Poll: How many preorders will turn into orders?

[Mini2nut]

Americans are not very patient people. My hunch is that roughly 60% of buyers will follow through with a purchase. Lack of patience and the availability of the F150 Lightning, Hummer and Rivian in the next 6-months will siphon off some reservation holders. And that’s not including the scenario where Q4 2022 CT production gets stretched into 2023 due to production complexity issues, supply chain shortages, etc.

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[ZARDOZ]

At age 65 I've seen a common theme on economics of everything. Once somebody comes up with something that makes money and grabs attention, Others notice and try to copy/emulate. Eventually there are too many players trying to get a piece of the pie, and hardly anybody is making money. Usually the first person/company is successful because the buying public wants the original.
Personally I don't see how Ford, GM and Stellantis will be able to create comparable trucks at prices close to the CT. Their way of business isn't competitive against Tesla. I think it's like when Kodak tried to make digital cameras. And now Cellphones can do what most people want a camera for.
The times, they are a changing.

I love that comparison.

 

[anionic1]

What do you doubt?

-Crissa

I doubt that many people will be ready to buy a $50k or $70k vehicle and have the down payment or means to pay $1000 per month plus insurance. I make a really decent income and I don’t even like the thought of spending that kind of cash on a vehicle. I maintain my ICE truck myself so my cost of ownership is low. Honestly it just seems financially foolish to spend that much on a vehicle. Most people are probably looking at financing the CT and will probably land between $700 and $1000 per month plus probably $400 to $500 for insurance. A lot of people waiting for the CT are first time Tesla owners it seems. Like myself. That reality of $1000+ per month all in is going to surely be a hurdle for a lot of the dreamers. Obviously saving and avoiding financing is best.

 

[Zabhawkin]

I doubt that many people will be ready to buy a $50k or $70k vehicle and have the down payment or means to pay $1000 per month plus insurance. I make a really decent income and I don’t even like the thought of spending that kind of cash on a vehicle. I maintain my ICE truck myself so my cost of ownership is low. Honestly it just seems financially foolish to spend that much on a vehicle. Most people are probably looking at financing the CT and will probably land between $700 and $1000 per month plus probably $400 to $500 for insurance. A lot of people waiting for the CT are first time Tesla owners it seems. Like myself. That reality of $1000+ per month all in is going to surely be a hurdle for a lot of the dreamers. Obviously saving and avoiding financing is best.

I was concerned about this at first for my wife and me. Our current payment for our F-150 is I think $750 for 8 years which will be payed off by the time we get the cyber truck. We payed off the house a couple of years ago, but if you don't count that payment and when you count the cybertruck costing $1000-1200 less per year in operating costs that drops the effective payment down to $900 per month. I think it really sold my wife on the idea when we just filled up the ford for $68, and I calculated an equivalent "fill up" at home ($.125/kwh) would cost $22-25

 

[JJ_Tex]

I doubt that many people will be ready to buy a $50k or $70k vehicle and have the down payment or means to pay $1000 per month plus insurance.

While I agree with you, this price increase is not just Tesla. I just had to buy a F150 and it was nearly double what I have ever paid for a car in the past.

Ford dealers are selling most trucks before they even get to the lot, Tesla will take years before they can catch up to demand, and lots of other car manufacturers are in similar situations. Unfortunately, I do not see prices coming down for a while if ever.

 

[Mini2nut]

Just look at the Model Y regarding price increases. In February we purchased our Y for $48,990. The base price just increased another $2k this past week and is now $54,990. That’s a $6k price increase in only 8-months.

I can’t wait to see the CT ordering page once Tesla is done making changes. The good news? Members finally have some news to talk about! Official Cybertruck news from Tesla lately has been non existent.

 

[SpaceYooper]

I doubt that many people will be ready to buy a $50k or $70k vehicle and have the down payment or means to pay $1000 per month plus insurance. I make a really decent income and I don't even like the thought of spending that kind of cash on a vehicle. I maintain my ICE truck myself so my cost of ownership is low. Honestly it just seems financially foolish to spend that much on a vehicle. Most people are probably looking at financing the CT and will probably land between $700 and $1000 per month plus probably $400 to $500 for insurance. A lot of people waiting for the CT are first time Tesla owners it seems. Like myself. That reality of $1000+ per month all in is going to surely be a hurdle for a lot of the dreamers. Obviously saving and avoiding financing is best.

