So, 1000 Foundation Series @ 50/day should take 20days, unless…

[Woodrick]

No, they have not

you’re confused

still

So all the work that they have done to optimize this for production means so little?
You don't think that they did anything to be able for production to ramp a little faster?

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[CyberGus]

So all the work that they have done to optimize this for production means so little?
You don't think that they did anything to be able for production to ramp a little faster?

There known unknowns.
There are unknown unknowns.
And then there are Elon unknowns.

 

[cvalue13]

So all the work that they have done to optimize this for production means so little?
You don't think that they did anything to be able for production to ramp a little faster?

Tesla has been very clear that once they dial in the revolutionary new production line and revolutionary end product, the CT was built to be manufactured quickly and efficiently. Fine, and fair enough.

But “the ramp” is the part in bold/italics above.

On *that* part, Tesla and Musk have been equally clear that *it* should not be expected to be fast, much less faster than their other platform-cousin ramps.

Confusing the two very different things above has been the source of over 18 months of repeated boot-eating by the crowd of “they’ll produce 1/4 million in ‘23, then 500K in ‘24, then outsell the F150 in ‘25” and a thousand other variations of the delusion there is no difference between “cheap to manufacture” and “easy/quick to ramp.”

There are at least two dozen on point and consistent quotes from Musk in this respect over the past year+, none in wishy-washy terms.
I’ll post only the most recent two of them:

SPEAKING OF THE CT RAMP IN ISOLATION:

“I do want to emphasize that there will be enormous challenges in reaching volume production with the Cybertruck and then in making a Cybertruck cash flow positive. This is simply normal for -- when you've got a product with a lot of new technology or any new -- brand-new vehicle program, but especially one that is as different and advanced as the Cybertruck, you will have problems proportionate to how many new things you're trying to solve at scale.…​

So, I just want to emphasize that one. I think this is potentially our best product ever. And I think it is our best product ever. It is going to require immense work to reach volume production and be cash flow positive at a price that people can afford….​

So, I just want to temper expectations for Cybertruck….​

​

Going back to what I said earlier that the ramp is going to be extremely difficult. And like I said, there's no way around that. If you try to make -- if we just try to do some copycat vehicle design, of which there are literally 200 models that are slight variations on a theme in the combustion engine world, just a distinction without a difference, then it's really not that hard.​

​

But if you want to do something radical and innovative and something really special like the Cybertruck, it is extremely difficult because there's nothing to copy. You have to invent not just the car but the way to make the car. So, the more uncharted the territory, the less predictable the outcome….​

​

I would be very disappointed if it took us -- and that would be shocking if it took us three years. But 18 months from initial deliveries to have -- to reach volume and reach prosperity with an immense -- I can't tell you how much the blood, sweat, and tears level required to achieve. That is just staggering.​

​

I have been through it many times. And here we go again….”​

CONTRASTING THE CT RAMP TO THE NEXT GEN RAMP:

Q: Similar [ramp challenges] path for the next-gen platform?​

A: I mean, there's like unique complexity to Cybertruck….​

… Yeah. I mean, we dug our own grave with the Cybertruck. You know, nobody – in general, probably nobody digs a grave better than themselves.​

​

And special products that come along once in a long while are just incredibly difficult to bring to market to reach volume, to be prosperous. It's fundamental to the nature of the newness.​

So, now the sort of high-volume, low-cost smaller [Next Gen] vehicle is actually much more conventional…. I think it will be quite a fast ramp.”​

Now, what one might say is “Musk is sandbagging” or some such.

But that would be moving the goalposts.

Because we’re here talking about the early quoted that the CT ramp will be 3X faster than any prior Tesla ramp. There’s no rational “sandbagging” between “hardest ramp ever” and “easiest/fastest ramp ever, by an order of 3X.”

They’ve built fewer than 600 trucks since Nov 13th (begin of delivery event units). They’re up to, in the best days, of 50/day or 13K/yr run rate - but it’s still choppy.

Which is all just fine and as planned. They’re doing really hard stuff.

 

[Woodrick]

We'll just have to wait and see won't we?

 

[Woodrick]

There known unknowns.
There are unknown unknowns.
And then there are Elon unknowns.

That's why there is a ramp, duh.

I deal with ramps on every project that I do, 3-6 per year for well over 20 years. Been there, done that.

 

[cvalue13]

We'll just have to wait and see won't we?

Is that your way of saying “despite everything you said, I get to have my opinion, and it needs no substantiation”?

In that case, on whether there’s already a Cybertruck in my garage bought and paid for…

… we’ll just have to wait and see

 

[Woodrick]

Is that your way of saying “despite everything you said, I get to have my opinion, and it needs no substantiation”?


… we’ll just have to wait and see

Yea, sure. I thought that it was pretty self-evident. You are making your conclusions based on the data that you have. I am making conclusions based on the data that I have. And as expected, a lot of that data is the same. And while it even may be the exact same data, most can have very different interpretations.

Substantiation makes an opinion more believable than those that can't substantiate theirs, but it doesn't make it any more true. I mentioned my substantiation, you mentioned yours.

As of 2022, I don't think that I would have guessed that the Model Y would have made it to the #1 car slot worldwide in 2023. Tesla keeps outdoing my expectations of them. I'm optimistic, you seem a little more pessimistic.

 

[cvalue13]

I'm optimistic, you seem a little more pessimistic.

two things:

first, Tesla’s reputation for being late and under delivering is as much up to Tesla as it is their fans who are “optimistic” to the point of convincing others of things that Tesla never held itself to

second, if you call “pessimistic” just restating Musk’s explicit comments, all available historical Tesla ramp information, and all present CT ramp information, so be it.


