Production Start Date?!?

[Ogre]

Don't believe anything you hear, and only half of what you see.

Until we start witnessing CT specific production equipment on-site I wouldn't even bother speculating about production dates at this point.

For the model Y, we started to see dozens of shells and castings popping up in Austin. We saw MY casting machines in place. We saw bodies in white shuffling around.

We aren't to that point yet, so my jimmies shall remain unrustled.

This is almost exactly what I was going to say.

Tesla isn’t going to put billions into production equipment that ends up idle. We’ll be able to make some more educated guesses about production start when that equipment is in place.

My Prediction is 8K ton GigaPress + 6-9 months.

Tesla makes most of their vehicle in-house so they don’t need to share these details with many suppliers years in advance.

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[electricAK]

It seems odd to me that they aren't even working on the Cybertruck production line (is this really true?) What are they waiting for? Why not start getting things ready so the equipment is ready to go when 4680 production reaches enough capacity.

Either Tesla is in no rush at all the start CT production, or there's more going on behind the scenes, maybe in Fremont? Maybe in Austin?

 

[Crissa]

It seems odd to me that they aren't even working on the Cybertruck production line (is this really true?) What are they waiting for? Why not start getting things ready so the equipment is ready to go when 4680 production reaches enough capacity.

Either Tesla is in no rush at all the start CT production, or there's more going on behind the scenes, maybe in Fremont? Maybe in Austin?

Because those guys are in Fremont, we've seen drone footage of the truck being worked on there.

-Crissa

 

[greggertruck]

Meh..

don't need a paintshop
stamping machines are already there
plastics exists already
cell structure is there

Seems like it's not too insane. We need a giga press or 2, and whatever they're doing to fold the body, unless they're accomplishing that with the same stamping machines.

Much of the needed gear is in fact there and in use it appears. There was less than 10% of the actual factory open during Cyber Rodeo. No one seems to fly sneaky drones in the windows anymore. It's not insane to thin there is some sort of Cybertruck equipment already there. I'd be amazed if a Giga press is there, but... who knows.

 

[Halemarine]

Just makes me glad I got the model Y already.

Just makes me glad I got the model Y already.

We did the same September of 2021

 

[JBee]

The only parts they need for CT are the parts they don't already have there for Model Y.

That is 8000t gigapress for CT castings, SS folding for CT body and a assembly line for CT.

They already have plastics, interior, seats, structural battery pack, drivetrain and motors, suspension, electronics, glazing etc and don't need a paintshop, although technically they have one from MY for other parts if necessary.

Building is also mostly complete, unlike when they were setting up MY. To be honest I wouldn't be surprised if CT assembly line isn't just on another level and just plugs into the existing layout. I seriously doubt much of it is going onto the "future development" area. Giga Austin is the home of the CT and is one of the primary reasons for building it at all.

 

[Chip Geek]

October 2023 seems so far away, but honestly at this point I think it's optimistic.

The Cybertruck production area in Austin is an empty shell. If they started building the line today I would expect it to take at least 6 months before any sort of production could begin. Probably closer to a year. After production begins I expect at least another 6 months to pass before customer vehicles could be produced. That puts us out to April of 2023, IF they started building the production line now. But there doesn't seem to be any action there. So yeah... I'm crossing my fingers for October.

This ^

During my Cyber Rodeo tour I saw LOTS of empty space in the factory but there were also areas we were not allowed to go. I asked an employee if there was lots of CT equipment in the off-limits areas and they said no, all of the CT production areas were empty so far.

My belief is that the only part of CT production that is ramping up is 4680 cell production and all of that will be consumed by MY production for the short term. Elon said CT production would start in 2023. Technically, December 31 of 2023 would still meet that.

Note: I *really* hope I'm wrong here. I want my CT just as much as all of you do - but I'm not optimistic based on what I saw. I'm also way down on the list so I'm not expecting mine until late 2024 or 2025+. My only hope that CT3 or CT4 orders will move to the front of the line. I'd switch from CT3 to CT4 if that means I could get one sooner.

