Pricing ramifications for Cybertruck - based on recent FSD and Model 3 pricing changes

[canyoncarver]

This is spoken like someone who has never used FSD. I can never go back to a car that doesn't have FSD given how much it's changed my driving behavior.

The price reduction for FSD is a simple reason, V12 is a complete breakthrough and a rewrite which will take 6 months for HW4 cars to train so they're offering a discount because it's not fully functional yet.

I've had FSD and I did not consider it valuable beyond features like auto park and summon which I wish were available separate from the full FSD package.

Things that have happened while using the car in auto-drive:

1. Car getting confused about median changes and doing dangerous thing at onramp and offramp intersections when others were merging into traffic.
2. Car pulling out to pass traffic cutting off other drivers, getting into passing lane and then sedately moving along while people behind became infuriated.
3. Car obliviously driving over potholes, following behind trucks dropping rocks onto windshield, etc.
4. Terrifying phantom braking incidents.
5. Constantly being nagged to shake the steering wheel, even when your hand is on it and your eyes are on the road. Totally ridiculous but fortunately the hack of changing the audio volume is a workaround for this.

I mean, if you like the experience of having a 15 year old with a learner's permit drive you around then FSD is great.... or maybe if you're the kind of person that "trusts in the technology" enough that you don't recognize that FSD is doing lots of things far worse than even a mediocre driver can do.

The one area where I found FSD useful was just having it cruise in stable traffic without auto lane change and then purposefully choosing when I wanted to get over a lane and pass slower traffic. Even then I frequently have to fiddle with speeds, following distance, etc. to avoid annoying other drivers.

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[Crissa]

Has anyone seen any evidence in Tesla's track record that they'll actually honor the original $7k FSD pricing for those of us who snagged an early reservation? I'm hoping so, but I just don't know.

They would be required to by California criminal law. It's an actual, executives go to jail type, crime in the state.

-Crissa

 

[DrShah]

I think the huge price reductions of the x and s are bigger news. The x, which is low volume and has many premium features can now be had for just under 80k and qualifies for the tax credit. That news has me more hopeful than I've been in a long time that the tri motor (or whatever 500 mile range version they ultimately release) will be priced under that threshold as well.

Agree with you, S & X prices coming down I think makes CT pricing hopefully more reasonable.

 

[kbolt]

I've had FSD and I did not consider it valuable beyond features like auto park and summon which I wish were available separate from the full FSD package.

Things that have happened while using the car in auto-drive:

1. Car getting confused about median changes and doing dangerous thing at onramp and offramp intersections when others were merging into traffic.
2. Car pulling out to pass traffic cutting off other drivers, getting into passing lane and then sedately moving along while people behind became infuriated.
3. Car obliviously driving over potholes, following behind trucks dropping rocks onto windshield, etc.
4. Terrifying phantom braking incidents.
5. Constantly being nagged to shake the steering wheel, even when your hand is on it and your eyes are on the road. Totally ridiculous but fortunately the hack of changing the audio volume is a workaround for this.

I mean, if you like the experience of having a 15 year old with a learner's permit drive you around then FSD is great.... or maybe if you're the kind of person that "trusts in the technology" enough that you don't recognize that FSD is doing lots of things far worse than even a mediocre driver can do.

The one area where I found FSD useful was just having it cruise in stable traffic without auto lane change and then purposefully choosing when I wanted to get over a lane and pass slower traffic. Even then I frequently have to fiddle with speeds, following distance, etc. to avoid annoying other drivers.

If you're still comparing it to a 15 year old then you probably haven't used it since 2021. It was in it's 20's last year (2022) and this year it's clearly driving like someone in their 30's ( occasionally texting while driving and makes a wrong move). If you compare it to someone who drives the same route every single day then it falls short. But if you compare it to someone from the West Coast driving on the east Coast (or vice versa) then that's totally accurate.

 

[canyoncarver]

If you're still comparing it to a 15 year old then you probably haven't used it since 2021. It was in it's 20's last year (2022) and this year it's clearly driving like someone in their 30's ( occasionally texting while driving and makes a wrong move). If you compare it to someone who drives the same route every single day then it falls short. But if you compare it to someone from the West Coast driving on the east Coast (or vice versa) then that's totally accurate.

I last used it about 9 months ago before the vehicle I had it on was sold. It was gen 2.5 hardware but I'm not sure that makes much of a difference.

It contributed zero to the resale value of the car I had it with and I did not purchase it on the Model Y that replaced it.

 

[Tinker71]

But they've been selling Model Ys since early 2020. Mid-2022 is more than two years after release, and there is no order backlog in North America. I never suggested that prices do not move. But you seem to be suggesting above that at initial release they will jack up the price of the CyberTruck, and then back that down over time. They have yet to do that on any vehicle release.

The "limited founders edition" shenanigans where you pay an extra $25k for the first edition, which has different wheels and a commemorative pinstripe is a ploy that other OEMs use, not Tesla. They will hit profitability by selling a lot of trucks, not by selling a few trucks for a lot of money. If they launch at $90k, many potential buyers will cross the CT off their list and never look back.

