Some 2024 Ramp Calculations Per Q3 info

[cvalue13]

Thank you for this very informative insight. I'd enjoy seeing you put some monthly numbers to this insight and show how it links back to comments on the Q3 earning call.

it doesn’t seem well linked to Q3 or my post at all

Q3 call with respect to 2024 is very vague, and technically talked only about line capacity, not run rate expectation.

that’s why my curiosity about possible 2024 run rate expectation had to look out to 2025 (eg purported hit of 250k/yr run rate), then back into what that could mean for 2024

case in point, where @Jhodgesatmb comments seem to me to go astray of any info on 2024 is this:

he said that about the Model 3 when they first began making it. Once they figure that out, though, their history is to double manufacturing volume every couple of months.

Lots hidden in that emphasized bit, including anything of relevance to 2024

The first 4 quarters of Model 3 ramp produced only 30K units total

if that’s what’s obscured behind “once they figure it out,” it means the rest of the post has non-obviously moved on to talking about 2025 or beyond

put differently, to the extent people are interesting in 2024 production, the entire calendar year is the thick middle of Tesla still figuring it out.

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[greggertruck]

Keep Cybertruck production (and the production staff) in your prayers lol. We all want our rolling, bullet resistant refrigerators ASAP.


I'm guessing a good chunk of these tightened up RCs we are seeing coming off the line now are going to end up in service centers so people can see it in person and at some point, test drives. Just the old humor/hypothesis that make sense to me but nothing to confirm that. Tesla will want to sure up their demand numbers on Cybertruck with the added bonus of getting people in showrooms to get some SEXY sales.


Joe Tegtmeyer, please get drone shots of all vins coming off the line each flight. Thanks. Im sure we can do a go fund me for a higher zoom drone.

I believe @greggertruck has been stalking VINs coming off the line. VINs and date off the line would help with updating projected timeline.



Thank you for this very informative insight. I'd enjoy seeing you put some monthly numbers to this insight and show how it links back to comments on the Q3 earning call.

I guesstimate they've made about 250 since starting things in the summer in Texas.

 

[cvalue13]

I guesstimate they've made about 250 since starting things in the summer in Texas.

about that, since ~June 1st

but probably more than half of those were variously hand built

so the line itself has made, let’s call it, 100 in 2+ months

and not all of those were necessarily finished to a retail standard, since like the RCs they were headed to other fates

 

[greggertruck]

about that, since ~June 1st

but probably more than half of those were variously hand built

so the line itself has made, let’s call it, 100 in 2+ months

and not all of those were necessarily finished to a retail standard, since like the RCs they were headed to other fates

There's been a good fraction of the trucks that have gone off to crash and bash land... womp womp

 

[cvalue13]

There's been a good fraction of the trucks that have gone off to crash and bash land... womp womp

And the ones that aren’t crashed are test units getting some hard miles and lots of engineer fingerprints

only a couple have been spit polished for public consumption

 

[WHIZZARD OF OZ]

There's been a good fraction of the trucks that have gone off to crash and bash land... womp womp

Wonder if there'll be a CYBERTRUCK GRAVEYARD out in the desert one day(?)
A CT goes and goes until it goes!!!

 

[Tacorocket]

Bullet resistant all wheel drive refrigerator ? I like it?

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

huh?

can you cite what you’re referring to, because I believe you're confused

the rest of your post certainly is

huh?

can you cite what you’re referring to, because I believe you're confused

the rest of your post certainly is

I did some digging after reading this and have put together a document with data (and citations) here. In fact, what I said never contradicted what you said about 2024 production, nor anyone elses, nor do I contradict any of them. My question remains: what do we believe Tesla is capable of starting production at, and do we believe Elon that the ramp, from there, will be exponential and, if so, at what doubling rate. The document included here postulates a slower ramp than either GigaBerlin or GigaAustin but still ends up at over 3,000 Cybertrucks per week by the end of 2024.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

for my part, the curiosity was pretty simple:

Musks ‘125K run rate in 2024, and 250k in 2025’ comments’ give some rough guidance about how many CTs might actually get produced in 2024.

We could get a rough lower and upper bounds of possibility total number that may be built in 2024, as well as the rate at which they they may be delivered through 2024.

For a person that’s say, 100k in the reservation que, then, you can get upper/lower bounds of expectations.

Depending on ramp, it could be Tesla doesn’t build unit 100K at all in 2024 (and still hit the 125K run rate), or early in 2024 (if they hit it quickly).

I dunno

Some people have Wordle, I have puzzles like this. ?‍?

The problem with Elon's comments is that he changes them all the time, but that doesn't mean that it isn't a reasonable exercise to extrapolate possible run rates from them. I do it too.

 

[newwave1331]

I did some digging after reading this and have put together a document with data (and citations) here. In fact, what I said never contradicted what you said about 2024 production, nor anyone elses, nor do I contradict any of them. My question remains: what do we believe Tesla is capable of starting production at, and do we believe Elon that the ramp, from there, will be exponential and, if so, at what doubling rate. The document included here postulates a slower ramp than either GigaBerlin or GigaAustin but still ends up at over 3,000 Cybertrucks per week by the end of 2024.

Try copy/pasting your actual comments into your document. All of your "My statement:"s were changed from what you actually said. When you cite something, there should be a link to the article/source, not just the name of the publication. Your rebuttal was as bad if not worse than your original post and does not link back cvalue13's opening comments.

Why would you use the ramping numbers (which they don't appear to be correct) of Model Y at Berlin and Austin? That was their 3 and 4th time settling up Model Y lines, of a rather traditional product. If we had to use one Tesla ramp to relate to, the Fremont Model 3 ramp would probably be their closest to cybertruck. Production ramps are exponential at the beginning but move to logarithmic sometime after its midpoint. The easiest way to describe this is known as a logistic function or S-curve. Its not perfect but with limited information and no crystal ball, it will work.

