sirfun

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SO sad. Tragically, MuleFerguson won't get to fulfill his earthly dream of Cybertruck. See what the delays are doing, Elon? Dead people can't drive their Cybertrucks! Not cool.
Yes
SO sad. Tragically, MuleFerguson won't get to fulfill his earthly dream of Cybertruck. See what the delays are doing, Elon? Dead people can't drive their Cybertrucks! Not cool.
Mule Ferguson was a really cool guy on this forum. I'm blown away that he had joined Jan. 26 2020, and in just over a month he had posted 37 threads with 263 posts. His posts were funny, interesting and informative. He was a Tesla Model X owner, and he was also a musician. Here's one of his YouTube videos.
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PointHope

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I vote 75-100%.
The CT will very likely turn out better than expected.
Much hinges on the performance of the new battery technology.
If Tesla gets it right and actual performance exceeds the promises, demand for this revolutionary truck will be off the chart.
Then there is the FSD component which is also going to turn the entire industry on it's pointy little head.
VW is already very worried, and rightly so.
The legacy manufacturers won't know what hit them.
Ford will likely go out of business. GM/Toyota/Isuzu will flounder as they try to catch up.
VW will be very interesting to watch.
Personally I really like Citroen and their cute cuddly Ami ev. (not competition for Tesla)
Sure many will be impatient to wait for a late 2023-24 delivery, but many like me will be patient.
 

Red61224

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If there are zombies in the street, that’s the worst possible time to sell the truck!
Edit: Insert clueless consumers instead of zombies. Most folks I talk to on the street say "oh, ya, I hear Ford is coming out with an electric pick-up truck" they get fed a constant mush of commercials on the tube so really it's out of their field of vision and are clueless, they are trained to only walk on the sidewalk and not to venture into "unfamiliar territory" when shopping for consumer goods. When the Cybertrucks start rolling down the street I think they will perk up and pay attention and the gold rush is on.
 
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Ogre

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I think the cancellation fears are over-blown. Most folks who pre-order something knowing it’s 2+ years out don’t have a sense of urgency. There might be some folks who didn’t realize it was that long or who just want/ need to get a new truck in the mean time, but there are plenty of people still ordering trucks today to fill in the ranks.

My concern is there will be a lot of early RNs that get flipped and sold off resale for a profit so folks who have waited 3-4 years for their trucks are stuck waiting while someone with a big fist of cash cuts in line.
 

ajdelange

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SO sad. Tragically, MuleFerguson won't get to fulfill his earthly dream of Cybertruck. See what the delays are doing, Elon? Dead people can't drive their Cybertrucks! Not cool.
That's the thing that concerns me. I ain't no spring chicken and the rate at which delivery is being pushed out seems to be about 1 month per month.

As for those of us still standing when they finally do roll out we have folks that have reserved one for himself, one for his wife, one for his mother in law and one for his brother. I have seen those who have posted that they have reserved a dozen for their robo-taxi service. There are those who have reserved them because you can get a kWh of battery cheaper in a CT than in a Powerwall. There are those who have reserved one of each type because they are not sure which they will ultimately want or can afford. Obviously it's unlikely that the conversion rate will be high but how many such reservations can there be?
 
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cole hamer

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I think the cancellation fears are over-blown. Most folks who pre-order something knowing it’s 2+ years out don’t have a sense of urgency. There might be some folks who didn’t realize it was that long or who just want/ need to get a new truck in the mean time, but there are plenty of people still ordering trucks today to fill in the ranks.

My concern is there will be a lot of early RNs that get flipped and sold off resale for a profit so folks who have waited 3-4 years for their trucks are stuck waiting while someone with a big fist of cash cuts in line.

This has been a concern of mine as well. Not much can be done re: resale - its a free country.

was curious what other shenanigans about line hopping may show up.
 

Sirfun

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Edit: Insert clueless consumers instead of zombies. Most folks I talk to on the street say "oh, ya, I hear Ford is coming out with a pick-up truck" they don't get fed the constant mush of commercials on the tube so really it's out of their field of vision and are clueless, they are trained to only walk on the sidewalk and no to venture into "unfamiliar territory" when shopping for consumer goods. When the Cybertrucks start rolling down the street I think they will perk up and pay attention and the gold rush is on.
75% of people I mention the Cybertruck to have never heard of it. When this badass truck shows up there will be reactions. Some will love it, some will hate it. But it won't be ignored.
 
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Ogre

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75% of people I mention the Cybertruck to have never heard of it. When this badass truck starts shows up there will be reactions. Some will love it, some will hate it. But it won't be ignored.
I suspect there will be a huge wave of hype around it when it launches, then for some time after it will be considered exotic. Then once there are half a million or so on the road they will be so commonplace people won’t notice them any more than an F150. There will still be haters I’m sure, but they will be so normalized by 2024 they won’t draw looks.