Again, your “optimism” is supported only by talking about Tesla’s historical volume production post ramp, which is for present purposes irrelevant.

So no, we’re *not* talking about the same info and arriving at different conclusions. You’re talking about irrelevant info.

I’m taking about Tesla having never ramped beyond 40K units in the 4 quarters post delivery event for even cousin-platform vehicles/lines, in response to someone who suggested Tesla would ramp to 250K novel vehicle/line units in 2023, much less 2024.

You’ve said not one word to suggest how that could feasibly happen aside from “you can’t disagree with opinions”

playground claptrap

 

[Jethro]

-Right now, the ratio is about 9 to 1 for AWD vs Beast.

-If you have not experienced a TESLA delivery for a new (launch) vehicle..my best advice is to have ALL your financing ready. VIN's usually get assigned as your car is in transport with no advance notice. With so much demand, you don't want to be skipped.
Once the VIN is assigned, contact your insurance and add the vehicle. If you are using TESLA financing, it's a bit easier. I used my credit union and it involved more footwork on my end.

Congrats and enjoy!

GREAT comments!

I have financing but Tesla has not asked for the money OR sent me a VIN.

I figure I’m around 16K in line (ordered within the 1st hour). I’m surprised I got an ”early“ offer unless FS is not selling OR more than 1000 are being made OR Tesla may withdraw the offer.

Trying to estimate delivery with my upcoming travel…may need one you y’all to pick up the CTB for me

 

[Jethro]

Remember folks that the insurance company only needs a similar VIN to give you a quote if you are trying to figure out your budget and options. I've done this on a couple very early vehicles 2011 Volt and 2016 Model X ... just make up the (rightmost) 6 digits and make the rest of the vehicle match your Cybertruck.

https://teslatap.com/vin-decoder/

WOW, super valuable info! Thanks much!

I already got my insurance estimate and it’s less than $900/year (cheaper than my MYP).

The Rep. said that the “CTBeast” is not listed, but a “CTPerformance’ is…

 

[CyberTW]

Depending on what you mean by it, there is no second line.

Beasts go through the same line as AWD, with some alternate stations/materials inputs

There’s a line, that is ramping - towards a line max of 250K run rate (limited primarily by gigapress)

In Musk time, he said hitting 250K run rate sometime in 2025.

Regardless, the comment I was responding to above was asserting that in 2023 the installed capacity was for 250K/yr - the Q3 shows that isn’t true of 2023

As for 2024, we’ll see in about a week what the “current installed annual capacity” update is - and if higher than 125 would appreciate some explanation from Tesla of what wasn’t installed capacity in October, that now is, when they had long begun MC builds (which are built to test the installed line).

Setting aside line capacity, and instead looking at an annual production total: achieving 125K units in 2024 would be three times Tesla’s fastest ramp to date

and nothing from Tesla has suggested they expect the CT to be its fastest ramp - quite the opposite.

Ya it feels like every “ramp” comment from Elon in the past 6 months has been to severely reduce people expectations for a fast or even decent ramp

 

[CyberTW]

So, it appears that you confirmed that the current line is capable of 250k/yr, good.

Tesla has highly suggested that they are expecting a significantly faster ramp for this vehicle. They haven't built this vehicle for manufacturing (like they did the Model Y) they OPTIMIZED the Cybertruck for manufacturing.

It seems to me that a vehicle that is optimized for manufacturing would be met with a faster ramp than the Model 3 or the Model Y.
You know Tesla, like SpaceX, has an uncanny ability to learn from the past and failures.

With an "optimized for manufacturing vehicle" they are expecting not to have to optimize the line for manufacturing. Just a few tweaks.

It's probably the battery line that will slow them down and that's why they have new battery lines ready to start.

From 3 months ago.. “Musk said he wanted "temper expectations" for the truck, adding the company could face "enormous challenges" in ramping up production and making it cash-flow positive”

They have never indicated a fast ramp for this vehicle.. I wish they did, as I ordered my in may 2022 .. so I might be a ways out.. but I have no false hope the ramp will be quick

 

[Jethro]

50/day, 5 days a week, 52 weeks per year = 13,000 CT's, assuming no weeks offline(?).

Someone claimed the 4680 production specifically for CT limits Tesla to 2,000 Cybertrucks per month, which supports these numbers.

Could be we're seeing the "beginning" of production at 50/day and could max at 92/day, almost doubling output.

I also think Tesla may not be in a huge rush to increase that if FSD and AP still aren't working on CT.

Very interesting, thanks! A few thoughts…

-Does CT production only run 5 day/week?

-might some CTs be delayed due to new 4680 rumored efficiency increases?

-Are FSD delays due to additional CT cameras, geometry, HW or lack or real world info for AI?

 

[vertigo3pc]

Very interesting, thanks! A few thoughts…

-Does CT production only run 5 day/week?

-might some CTs be delayed due to new 4680 rumored efficiency increases?

-Are FSD delays due to additional CT cameras, geometry, HW or lack or real world info for AI?

I'm just grasping at straws here, since Tesla doesn't really tell anyone anything. I believe someone confirmed the line is running 7 days per week.

Rumors about the 4680 issues predate the efficiency increases, but again, no information direct from the source.

I think FSD delays are due to geometry, rear wheel steering, and overall integration.

 

[Woodrick]

I'm just grasping at straws here, since Tesla doesn't really tell anyone anything. I believe someone confirmed the line is running 7 days per week.

Rumors about the 4680 issues predate the efficiency increases, but again, no information direct from the source.

I think FSD delays are due to geometry, rear wheel steering, and overall integration.

The ONLY think that we kind of know for sure is that whatever is happening in the factory today, probably won't be the same next month, maybe.

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