happy intruder

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the CT isn't built yet because:
1) the factory isn't built
2) the steel factory isn't built
3) the gigapress isn't built.

Tough logic to deduce that outcome.
dont forget the batteries aren't built and chips are in short supply
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happy intruder

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I just fixed up my old 98Dodge Truck to make it last until CT gets delivered. Manual transmission re-build, new heater core and all. One more year? Oh well, my RAM1500 is a rugged vehicle, ha! Will do it, I am sure. I just hope, Tesla sticks with the 2019 pre-order price tags during times of inflation. I am sure, more time will make the CT a better product.
yea....I should my perfect 2016 Tacoma......wish I had that back along with my 1967 GTO convertible
 

happy intruder

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It is going to be very interesting watching the other auto companies trying to catch up to Tesla in terms of scale at this point.

By the time Giga Berlin and Tera Tesla are fully online, Tesla will be cranking out 2-3 million vehicles a year. 5,000+ Cybertrucks per *week*. Ford is planning less than 1,000 F150 Lightnings per week in 2023 and less than 375/ week in 2022.
20k truck a month....wow......I wish my number was higher than 46,160........and maybe the some of the bugs would be gone......but I'll bet, bugs wont be worked out until around 80-100k built trucks.....but until they get the battery supply worked out, I think delay will continue to be pushed out
 

happy intruder

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Yes, there is plenty of room in the auto market for others to compete with Tesla, the question is, will others be able to compete on price?

Here's the problem for Ford and GM: Tesla is rapidly innovating to reduce the cost of making vehicles, from the batteries to the motors to the chassis. Ford and GM are always trying to do this as well but Tesla is innovating faster. Every new factory Tesla builds contains their learnings from the previous generation factory. Elon has said the real product is not the vehicle, it's the factory. This is where Ford and GM's factories, management structure and logistics are not an advantage, they are an anchor.

You seem to admit that Ford can't "turn their ship" as quickly but you don't address how they will ever catch up once they manage to turn their ship around. Because they will need to travel faster than the fast, narrow destroyer that is Tesla. Because Tesla is constantly bringing new innovations to their factories to make better cars for less money. Ford and GM have been making the cost of their products go up with each new generation.

Remember, a primary component of being competitive is cost to produce and that gap continues to widen, not narrow. This means Ford and GM will only be able to sell their over-priced wares as long as Tesla cannot supply the entire market. Tesla's business plan is to continue to expand production by 50%-80% every year and to constantly reduce the cost to manufacture to ensure they can sell every vehicle they make. Something tells me Ford and GM don't stand an ice cubes chance in hell unless the American people are willing to do more auto bailouts.

I don't know about you but I'm sick and tired of my tax money going to support inefficient and uncompetitive corporations that have huge debt loads and can only make a profit during good times and need government assistance during bad times. This perverts capitalism and removes all that is good about real competition.
good points......but think the non-unionized Tesla factory is light years ahead or the big 3 in that Tesla can go and build anywhere they want........the big 3 have to get buy in on where they go........ I know there is 2 sides to the union coin, but I believe unions are almost at the end of their usefulness.....red tape to progress.......just like how we cant seem to get needed things passed in congress and the senate.....too much red tape
 

LDRHAWKE

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yea, my wife has a 2019 M3 and I have 2020 MS.....ordered CT3.......I want to get CT, give my wife there MS and sell or trade the M3........BUT, as usual, she does not like that and does not want to give up her M3.....my MS has free charging but she still say no....so I guess I will trade or sell my MS with 11k miles to get there CT.......or maybe sell to trade my wife after 51 yrs......hehehehe
The depreciated value is very little and final payoff will be a whopper.
 

firsttruck

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good points......but think the non-unionized Tesla factory is light years ahead or the big 3 in that Tesla can go and build anywhere they want........the big 3 have to get buy in on where they go........ I know there is 2 sides to the union coin, but I believe unions are almost at the end of their usefulness.....red tape to progress.......just like how we cant seem to get needed things passed in congress and the senate.....too much red tape
--------------

The legacy auto OEMs have choices. The Ford Mustang Mach-e is assembled in Mexico with many parts made in Mexico ( not all parts, maybe not most parts, probably has some parts made in USA, probably has some parts made in China too).