 

[greggertruck]

The only parts they need for CT are the parts they don't already have there for Model Y.

That is 8000t gigapress for CT castings, SS folding for CT body and a assembly line for CT.

They already have plastics, interior, seats, structural battery pack, drivetrain and motors, suspension, electronics, glazing etc and don't need a paintshop, although technically they have one from MY for other parts if necessary.

Building is also mostly complete, unlike when they were setting up MY. To be honest I wouldn't be surprised if CT assembly line isn't just on another level and just plugs into the existing layout. I seriously doubt much of it is going onto the "future development" area. Giga Austin is the home of the CT and is one of the primary reasons for building it at all.

That’s what I said but better formatting

totally agree

 

[Alpine]

Cybertruck at this point is like my amended 2020 tax return that has yet to be processed. The less I check on it, the easier the wait. I check this forum once a month or longer. As with my taxes, I'm forgoing any expectations and treating it like a pleasant surprise when it actually happens. Hanging on Musks every word and the endless rumor mill is not for me. My automobile needs are resolved for years to come and the CT will just be an addition and perhaps not needing it helps me ignore the situation.

 

[TAP1A]

This ^

During my Cyber Rodeo tour I saw LOTS of empty space in the factory but there were also areas we were not allowed to go. I asked an employee if there was lots of CT equipment in the off-limits areas and they said no, all of the CT production areas were empty so far.

My belief is that the only part of CT production that is ramping up is 4680 cell production and all of that will be consumed by MY production for the short term. Elon said CT production would start in 2023. Technically, December 31 of 2023 would still meet that.

Note: I *really* hope I'm wrong here. I want my CT just as much as all of you do - but I'm not optimistic based on what I saw. I'm also way down on the list so I'm not expecting mine until late 2024 or 2025+. My only hope that CT3 or CT4 orders will move to the front of the line. I'd switch from CT3 to CT4 if that means I could get one sooner.

same here, as soon as they let people upgrade to a ct4 im jumping on it to get it sooner. heck ill even order FSD if it means ill get it sooner

 

[Ogre]

It seems odd to me that they aren't even working on the Cybertruck production line (is this really true?) What are they waiting for? Why not start getting things ready so the equipment is ready to go when 4680 production reaches enough capacity.

Either Tesla is in no rush at all the start CT production, or there's more going on behind the scenes, maybe in Fremont? Maybe in Austin?

Tesla said at the prior earnings call that they are working on tooling for the Cybertruck (and all the vehicles scheduled to start production in 2023).

To some degree or another, they are working on the Cybertruck line.

This time in the Model Y production cycle, much of the factory wasn’t even finished or only existed in another state, so it’s hard to say where they “Should” be.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

The only parts they need for CT are the parts they don't already have there for Model Y.

That is 8000t gigapress for CT castings, SS folding for CT body and a assembly line for CT.

They already have plastics, interior, seats, structural battery pack, drivetrain and motors, suspension, electronics, glazing etc and don't need a paintshop, although technically they have one from MY for other parts if necessary.

Building is also mostly complete, unlike when they were setting up MY. To be honest I wouldn't be surprised if CT assembly line isn't just on another level and just plugs into the existing layout. I seriously doubt much of it is going onto the "future development" area. Giga Austin is the home of the CT and is one of the primary reasons for building it at all.

In a general way you are right. They have facilities for plastics, seats, structural battery packs, drivetrain, and suspension, but they are purposed for Model Y designs and production. They would have to redesign them for the CT and then build lines to construct and assemble these CT-specific items. From that perspective they don't have 'any' of these items. I might go further and say that even though they have build suspensions for Models S,X,3, and Y they probably don't even have a finalized design for the CT suspension, let alone a manufacturing line for it. There was a recent discussion here about the CT suspension and, based on that alone, I suspect that Tesla has its hands full trying to squeeze the suspension into the available area so that it can achieve the kind of travel it wants and still have the bed space be intact. I suspect the same will go for the entire drivetrain. I am sure that they need all of this year to figure these and other things out.