100% agree with this. Though I will say the current used truck market prices favor making the CT purchase. We'll see what it looks like in another year. I would add that if I cancel, it will have nothing to do with the wait time, that many people have mentioned. It will be due to the final specs being solidified with a price vs. what we were told at the reveal.

I don't want to make too much of a deal about the changing website until we see what it changes to the next time it's updated, but there is no longer any mention of 500+, while it does still say "up to 500..." The range is the most important spec to me. I'm not even considering a truck with a range under 500 miles. By removing the +, they've lowered the bar and my expectation that it will be the truck for me.

Incidentally, my vote in this poll was <25%. I don't know the number of people that pre-ordered more than 1, but many that did order more than 1 ordered more than 2 and most of them will only buy 1... if any at all. If there are 2M preorders then I think Elon has a line of 250k buyers. I think those 250k truck orders will still take a couple of years to fulfill. I think my RN for a CT3 puts me around 97k in the current line. I made that reservation the morning after the reveal. There is probably some formula to determine the "quality" of the first-day reservations vs the reservations that were made a week, month, or a year later, but I'm going to assume the quality is a linear 75% cancellation rate. That means my 97,000th place in line is actually about 25,000th. I have no idea what that means for a purchase expectation date because I don't know where Colorado falls into the regional rollout priority process.

 

[SpaceDoc]

I vote 75-100%.
The CT will very likely turn out better than expected.
Much hinges on the performance of the new battery technology.
If Tesla gets it right and actual performance exceeds the promises, demand for this revolutionary truck will be off the chart.
Then there is the FSD component which is also going to turn the entire industry on it's pointy little head.
VW is already very worried, and rightly so.
The legacy manufacturers won't know what hit them.
Ford will likely go out of business. GM/Toyota/Isuzu will flounder as they try to catch up.
VW will be very interesting to watch.
Personally I really like Citroen and their cute cuddly Ami ev. (not competition for Tesla)
Sure many will be impatient to wait for a late 2023-24 delivery, but many like me will be patient.

Ford is not going anywhere anytime soon.
They are one of the oldest US auto makers, have wildly popular vehicles, are financially sound, did not take bailout money the last financial debacle, and generally adapt well to circumstances.
They may however drag their feet as long as possible to milk every last cent out of their ICE vehicles.
Tesla will help shorten that timeline for them, which has been one of Musk’s stated goals.

 

[SpaceDoc]

Americans are not very patient people. My hunch is that roughly 60% of buyers will follow through with a purchase. Lack of patience and the availability of the F150 Lightning, Hummer and Rivian in the next 6-months will siphon off some reservation holders. And that’s not including the scenario where Q4 2022 CT production gets stretched into 2023 due to production complexity issues, supply chain shortages, etc.

the same “supply chain shortages” effect Rivian and Ford, so no worries there.

 

[Bill906]

How many people on this site made a second reservation ”just in case”? I did. My first reservation was 12DEC2019 (CT3 w/FSD @$7k). I started wondering what would happen if it got totaled and there was still a backlog for getting a new one. I kicked myself for not reserving a second one before the FSD went from $7k to $8k, but did get my second reservation on 22OCT2020 just before FSD went to $10k.
If I don’t total my first one, the plan is to either sell my first one if demand is still high for at least enough to pay for the second one, or just let it go and get my $100 back.

More importantly (to me) how many reserved their “just in case” CT before 12DEC2019?

 

[Ogre]

Ford is not going anywhere anytime soon.

I’m not so sure about this.

The brand I’m sure is safe. The company? Eh.

Over the past 5 years people have gone from not even really thinking EVs are a thing, to where an EV is one of the most popular cars on the market.

Feels like much of the population is right now thinking: ”It would be nice for my next car to be BEV”.