--------------

March 16, 2021
UAW criticizes Ford plan to build new vehicle in Mexico, not Ohio
Ford said in November 2020 it was planning to build an additional electric vehicle at its plant in Cuautitlan, Mexico, where the Mustang Mach-E is produced.
AutoForecast Solutions, said Ford planned to launch production of electric crossovers at the Mexico plant in June 2023 under both the Ford and Lincoln brands.
By David Shepardson
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...-new-vehicle-in-mexico-not-ohio-idUSKBN2B82V9
 
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Ogre

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20k truck a month....wow......I wish my number was higher than 46,160........and maybe the some of the bugs would be gone......but I'll bet, bugs wont be worked out until around 80-100k built trucks.....but until they get the battery supply worked out, I think delay will continue to be pushed out
If it mirrors earlier models, it’ll be slower at first, likely 1,000 per week until they get the bugs out
 

HaulingAss

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good points......but think the non-unionized Tesla factory is light years ahead or the big 3 in that Tesla can go and build anywhere they want........the big 3 have to get buy in on where they go........ I know there is 2 sides to the union coin, but I believe unions are almost at the end of their usefulness.....red tape to progress.......just like how we cant seem to get needed things passed in congress and the senate.....too much red tape
If the big automakers had treated their employees better over the decades, the unions wouldn't even exist. They only got their foot in the door because the automakers cared more about the bottom line than their line workers who actually built the cars. They required workers to do dangerous jobs, often in unhealthy working conditions for as little as the market would bear.

Tesla pays the going rate AND gives every employee stock options. The employees want to be efficient and turn out high quality products because they know the increasing value of their options make them, by far, the highest paid autoworkers in the world. The workers at Fremont have already voted down a proposal to unionize (and it wasn't even close). They can choose to unionize anytime they want but as long as Tesla continues to treat them fairly, provide good working conditions and offer the best compensation packages in the business, they will keep voting to NOT unionize. There is no place for unions when management and the workers goals are aligned.

So, while I think the union is one problem of many facing some of the legacy automakers, it is far from their biggest problem. That would be an organization that is management top-heavy and slow to change. Basically, an inability to keep up with Tesla's blistering pace of innovation towards making better cars at less cost. Ditching the union is not going to make legacy auto suddenly agile and competitive because unions are not their primary problem.
 
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OP
OP

intimidator

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--------------

The legacy auto OEMs have choices. The Ford Mustang Mach-e is assembled in Mexico with many parts made in Mexico ( not all parts, maybe not most parts, probably has some parts made in USA, probably has some parts made in China too).

--------------

March 16, 2021
UAW criticizes Ford plan to build new vehicle in Mexico, not Ohio
Ford said in November 2020 it was planning to build an additional electric vehicle at its plant in Cuautitlan, Mexico, where the Mustang Mach-E is produced.
AutoForecast Solutions, said Ford planned to launch production of electric crossovers at the Mexico plant in June 2023 under both the Ford and Lincoln brands.
By David Shepardson
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...-new-vehicle-in-mexico-not-ohio-idUSKBN2B82V9
It is a shame Unions have forced companies to build their cars in Mexico....wouldn't be nice if all those cars could be built in the USA?
 
OP
OP

intimidator

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Yes, there is plenty of room in the auto market for others to compete with Tesla, the question is, will others be able to compete on price?

Here's the problem for Ford and GM: Tesla is rapidly innovating to reduce the cost of making vehicles, from the batteries to the motors to the chassis. Ford and GM are always trying to do this as well but Tesla is innovating faster. Every new factory Tesla builds contains their learnings from the previous generation factory. Elon has said the real product is not the vehicle, it's the factory. This is where Ford and GM's factories, management structure and logistics are not an advantage, they are an anchor.

You seem to admit that Ford can't "turn their ship" as quickly but you don't address how they will ever catch up once they manage to turn their ship around. Because they will need to travel faster than the fast, narrow destroyer that is Tesla. Because Tesla is constantly bringing new innovations to their factories to make better cars for less money. Ford and GM have been making the cost of their products go up with each new generation.

Remember, a primary component of being competitive is cost to produce and that gap continues to widen, not narrow. This means Ford and GM will only be able to sell their over-priced wares as long as Tesla cannot supply the entire market. Tesla's business plan is to continue to expand production by 50%-80% every year and to constantly reduce the cost to manufacture to ensure they can sell every vehicle they make. Something tells me Ford and GM don't stand an ice cubes chance in hell unless the American people are willing to do more auto bailouts.

I don't know about you but I'm sick and tired of my tax money going to support inefficient and uncompetitive corporations that have huge debt loads and can only make a profit during good times and need government assistance during bad times. This perverts capitalism and removes all that is good about real competition.
All great points.

I am a big Tesla fan, but realistically we have to accept the fact that EVs only represented 2% of vehicle sales in the US last year, so there is still a long way to go with public acceptance of EVs. You would be surprised at how many people still think EVs aren't really "a thing".

So when we get to 2025, I think there will still be a lot of ICE vehicles sold in the US. Joe blow takes years to come around to new ideas. Plus the millions of apartment complexes, condominiums, and homes without garages will slow down those buyers from even considering an EV.

Now, by 2030 it should be a different story. And if Ford (and any others) hasn't "caught up" on battery tech and software, Tesla will have squeezed their market share like an orange in a vise.