It's about capturing significant market share year after year. Not gouging the most ardent fanatics and then becoming an overpriced niche vehicle. At number 600k you might very well have more battery options. But I would be very surprised if you see a much better sale price.

Tesla is not bashful about supply and demand pricing. It is really only gouging if you don't have a choice.

 

[newwave1331]

There is still plenty of reasons for truck buyers to stick to ICE if pricing is not attractive. Knowing Tesla's intention is to sell at high volume, it will need to be closer to Model 3/Y pricing than Model S/X as long at we aren't talking 500 miles.

Elon's X space with Jim Farley said he didn't want trucks lugging heavy batteries around if they didn't need them. I absolutely couldn't see a 500 mile tri-motor variant coming in below $80k. Going 1000V architecture and increasing the charging speeds was a hint that they would optimize for weight/efficiency over range. I'm sure they will get to producing 500 mile variants when energy density & run rate increase.

Warning: Total Off the Wall Speculation
The large decreases in Model S/X pricing could show soften demand for these products. It could be even more radical and be the end of these products to make room for cybertruck production in Fremont. San Francisco needs all the armor glass it can get. I'd love to see a video of them parking one at Fisherman's Wharf and someone trying to break in.

Without high margins, it probably doesn't make sense to still produce MS/MX. Elon has even said something like they only make them for sentimental reasons. They already announced an end to right hand drive MS/MX. This might be them just clearing inventory.

 

[firsttruck]

.....
Warning: Total Off the Wall Speculation
The large decreases in Model S/X pricing could show soften demand for these products. It could be even more radical and be the end of these products to make room for cybertruck production in Fremont. San Francisco needs all the armor glass it can get. I'd love to see a video of them parking one at Fisherman's Wharf and someone trying to break in.

.....

There will probably never be a volume production line of Cybertruck or unboxed model 2/Q/? in Fremont.
There is not enough room in Tesla Fremont plant complex. Fremont will probably make refreshed Model 3s which with the changes they made will be easier to build (gigacasting), take less factory space (fewer stamping machines & robots) than original Model3 even though they will probable sell 2 times more refreshed Model 3s than the original..

When they need more volume they will make a 2nd Cybertruck production line in Austin.

Maybe a Cybertruck production line in Mexico for customers Mexico, Canada, Australia and other world exports.


Ford sells about 1 million Ford F-150 series full-size pickups units a year around the world.
Supposedly about 20 percent of those sales are outside the US.

The largest markets for full-size F-150 series pickups are probably U.S. Canada, Mexico, Australia, Turkey Argentina, Chile.

Also need to add export sales of full-size pickups of GMC/Chevy 1500/2500, RAM 1500/2500, Toyota, Nissan.


---------------------------------

Ford F-Series is a range of full-sized pickup trucks.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ford_F-Series

.....
Export
As of 2018, outside of the United States, Canada, and Mexico, the Ford F-150 is officially sold in most Caribbean countries (except Trinidad and Tobago, Saint Kitts and Nevis and Cuba), Suriname, Ecuador, Peru, Chile, the Middle East (including Afghanistan), Iceland, China, Cambodia, the Philippines, Angola, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Cape Verde, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, the French Overseas Collectivities of French Polynesia[55] and New Caledonia, Gabon, Ghana, Ivory Coast, Liberia, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Madagascar, the Dutch territories of Aruba, Curaçao, Saint Maarten and the British overseas territory of the Cayman Islands. The SVT Raptor is sold in the United States, Canada, Mexico, the Middle East (including Afghanistan), China, Ecuador, Chile and Peru. Both are available in LHD only.

In Bolivia, Ford F-series truck are imported from the United States. F-150 single, super cab and crew cab are available with short and long bed. F-series Heavy Duty like F-250, F-350 are available in Super Cab and Crew cab with long bed, but the F-450 is available only in a chassis version. The F-150 Raptor is available, too.

---------------------------------

Is the F-150 sold in China?
In China, Ford F-150 has been the top-selling imported pickup truck in its segment for four consecutive years since the local introduction of F-150 Raptor in 2017. The popularity of Ford's pickup trucks coincides with the Built Ford Tough pickup culture rapidly gaining popularity in China.
Nov 26, 2021
https://media.ford.com/content/ford...ill-launch-all-new-f-150-raptor-in-china.html

---------------------------------

“Yes, Norway!” F-150® Lightning Goes Global as Ford Announces its Debut in the World’s EV Capital Apr 20, 2023
https://media.ford.com/content/ford...ghtning--goes-global-as-ford-announces-i.html

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[BayouCityBob]

This table from Bloomberg tells a tale. A $30k drop on the Model S and a $41k drop on the Model X in 8 months is astonishing. And it is even more than that when you consider that the cost of paint upgrades dropped to zero. We ordered an Ultra Red Model S AWD today for $74,990. It was $107,990 on Jan 1. It was $81,490 when we did a test drive last weekend.

Tesla is going to come out aggressively on pricing for the CT I think.

