How many FS are they making… is there a chance they cut us off and turn orders into Standard models?

[Cybertruck2024]

Extremely flawed analogy. We are talking a sample (forum enthusiasts) vs a greater population of the exact same type of people, but don't do online forums (still enthusiasts). Enthusiasts are buyers that would bite at a FS level price change. We are the exact audience, and that exact audience exists outside this forum in much greater numbers. Tegtmeyer flies over the factory every couple days and estimates 8-9 trucks coming out per hour as of 1/21. We've only clocked about 16 total here. Our sample is small, but the data supports the take rate. Still just an educated guess. Market analysts think 20%, I think half that even as an enthusiast. If I went by just forum numbers that would be much higher.

It's an argument that we will likely never have the answer to, so we will just need to agree to disagree.

Day one reservation holders are likely enthusiasts, I am with you there. Maybe 10% of these people are ordering. I assume the take rate is higher for them, then the general take rate as we move through the whole list will be much lower. My personal thought is we wouldn't be seeing day 3 reservation holders getting FS invites if the take rate was truly as high as you're estimating, considering we're likely getting 15k FS the first year (also my estimate).

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[Aces-Truck]

This is an interesting concept, since there were about 150k preorders day one. If take rate is 10% and 2024 orders are already almost full, I'd predict that this is the most accurate assessment so far. I firmly believe they will make fewer than 20k CTs this year. End of January and they've delivered maybe 100?

150k orders on day 1? Wow. I ordered on evening of day 5; and am about 192k. I'm surprised there were so few ordered after day 1, until I jumped in.

 

[Deleted member 4261]

150k orders on day 1? Wow. I ordered on evening of day 5; and am about 192k. I'm surprised there were so few ordered after day 1, until I jumped in.

Have the rest of the world reservations been excluded?

 

[carsly]

I'd offer even a 10% take rate is quite high. I'm thinking low to mid-single digits. Why?

• It's four+ years later...
  • Certainly some people have already purchased a vehicle, maybe in the last 2-3 years, and don't want to take a depreciation hit on a relatively new vehicle
  • Prices have gone up, way up, from announcement. Heck, I reserved a dual-motor at $50K with no FSD. If my number gets called and FS is all that's available that's exactly double at $100K. Hmm, not quite the same value, even factoring inflation.
  • Interest rates have gone up, way up, from announcement. Long gone are 1.99-2.99% APR offers. So for anyone financing the purchase price may be doubled, if your config is even available (I'm guessing a lot of single motors on that list) and the actual cost to purchase is more than double given financing costs could be 3x easy.
  • Competition - the Rivian R1T has been readily available for ~6 months for anyone who wants an EV trucklet. I won't mention Hummer EV but it's kind of available. Silverado EV may be coming.
  • Range - I'd offer for many drivers the changes from announcement are irrelevant as the Supercharger network is much more comprehensive than it was in late 2019. For those who tow you do have the range extender option if you want it at the expense of bed space and payload.
  • No single motor - the cheapest variants tend to sell in the largest numbers. I can't tell you the number of single-motor Model 3's I see in a five-minute drive. If you think all pickups need 2 or 3 motors, I think you'll find that many ICE pickups don't have 4WD.
  • Different macroeconomic picture - arguably greater geopolitical risk, mortgage rates are high (in case any prospective Cybertruck buyers bought a house/condo in the last year or two), job uncertainty is rising and, oh, credit card balances and delinquencies are much higher - and are compounding at higher rates thanks to the old inflation-fighting Fed jacking up rates
  • Some folks just are no longer around - sadly, 4+ years is >5% of the average human lifespan, odds are 5+% of order-holders are no longer with us, maybe more since there was that COVID thing

I'm sure people can add to the list. The $100 pre-order amount for a $40-70K vehicle was inconsequential enough for a lot of folks that they probably took a flier. With the resale restrictions, higher prices, high financing costs, etc. noted above it's a little different situation to take a $100,000+ flier on closing the truck purchase. Just a few years ago you could purchase a new, lightly optioned, Porsche 911 for less than that.

I could see take rates rising under the following scenario likely to play out over the next 12-24 months:

• Lower-priced models become available - $80K dual motor and $60K single motor, I'm looking at you, especially with the $7,500 Federal tax credit
• Leasing becomes available - less of a monthly nut to crack vs. financing the truck
• Interest rates start falling - c'mon Fed, work your magic

So it's a good time to launch and ramp. 25-50K trucks this year wouldn't surprise me and neither would Tesla passing through all 2019 reservations (500K??) before year-end, if not sooner.

 

[cgladue]

After earnings call I am confused. In this group alone we have over 1000 accepted invites and still Elon says they have almost sold out, meaning they are making way more than 1000 FS. So what is the target this year, 10k FS? Doesn’t seem as exclusive. Do you think there’s over 10k accepted invites?

is there a chance our reservations will just flip to standard models once they hit a certain number of FS delivered or vins assigned?

One could only hope they say "ok were done FS and now you guys will be front of the line standard orders" but i doubt that would happen unfortunatly.

 

[cgladue]

This is an interesting concept, since there were about 150k preorders day one. If take rate is 10% and 2024 orders are already almost full, I'd predict that this is the most accurate assessment so far. I firmly believe they will make fewer than 20k CTs this year. End of January and they've delivered maybe 100?

they have delivered way more then that

 

[jookyone]

they have delivered way more then that

There were about 100 on 1/25

 

[skinzy]

I'm not happy with rollout. I'm day three guy and placed my order last Friday. It's a bit unfair to everyone. Why am I able to jump the line.....because I was willing to pay more! In my world that's not right. Next I was supposed to get full auto pilot at start price and had to pay more...thats not right. Is this sales tactic fostering Tesla loyalty? No

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