Tesla's Cybertruck VIN Activation Tracker (NOT Customer VIN Allocations)

[CYBEAST]

Thanks for the shoutout, @newwave1331, and thanks to you and @cvalue13 for all the help, feedback, and input to get this process going!

In an effort to further automate the VIN activation tracking and take some of the burden off @newwave1331, I have built an automated mechanism to check VIN activations and post them on a website.

A few things to note:
- I am not a programmer by trade, this was just a hobby project. Bugs may be present.
- The web server I'm using to host this is VERY limited in resources. If a bunch of people start hitting it all at once, it may very well be slow to respond or not respond at all. I'll try to keep an eye on this.
- Currently, this process is checking for VIN activations on a four hour interval.
- Feedback is welcome.

Without further ado: http://ctvins.tehkernel.com

Does the VIN checker still pull VINS every 4 hours? I noticed that was removed from the header.

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[cvalue13]

Does the VIN checker still pull VINS every 4 hours? I noticed that was removed from the header.

we're balancing some competing goals

ultimately, based on some downsides associated with calling out (or promising) 4hr polling, and the associated fact that a 4hr level of resolution is really unnecessary (except to satisfy our collective ticks), the comment on the site was rolled back


despite the lack of comment, it'll still be polled frequently in these early stages, but as time goes on less frequent polling is needed (and has other benefits to the process)

 

[CYBEAST]

we're balancing some competing goals

ultimately, based on some downsides associated with calling out (or promising) 4hr polling, and the associated fact that a 4hr level of resolution is really unnecessary (except to satisfy our collective ticks), the comment on the site was rolled back


despite the lack of comment, it'll still be polled frequently in these early stages, but as time goes on less frequent polling is needed (and has other benefits to the process)

I watch it 25 times a day if that helps lol

 

[Rocketman]

With VIN activations being over 1000, is it now *confirmed* that foundation series is above 1000 units? Or could they have started some non-FS CTs? Would’ve been cool to be one of 1000, but I guess I’ll just be one of hopefully not too much more than 1000…

 

[agordon117]

With VIN activations being over 1000, is it now *confirmed* that foundation series is above 1000 units? Or could they have started some non-FS CTs? Would’ve been cool to be one of 1000, but I guess I’ll just be one of hopefully not too much more than 1000…

There's really no way to know. There isn't an indicator in the vin whether it's foundation or not, plus a vin could end up activated but not used for some reason or another. Unless tesla comes out and says what the edition size was, it will remain a mystery.

They aren't really going sequentially either, so even trying to locate the lowest non FS vin will not really tell the tale of how many FS units were produced.

 

[cvalue13]

There's really no way to know. There isn't an indicator in the vin whether it's foundation or not, plus a vin could end up activated but not used for some reason or another. Unless tesla comes out and says what the edition size was, it will remain a mystery.

this isn't exactly correct

no, the VIN does not indicate whether it's a FS or not. But there are other ways of *knowing* whether Tesla has begun building non-FS units. This is how, for example, we know which VINs are MCs and showroom builds (that aren't FS units). At present at least, we know every build is an FS unit, to date.


It is not exactly the case the a VIN can end up activated but not used. While there is a rare, theoretical, possibility of an exception - it is an exception that proves the rule. Because otherwise, a build that fails has it's VIN recycled back to the line in a new build. What's left otherwise, some rare, theoretical, exception, has the ultimate numbers far closer than horseshoe and hand grenades.

Which brings to the final, best, point that we've not arrived at yet:

They aren't really going sequentially either, so even trying to locate the lowest non FS vin will not really tell the tale of how many FS units were produced.