Now that the building is enclosed for all sections it will be unclear when they even receive equipment that is CT specific. The last time a Gigapress was delivered it was almost missed by the quad squad; who is to say that they haven't already received an 8K-ton gigapress and had it hidden from public view during the Cyber Rodeo.

What I agree with is that they have the skills to do it. I have no doubt that they can get it done this year or early into the next if they will just stop focusing on MY production.

 

[JBee]

In a general way you are right. They have facilities for plastics, seats, structural battery packs, drivetrain, and suspension, but they are purposed for Model Y designs and production. They would have to redesign them for the CT and then build lines to construct and assemble these CT-specific items. From that perspective they don't have 'any' of these items. I might go further and say that even though they have build suspensions for Models S,X,3, and Y they probably don't even have a finalized design for the CT suspension, let alone a manufacturing line for it. There was a recent discussion here about the CT suspension and, based on that alone, I suspect that Tesla has its hands full trying to squeeze the suspension into the available area so that it can achieve the kind of travel it wants and still have the bed space be intact. I suspect the same will go for the entire drivetrain. I am sure that they need all of this year to figure these and other things out.

Now that the building is enclosed for all sections it will be unclear when they even receive equipment that is CT specific. The last time a Gigapress was delivered it was almost missed by the quad squad; who is to say that they haven't already received an 8K-ton gigapress and had it hidden from public view during the Cyber Rodeo.

What I agree with is that they have the skills to do it. I have no doubt that they can get it done this year or early into the next if they will just stop focusing on MY production.

Um yes and no.

The MY already has 4 different seats they have to make, 4 different suspension setups, two different drivetrains, at least 2 different battery packs, all being pre assembled before ever getting to the MY assembly line.

If you look at the Plaid teardown from Monroe he even shows you how the parts also fit on a M3 drivtrain. Most of this is already optimised and production streamlined between the models, theres no reason to "reinvent" the wheel as such everytime you change model. Yes suspension will be different, I was the one that pointed out that its likely a pushrod rear setup, as well as the body. But otherwise the CT is already meant to be production optimised from the start, even less parts, manufacturing etc than a M3.

 

[Ogre]

I don’t get the naval gazing on how close Tesla is. Look at the way Model Y production came online.

We know some critical pieces are missing. Only once those pieces are in place can we get a reasonable guess at Production start.

Tooling for a lot of things can be ready and tested in some back room in Fremont. Gigapress and folding machines cannot. Since Tesla isn’t likely to buy those and assemble them until they are ready to go. They are large and conspicuous, so we have a great way on knowing when this is ~6-9 months out.

Until that happens, no point in getting your brain wrapped around any particular date. It’s likely sometime before December next year. Right now we don’t have a good handle on anything more specific than that one way or the other.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

Um yes and no.

The MY already has 4 different seats they have to make, 4 different suspension setups, two different drivetrains, at least 2 different battery packs, all being pre assembled before ever getting to the MY assembly line.

If you look at the Plaid teardown from Monroe he even shows you how the parts also fit on a M3 drivtrain. Most of this is already optimised and production streamlined between the models, theres no reason to "reinvent" the wheel as such everytime you change model. Yes suspension will be different, I was the one that pointed out that its likely a pushrod rear setup, as well as the body. But otherwise the CT is already meant to be production optimised from the start, even less parts, manufacturing etc than a M3.

Point taken. Sadly, there is almost nothing in the CT other than maybe the displays, motors, brakes, and battery cells that will be reusable. New seats, mirrors, lights, glass. They have adjustable suspension in the S and X but it needs to be redesigned. I am hopeful that all of this is doable when Tesla is willing to commit resources and space to do it…I just don’t think it is as simple as originally suggested.

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