BTW your final rebuttal shows a linear relationship for "cybertruck production at GigaAustin". I'm guessing those were weekly production rates at the given date (headers would help). I'm glad you put it in a separate document so most will skip right by it and not waste their time as I did.

The problem with Elon's comments is that he changes them all the time

You have something in common with these posts and rebuttal.

 

[cvalue13]

The problem with Elon's comments is that he changes them all the time, but that doesn't mean that it isn't a reasonable exercise to extrapolate possible run rates from them. I do it too.

True

but Musk’s tweets are different from what makes it into a Q3 deck or the prepared comments

The deck said only line capacity (not run rate) is 125k for 2024. The prepared comments said nothing about run rate in 2024, but instead only keyed to the max capacity and achieved run rate of 250K during 2025.

End result:

• if 2024 capacity is 125K, that would be the maximum 2024 run rate (but doesn’t require it)

So the analysis above assumes:

• run rate never exceeds 125k in 2024
• run rate of 250k achieved sometime in 2025 (simplified to scenarios of 1st of the month, each month in 2025)

then, looking at each of those 2025 monthly max scenarios, backs into

(A) when the scenario is disqualified for the requirement of no more than a 125K run rate in 2024

(B) for each qualified scenario: (i) what 2024 monthly ramp production would look like (and rolling total deliveries to that date), and (ii) the resulting total deliveries in 2024


Subsequent to that initial post, I’ve injected the total four-quarter deliveries for prior model’s first year/first line production

If we look at only the “high volume” models (3 and Y), it would suggest that it will be unlikely for Tesla to produce more than a total of 30-70K Cybertrucks during calendar year 2024 (since production hasn’t started, but assuming it does near year end)

Could they exceed that, and ramp CyberTruck faster than even Model Y? I suppose. But for every argument “for” this, there’s a good one “against” this (eg that they’ll make even fewer CTs than Y’s). Takes me back to a rough net net equal, for napkin’s sake.

All of which is to get our arms around the following, coming back to your comment about Musk’s words and how to interpret them:

Anyone interpreting Musk’s words to suggest that they’ll make 125K CTs in 2024 is likely misunderstanding Musk’s words (whatever their worth)

A better interpretation (and historical precedent), suggest they’ll make closer to half of that - all assuming Musk’s timing assertions (250k run rate in 2025) are reliable in the first (ahem)

 

[Rutrow]

here’s what I find for the 4 quarters cumulative deliveries post production launch.


Model 3: 30k
Model Y: 70k
Model S refresh: 19k
Model X refresh: 19k
Semi (3 of 4 quarters): zero

Anyone have better and different stats?

Because the above data should suggest the CT first 4 quarters cumulative deliveries expectations

The most accurate algorithm is to divide the sum the passenger vehicles, by the sum of the commercial vehicles... ?

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

Try copy/pasting your actual comments into your document. All of your "My statement:"s were changed from what you actually said. When you cite something, there should be a link to the article/source, not just the name of the publication. Your rebuttal was as bad if not worse than your original post and does not link back cvalue13's opening comments.

Why would you use the ramping numbers (which they don't appear to be correct) of Model Y at Berlin and Austin? That was their 3 and 4th time settling up Model Y lines, of a rather traditional product. If we had to use one Tesla ramp to relate to, the Fremont Model 3 ramp would probably be their closest to cybertruck. Production ramps are exponential at the beginning but move to logarithmic sometime after its midpoint. The easiest way to describe this is known as a logistic function or S-curve. Its not perfect but with limited information and no crystal ball, it will work.

BTW your final rebuttal shows a linear relationship for "cybertruck production at GigaAustin". I'm guessing those were weekly production rates at the given date (headers would help). I'm glad you put it in a separate document so most will skip right by it and not waste their time as I did.


You have something in common with these posts and rebuttal.

Try copy/pasting your actual comments into your document. All of your "My statement:"s were changed from what you actually said. When you cite something, there should be a link to the article/source, not just the name of the publication. Your rebuttal was as bad if not worse than your original post and does not link back cvalue13's opening comments.

Why would you use the ramping numbers (which they don't appear to be correct) of Model Y at Berlin and Austin? That was their 3 and 4th time settling up Model Y lines, of a rather traditional product. If we had to use one Tesla ramp to relate to, the Fremont Model 3 ramp would probably be their closest to cybertruck. Production ramps are exponential at the beginning but move to logarithmic sometime after its midpoint. The easiest way to describe this is known as a logistic function or S-curve. Its not perfect but with limited information and no crystal ball, it will work.

BTW your final rebuttal shows a linear relationship for "cybertruck production at GigaAustin". I'm guessing those were weekly production rates at the given date (headers would help). I'm glad you put it in a separate document so most will skip right by it and not waste their time as I did.


You have something in common with these posts and rebuttal.

You win. I am out.

 

[Arctic_White]

I did some digging after reading this and have put together a document with data (and citations) here. In fact, what I said never contradicted what you said about 2024 production, nor anyone elses, nor do I contradict any of them. My question remains: what do we believe Tesla is capable of starting production at, and do we believe Elon that the ramp, from there, will be exponential and, if so, at what doubling rate. The document included here postulates a slower ramp than either GigaBerlin or GigaAustin but still ends up at over 3,000 Cybertrucks per week by the end of 2024.

Well articulated and illustrated, sir.

Your logic and reasoning makes sense and your assumptions appear valid. Now, all that matters to me isn't the ramp but rather the price.

If Tesla prices it too high, you can kiss the 250K+ annual production good bye.

 

[Deleted member 17810]

So there is a ramp!

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