How long do you figure it is going to take people to change right over to thinking “My next car *must* be an EV.”

Another way of thinking about it. Remember how quickly we went from the iPhone being a novelty to everyone owning a smart phone of one sort or another? It was less than 5 years. We are well past “EVs are a novelty” right now and well into the “All the cool kids have an EV” territory.

With Ford, GM, Stellantis talking about being 50% EV in 10 years, do you think the market will still be 50% EV in 10 years? How many flip phones are people buying today? Ford and GM are spending billions and making long term plans based on the assumption that half their business will be flip phones in 2030… that is really bad.

 

[SpaceDoc]

I’m not so sure about this.

The brand I’m sure is safe. The company? Eh.

Over the past 5 years people have gone from not even really thinking EVs are a thing, to where an EV is one of the most popular cars on the market.

Feels like much of the population is right now thinking: ”It would be nice for my next car to be BEV”.

How long do you figure it is going to take people to change right over to thinking “My next car *must* be an EV.”

Another way of thinking about it. Remember how quickly we went from the iPhone being a novelty to everyone owning a smart phone of one sort or another? It was less than 5 years. We are well past “EVs are a novelty” right now and well into the “All the cool kids have an EV” territory.

With Ford, GM, Stellantis talking about being 50% EV in 10 years, do you think the market will still be 50% EV in 10 years? How many flip phones are people buying today? Ford and GM are spending billions and making long term plans based on the assumption that half their business will be flip phones in 2030… that is really bad.

My points are still valid.
I listed some facts, you give me conjecture. ?

Go look at Ford’s website. They have many hybrids and full EVs. If you look at their actual commitments, they are starting to move in a big way.

In any event, I otherwise like your reasoning about EVs in general. the specifics will shake themselves out soon enough.

I am right between next car EV “nice to have” and “must have”. It will depend on something I like becoming available soon (e.g. the CT or F150 lightning).

 

[Ogre]

My points are still valid.
I listed some facts, you give me conjecture. ?

Slight quibble. These are Ford’s own publicly stated goals. That said, I fully admit that any forward looking statements I made based on those numbers are conjecture.

Unless they have a secret other set of game plans, their chance of survival decreases by the year.

Also, not specific to Ford. There will be some fallout. Right now Stellantis is looking pretty vulnerable long term. “We’ll have something in 4 years” when there are likely only 5-6 years left in this paradigm shift is pretty tight.

Go look at Ford’s website. They have many hybrids and full EVs. If you look at their actual commitments, they are starting to move in a big way.

In any event, I otherwise like your reasoning about EVs in general. the specifics will shake themselves out soon enough.

I am right between next car EV “nice to have” and “must have”. It will depend on something I like becoming available soon (e.g. the CT or F150 lightning).

I think this is the key. There can’t be big gaps in the EV lineup to get there. The Cybertruck might not even do it for a lot of people who need very specific vehicle setups for professional reasons.

It can’t be in the must have column if it doesn’t exist.

 

[PointHope]

Ford is not going anywhere anytime soon.
They are one of the oldest US auto makers, have wildly popular vehicles, are financially sound, did not take bailout money the last financial debacle, and generally adapt well to circumstances.
They may however drag their feet as long as possible to milk every last cent out of their ICE vehicles.
Tesla will help shorten that timeline for them, which has been one of Musk’s stated goals.

Maybe Ford will survive, but the Ford current 160 billion debt compared to Tesla 10 billion debt, isn't such a great picture.
Especially as Tesla manufacturing is poised to launch into a new stratosphere of efficiency.
While Ford is still in old school ICE F-150 dependency.
Hopefully Ford and survive as the competition will only make the Tesla CT look better and better.

 

[Ogre]

While Ford is still in old school ICE F-150 dependency.

This is the other thing about the Cybertruck. Assuming Tesla’s prices stick (my assumption), it is going right for Ford & GM’s jugular. If Tesla can crank out amazing electric 4WD trucks for $50k, they cut off Ford and GM’s ability to make a profit.

That’s their bread and butter Tesla has sold 1.5m pre-orders against.

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