Ultimately, the two key questions will become:

(1) did Tesla stop all FS AWD production then begin all and only non-FS AWD production; if the answer is 'no,' and for any period they begin to overlap FS/non-FS AWD production, it will complicate the task - TBD

(2) assuming Tesla makes a clean-brake between FS and non-FS, from there their will be a slightly iterative process towards narrowing the band of uncertainty, as follows:

At that point, the HIGHEST known FS VIN becomes the floor, while the LOWEST known non-FS VIN becomes the ceiling. If at that time we're so lucky as to have the ceiling and floor be within say 10 VINs of eachother, then we'll be able to with pretty high confidence say: "Tesla built no fewer than [1,500] and no more than [1,510] Foundation units."

If instead, initially, we're the ceiling floor are say 100 VINs away, then we'll still be able to give the above sort of range (which itself is helpful). But we'll ALSO be able to then do some one-off digging to try and further adjust the ceiling and floor nearer. E.g., asking around for VINs.




All told, at the end of the day you are correct that we'll not be able with absolute certainty cite exactly the number of FS vs non-FS. But that is not the only outcome that is of use.

Still useful will be able to say, e.g., "any VIN below [1,500] is definitely an FS, any VIN above [1,600] is definitely non-FS, and for any VIN between [1,500]-[1,600] more info is needed."

As for that "more info," there are other ways of helping that task along.

 

[CTWheee]

The more I hit F5, the faster Tesla builds trucks..

 

[Woodrick]

With VIN activations being over 1000, is it now *confirmed* that foundation series is above 1000 units? Or could they have started some non-FS CTs? Would’ve been cool to be one of 1000, but I guess I’ll just be one of hopefully not too much more than 1000…

Seeing that they may only be barely past the first day orders (not reservations), it's pretty much a given that the number is going to be above 1,000. The question is more like is it 5,000, 10,000, 15,000, or 50,000.

The only hint that I see at this point is that the estimated delivery period is currently through April. Can they make that many? Sure, the date may be off, but 50,000 is more like the entire year.
And don't forget, the current delivery is only for the AWD, the Beast and RWD also get Foundation Series variants.

 

[CYBEAST]

Seeing that they may only be barely past the first day orders (not reservations), it's pretty much a given that the number is going to be above 1,000. The question is more like is it 5,000, 10,000, 15,000, or 50,000.

The only hint that I see at this point is that the estimated delivery period is currently through April. Can they make that many? Sure, the date may be off, but 50,000 is more like the entire year.
And don't forget, the current delivery is only for the AWD, the Beast and RWD also get Foundation Series variants.

Why wouldn’t they offer every pre-order a foundation series? Because they want to make the customers money by providing some exclusive version that was limited to a 1,000 made? Or Tesla wants to to make the money for shareholders by selling every FS they can. They are gonna ramp up to 250,000 CT per year at some point. Cybertrucks will be all over the roads. Anyone buying one as a collector vehicle, prob not a good investment.

 

[Rocketman]

The more I hit F5, the faster Tesla builds trucks..

Can you hit it faster please?

 

[cvalue13]

RWD also get Foundation Series variants.

this based on what?

 

[Woodrick]

Why wouldn’t they offer every pre-order a foundation series? Because they want to make the customers money by providing some exclusive version that was limited to a 1,000 made? Or Tesla wants to to make the money for shareholders by selling every FS they can. They are gonna ramp up to 250,000 CT per year at some point. Cybertrucks will be all over the roads. Anyone buying one as a collector vehicle, prob not a good investment.

Because it is a limited edition. And sure, 50,000 can be a limited edition, especially out of 2M.
Except for some typos or possible VIP situations, they still seem to be only sending reservations to the first 24-48 hours of reservations.

 

[CYBEAST]

Because it is a limited edition. And sure, 50,000 can be a limited edition, especially out of 2M.
Except for some typos or possible VIP situations, they still seem to be only sending reservations to the first 24-48 hours of reservations.

Ask the people that bought the first year 2020 Corvette C8 if it’s a collector model. They only made 20,000 the first year. Now that 120k plus have been made, it’s just another used car.

 

[Woodrick]

this based on what?

Because it is one of the three options when you get the foundation invite. There are AWD, Beast and RWD Foundation Series options.

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