The other constraint on a Total Tesla Takeover is even with GigaTexas, Tesla can't make 10 million vehicles anytime soon.

Plus I really think the Government is going to change the rules to help Ford, GM, etc. Somehow they will funnel tax credits to those companies, but not allow Tesla to participate.

The bottom line is consumers will have a lot of really good EV choices by 2025. Which is great for everyone.
 

cybrtrk_maybe

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so we are all frauds…….😊

I vote on changing the name…..” Hoping to be Cybertruck Owners Club”
Or "Potential Cybertruck discusstion with sprinkles of other vehicles for comparison"
 

Diehard

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@John K is a fraud, the rest of us are just pretenders.
I prefer the PC term “visionary“ for John and the rest of us. Our ability to see the future is reflected in the club‘s name. Granted it may be a distant future, never the less those of us with active imagination fueled by random tweets can really see it.
 

HaulingAss

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All great points.

I am a big Tesla fan, but realistically we have to accept the fact that EVs only represented 2% of vehicle sales in the US last year, so there is still a long way to go with public acceptance of EVs. You would be surprised at how many people still think EVs aren't really "a thing".
I'm not sure why you are telling me that. No, I wouldn't be surprised how many Americans think EV's "aren't really a thing". I'm well aware of the current state of perception of EV's in the US. But automaking is a global business which means production and sales volume is sensitive to a global perspective. China became the world's largest automotive market in 2009 and continues to expand at a faster rate than the US.

So when we get to 2025, I think there will still be a lot of ICE vehicles sold in the US. Joe blow takes years to come around to new ideas. Plus the millions of apartment complexes, condominiums, and homes without garages will slow down those buyers from even considering an EV.
ICE manufacturers depend upon global sales for sales volume. All the major automakers have substantial sales in China and Europe and their solvency depends upon maintaining enough volume because their profit is very sensitive to declines in production. As volume declines, the cost to build each car increases.

Joe Blow might be slow to come around to new ideas but Joe Blow doesn't have much money to spend. The largest segment of new car buyers are very sensitive to the value offered so they learn very quickly whether they are getting the most bang for their buck. Money talks. And with the predictable declines in the cost of batteries, power electronics, electric motors and increasing volumes of production, EV's will not be able to be ignored by the typical car buyer. It's a matter of dollars and cents.

By 2025 you will see a flip in demographics of ICE/EV car buyers. The EV transition began with only the wealthy being able to afford them but it will end with only the wealthy will be able to afford ICE. And most of those won't want ICE anyway.

Now, by 2030 it should be a different story. And if Ford (and any others) hasn't "caught up" on battery tech and software, Tesla will have squeezed their market share like an orange in a vise.
I guess we differ primarily on timeframes. I will suggest by 2030 it will already be clear what had already happened because people don't stay ignorant for very long when their pocketbook is on the line.

The other constraint on a Total Tesla Takeover is even with GigaTexas, Tesla can't make 10 million vehicles anytime soon.
Tesla doesn't need to make 10 million vehicles per year to decimate ICE manufacturers for two reasons. One, they are not the only manufacturer of EV's. Two, total car sales are in the process of crashing. By 2025, total auto sales volumes will be close to half of peak sales and with a strong showing of EV's, ICE sales will not have the required economies of scale to be profitable enough to sustain all the large OEM's. Without government bailouts, there will be an epidemic of bankruptcies and reorganizations into companies that will be mere shadows of their previous presence.

Plus I really think the Government is going to change the rules to help Ford, GM, etc. Somehow they will funnel tax credits to those companies, but not allow Tesla to participate.
The Government has a hard time accomplishing easy tasks even when the goals are noble and make good sense. But it's going to be even more difficult to exclude Tesla when we have a climate crisis on our hands. There are plenty in government that are trying to make that happen but it's not a winning political formula so let's see how successful they are. It's a despicable goal and Tesla is far too strong to succumb to such tactics. Plus, I think the American taxpayer is tired of bailing out big automakers. Their time at the top is rapidly imploding.

Remember, automaking is a global business and the manufacturers are not above this reality.
 

LDRHAWKE

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EVs are viable because they make sense. They don't need another faux world crisis.


main-qimg-be5b3d5f3b8e09cdf3abe3378fa31a44.png


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800000-carbon.jpg

The data clearly establishes that there has always been a cycle to CO2 long before man’s industrial age. This is data government wants to hide. As along as they can pretend CO2 has never risen in the past before 1950, then they can tax the air and pretend it’s to prevent climate change. Moreover, while we can clean the air with regulation as we have done, under global warming, they allow “credits” to pollute as long as you pay the government. It is the ultimate scam where they get to tax pollution and people cheer rather than clean up anything.
 
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