I’m far more interested in what happens at that point than I am in pre-order take rate. Once the Cybertruck is common, will it continue to sell or will interest and popularity fade?

Once Ford, GM, and Stellantis get their trucks down to competitive prices (I think they will eventually??) will the Cybertruck still sell?
 

JBee

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I suspect there will be a huge wave of hype around it when it launches, then for some time after it will be considered exotic. Then once there are half a million or so on the road they will be so commonplace people won’t notice them any more than an F150. There will still be haters I’m sure, but they will be so normalized by 2024 they won’t draw looks.

I’m far more interested in what happens at that point than I am in pre-order take rate. Once the Cybertruck is common, will it continue to sell or will interest and popularity fade?

Once Ford, GM, and Stellantis get their trucks down to competitive prices (I think they will eventually??) will the Cybertruck still sell?
Yes until everyone has one. Stainless EV with million mile battery. A car for life. ;-)

At some point cradle to grave production and consumerism needs to stop and we need to adopt a more cyclic strategy for sustainable resource use. I plan on giving my grand kids my cybertrucks. In full running order.
 

Ogre

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Yes until everyone has one. Stainless EV with million mile battery. A car for life. ;-)

At some point cradle to grave production and consumerism needs to stop and we need to adopt a more cyclic strategy for sustainable resource use. I plan on giving my grand kids my cybertrucks. In full running order.
Interesting train of thought here.

The 3mm stainless should last essentially forever. It’s not quite dent proof but damned hard to damage. Electric motors last a long long time and its likely accidents and battery failures will provide a supply of affordable replacements. The problems will likely be things like door latches, seat upholstery, and computer failures.

Hopefully Tesla will allow us to continue updating the computer and OS for a long time. Nothing is worse than an expensive piece of hardware which is obsolete because the manufacturer dropped support. Or at the very least offer a “Sunset” option where you can take the truck offline so it is air-gapped from the internet.

Tesla has been IMO damned good about this last. It’s just a fear I have about any new complex electronics.
 

Sirfun

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Interesting train of thought here.

The 3mm stainless should last essentially forever. It’s not quite dent proof but damned hard to damage. Electric motors last a long long time and its likely accidents and battery failures will provide a supply of affordable replacements. The problems will likely be things like door latches, seat upholstery, and computer failures.

Hopefully Tesla will allow us to continue updating the computer and OS for a long time. Nothing is worse than an expensive piece of hardware which is obsolete because the manufacturer dropped support. Or at the very least offer a “Sunset” option where you can take the truck offline so it is air-gapped from the internet.

Tesla has been IMO damned good about this last. It’s just a fear I have about any new complex electronics.
I think wheel bearings, the suspension system, motorized Tonneau cover, and electronic system, all should be added to your list of possible problems.
 

Enigmacybertruck

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SO sad. Tragically, MuleFerguson won't get to fulfill his earthly dream of Cybertruck. See what the delays are doing, Elon? Dead people can't drive their Cybertrucks! Not cool.
This truck is my added goal to keep going! I have been reading posts of deaths before the truck arrived and unfortunately it hits home decades too soon for me. Anyway nuff of that thought process!

I’ve told all my kids it’s my wish so they had a cake made with a remote Cybertruck. They also found me the Matchbox. They thought it was silly when I made an iron-on on one of the boys hoodies.. Then they saw my Tesla stock (total mic drop moment;). Who’s the noob now? Now they follow the news and the two adult children bought in too.
I feel bad for the ones who pass before delivery. The weeee moment anticipation is worth the pending placement card either way.
 

madquadbiker

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I'm curious what you think. I'm guessing between 50 and 75% of preorders will turn into orders; how about you?
Could be a lot more if you include those countries that may not be allowed to have them, we may be forced to cancel as there wouldn’t be any point in holding a reservation for the CT , obviously hope not but the earlier we have the final final finished product specifications locked in and released the better.
 

Sirfun

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I’m far more interested in what happens at that point than I am in pre-order take rate. Once the Cybertruck is common, will it continue to sell or will interest and popularity fade?

Once Ford, GM, and Stellantis get their trucks down to competitive prices (I think they will eventually??) will the Cybertruck still sell?
At age 65 I've seen a common theme on economics of everything. Once somebody comes up with something that makes money and grabs attention, Others notice and try to copy/emulate. Eventually there are too many players trying to get a piece of the pie, and hardly anybody is making money. Usually the first person/company is successful because the buying public wants the original.
Personally I don't see how Ford, GM and Stellantis will be able to create comparable trucks at prices close to the CT. Their way of business isn't competitive against Tesla. I think it's like when Kodak tried to make digital cameras. And now Cellphones can do what most people want a camera for.
The times, they are a changing.
 
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