Q2 Earnings: Whats coming

[Diehard]

I think by Sept. @Crissa will see them at Trader joes.

Makes sense. That is where the chips are.

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[BillyGee]

So do you think the Beta CTs will be roaming around in public for us to see or they will be in a secret boring tunnels deep deep under? What has been the tradition with S3XY?

I saw a few model Ys sneaking around near the 101 during the ramp and I occasionally see prototype vehicles from other makers too, usually with that goofy paint job. I really hope we see beta CTs in the bay area. If I see one I'll make a point to stop and take pics for you nerds.

 

[Ogre]

That they wander the streets and nearly no one sees them until they show up in Oregon or next to me at the pizza joint by the beach or the movie theater. It's just weird.

I'm not certain, but I suspect the Cybertruck will be a bit more noticeable than the Model 3. It is quite a bit more conspicuous.

 

[Alan]

I just finished listening to the call twice and reading the report once. Model Y will be produced at giga Texas first with Cybertruck following. Cubertruck beta production is happening now. There is some difficulty in scaling 4680 for high volume. So I'm sticking with sept for beta vehicles and first production deliveries of Cybertruck in q4 2021

My reading was that the 4680 wouldn’t even be ready for the y. They will start the y with normal frame and 2170 batteries. After they get the 4680’s ready they will work on the structural battery pack. After that is working smoothly for the y they will start on the cybertruck.

 

[ColeAce33]

Don’t know how some of you guys are missing this. 4680 is still not ready. They’re having problems. Im usually glass is half full, but it was VERY obvious that CT will not begin production this year. I would bet that there are NO cybertruck deliveries this year. In fact, from the sound of it, i doubt there are any deliveries next year either

 

[Ogre]

My reading was that the 4680 wouldn’t even be ready for the y. They will start the y with normal frame and 2170 batteries. After they get the 4680’s ready they will work on the structural battery pack. After that is working smoothly for the y they will start on the cybertruck.

I don't think they are waiting on the Model Y finishing. The impression I got was they would pull the trigger on the CT (and semi) as soon as battery production gets up to speed.

 

[Raebrek]

ACCENTUATE THE POSITIVE
“We have successfully validated performance and lifetime of our 4680 cells produced at our Kato facility in California.

Am I the only one that heard this good news? Performance, Lifetime. Makes me smile.

 

[Ogre]

ACCENTUATE THE POSITIVE

I thought there was a lot of good news here. Well at least for Tesla as a whole.

As you suggest, they confirmed that the 4680 is very much the next gen battery they were hoping for.

They made a billion in profits and paid off 1.6 billion in debt off.

Texas is still on track, Model Y production will start on time. Even without the 4680 & structural battery they are doing front and rear end assemblies on the gigapress which will result in cost savings & likely lower weight on the Model Y.

Lots of other bits and pieces were positive.

No word on the Gigapress, but then without the 4680, it's less urgent.

Lots of additional details about Supercharger and most of it good. Or at least it is very clear they understand what needs to happen with the charger network: Supercharger growth needs to outpace vehicle sales!!

 

[Diehard]

ACCENTUATE THE POSITIVE
“We have successfully validated performance and lifetime of our 4680 cells produced at our Kato facility in California.

Am I the only one that heard this good news? Performance, Lifetime. Makes me smile.

I see you are one of those people:

 

[Ogre]

I see you are one of those people:

Unless you work for SpaceX in which case it's half full... then boils off in the vacuum of space.

 

[BillyGee]

I see you are one of those people:

Basically where my head is at.

If they're whingeing about how hard it is to build the beta version, that means they're trying to do it and find workable production grade solutions. There's still 5 months of the year left for them to work out kinks and get their repurposed wine presses working.

Honestly, I just want to see the mirror solutions and the final ramp. Everything else beyond power windows is just gravy.

 

[Dids]

Don’t know how some of you guys are missing this. 4680 is still not ready. They’re having problems. Im usually glass is half full, but it was VERY obvious that CT will not begin production this year. I would bet that there are NO cybertruck deliveries this year. In fact, from the sound of it, i doubt there are any deliveries next year either

Hmm. I guess I listened to a different call. 4680 produced at Kato rd are validated. If they produced them why do you hear that 4680 has a problem? In fact they said several times that it wasn't a science problem that it was an engineering problem with the high volume process. So yes. 4680 is ready. The machines that make them at high volume are not ready.
But what does high volume vs low volume mean?

 

[Ogre]

Hmm. I guess I listened to a different call. 4680 produced at Kato rd are validated. If they produced them why do you hear that 4680 has a problem? In fact they said several times that it wasn't a science problem that it was an engineering problem with the high volume process. So yes. 4680 is ready. The machines that make them at high volume are not ready.
But what does high volume vs low volume mean?

I agree with you mostly.

But I definitely got the impression that whatever they consider volume production to be… it’s not going to be by year end.

It’s likely they will produce some units in the near term and dial in the assembly line in the near term.

I would absolutely love to be wrong.

 

[BillyGee]

But what does high volume vs low volume mean?

If it's anything like the solar industry, it's the in the ballpark of the difference between a single handmade bench test and 1000 units a day.

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