T

 

[newwave1331]

There will never be a volume production line of Cybertruck or unboxed model 2/Q/? in Fremont.
There is not enough room in Fremont. Fremont probably make refreshed Model 3s which with the changes they made will be easier to build (gigacasting), take less factory space (fewer stamping machines & robots) than original Model3 even though they will probable sell 2 times more refreshed Model 3s than the original..

When they need more volume they will make a 2nd Cybertruck production line in Austin.

Maybe a Cybertruck production line in Mexico for customers Mexico, Canada, Australia and other world exports.


Ford sells about 1 million Ford F-150 series full-size pickups units a year around the world.
Supposedly about 20 percent of those sales are outside the US.

The largest markets for full-size F-150 series pickups are probably U.S. Canada, Mexico, Australia, Turkey Argentina, Chile.

Also need to add export sales of full-size pickups of GMC/Chevy 1500/2500, RAM 1500/2500, Toyota, Nissan.


---------------------------------

Ford F-Series is a range of full-sized pickup trucks.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ford_F-Series

.....
Export
As of 2018, outside of the United States, Canada, and Mexico, the Ford F-150 is officially sold in most Caribbean countries (except Trinidad and Tobago, Saint Kitts and Nevis and Cuba), Suriname, Ecuador, Peru, Chile, the Middle East (including Afghanistan), Iceland, China, Cambodia, the Philippines, Angola, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Cape Verde, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, the French Overseas Collectivities of French Polynesia[55] and New Caledonia, Gabon, Ghana, Ivory Coast, Liberia, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Madagascar, the Dutch territories of Aruba, Curaçao, Saint Maarten and the British overseas territory of the Cayman Islands. The SVT Raptor is sold in the United States, Canada, Mexico, the Middle East (including Afghanistan), China, Ecuador, Chile and Peru. Both are available in LHD only.

In Bolivia, Ford F-series truck are imported from the United States. F-150 single, super cab and crew cab are available with short and long bed. F-series Heavy Duty like F-250, F-350 are available in Super Cab and Crew cab with long bed, but the F-450 is available only in a chassis version. The F-150 Raptor is available, too.

---------------------------------

Is the F-150 sold in China?
In China, Ford F-150 has been the top-selling imported pickup truck in its segment for four consecutive years since the local introduction of F-150 Raptor in 2017. The popularity of Ford's pickup trucks coincides with the Built Ford Tough pickup culture rapidly gaining popularity in China.
Nov 26, 2021
https://media.ford.com/content/ford...ill-launch-all-new-f-150-raptor-in-china.html

---------------------------------

“Yes, Norway!” F-150® Lightning Goes Global as Ford Announces its Debut in the World’s EV Capital Apr 20, 2023
https://media.ford.com/content/ford...ghtning--goes-global-as-ford-announces-i.html

---------------------------------

Volume production of cybertruck at Fremont is off the walls but the pilot line was there. Future Tesla bot production would probably be a better fit for space if S/X do get retired.

As for international markets, I just don't see it happening in the next couple of years. Some seem to think China will be the next factory to build cybertruck for the eastern hemisphere. Mexico is still in very early stages, but maybe in 3-5 years. As Ford/GM has grown to service so many countries over decades of being in business, Tesla may someday get there too but it will take time.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

Has anyone seen any evidence in Tesla's track record that they'll actually honor the original $7k FSD pricing for those of us who snagged an early reservation? I'm hoping so, but I just don't know.

They will honor the FSD price you reserved at.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

Agree with you, S & X prices coming down I think makes CT pricing hopefully more reasonable.

+1

 

[charliemagpie]

.........

When they need more volume they will make a 2nd Cybertruck production line in Austin.

Maybe a Cybertruck production line in Mexico for customers Mexico, Canada, Australia and other world exports.

.............

---------------------------------

I think China would have a large enough demand internally to justify production, They also have other markets (Pacific and the subcontinent) to export to.

Shipping would be cheaper, and the distribution network is all setup.

I reckon they would easily sell 250,000 unites per year.

 

[WHIZZARD OF OZ]

The $12,000 is a good hook for all those who saw Elons FSD broadcast. Perhaps in the coming weeks, more V12 updates should net anyone who was 50/50.

I don't expect this price once V12 is ready for Robotaxi.

Tesla is ready to move the extra production after the recent line upgrades. Giga Austin was full of new cars ready to be moved out today. Also, Shanghai and Germany will be looking at a very busy 4th qrt.

Overall, today feel's like Tesla is preparing the groundwork to go the next level.

The iceberg is rising.

YEP! A FRIGGIN' TITANIC EVENT.
THIS happened before our very 'ICE' ( The LEGACY SHIP is S I N K I N G )

 

[WHIZZARD OF OZ]

This table from Bloomberg tells a tale. A $30k drop on the Model S and a $41k drop on the Model X in 8 months is astonishing. And it is even more than that when you consider that the cost of paint upgrades dropped to zero. We ordered an Ultra Red Model S AWD today for $74,990. It was $107,990 on Jan 1. It was $81,490 when we did a test drive last weekend.

Tesla is going to come out aggressively on pricing for the CT I think.

T

$75K for the Model S in ULTRA RED.
ULTRA RAD, and besides that's BLOODY SENSATIONAL (!)

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