Update from Elon: Cybertruck production starting late 2022 and volume production in 2023

[anionic1]

And there's only so much you can move expertise around.

Everyone understands you can't just drop a line worker in as an engineer, but there's only so much you can swap around engineers, too!

Part of that is you have to keep them interested, just like any other worker. Bored workers work badly or go elsewhere. Part of that is skills - the guys implementing the robotics aren't exactly the same guys working on the vehicle design. But the guys engineering out the Y factory ramp are probably the same guys as engineering out the Cybertruck ramp up.

And as I have pointed out: The Optimus stuff highly overlaps with the FSD and factory guys, but in a way which makes both of them more efficient. The same software which makes robotics arms more efficient is the one that makes Optimus have arms. The software which guesses the navigation of pedestrians for FSD is similar to what Optimus will need to navigate itself. And they'll need to be able to make the same 'remember what choices it make a second ago' rather than just be a set of artificial feelings about what's best to do. You know, AI stuff.

-Crissa

I think the truth is that you need guys like Ford and Elon that can manage to keep all the parts and pieces in their heads and set up teams to implement the vision. Obviously there is a lot of engineering and know how but putting that puzzle together and getting it profitable is the work of people like Elon. I think the big automakers have the protocols and the flow charts and the engineering in place and they can more quickly replicate or modify the process, but for these new startups like Rivian or Lucid they not only have to design the product and build the factories but they have to build the teams and iron out the flow and make a lot of mistakes that the big guys already have.

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[intimidator]

One big difference is he has production line in Austin nearly complete waiting to start rolling off Cyber Trucks.

Huh?

Tesla is not rolling CyberTrucks off the line in Austin in the "near future".
In 2023 they should provide us with an update on whether they had to kick start of production to 2024 or not.

They need to do a lot more engineering to get the price of all they promised into a more "affordable" range. If a Model Y costs $65,000+, I am going to guess the CyberTruck with Quad Motors is going to run about $85,000.

 

[anionic1]

Huh?

Tesla is not rolling CyberTrucks off the line in Austin in the "near future".
In 2023 they should provide us with an update on whether they had to kick start of production to 2024 or not.

They need to do a lot more engineering to get the price of all they promised into a more "affordable" range. If a Model Y costs $65,000+, I am going to guess the CyberTruck with Quad Motors is going to run about $85,000.

I doubt that they built a 8M sf facility and didn't start to build it out. They noted in the call that they didn't want to divert resources to new vehicles like chips. Every rich person knows that the longer you wait to build the more expensive it gets. They are building the CT production line and continuing to move forward. Its not like Q1 next year they will go oh lets build it this year then start on the line. They have been putting the model y line together for a year in Austin and started on it once the roof was on that section of the building. No way is Tesla just leaving millions of sf of that factory unused. If that were the case why would they kick off that new cathode building and not just put it in the larger structure.

 

[Ogre]

I doubt that they built a 8M sf facility and didn't start to build it out. They noted in the call that they didn't want to divert resources to new vehicles like chips. Every rich person knows that the longer you wait to build the more expensive it gets. They are building the CT production line and continuing to move forward. Its not like Q1 next year they will go oh lets build it this year then start on the line. They have been putting the model y line together for a year in Austin and started on it once the roof was on that section of the building. No way is Tesla just leaving millions of sf of that factory unused. If that were the case why would they kick off that new cathode building and not just put it in the larger structure.

Where else could they do indoor Car Soccer with Model Ys?

 

[anionic1]

Where else could they do indoor Car Soccer with Model Ys?

Good point. I think indoor soccer with the CTs would be better though!

 

[jerhenderson]

It is frustrating. When I placed an order in November 2019, I did believe it might be December 2021 when deliveries would start.

They have pushed the timeline a few times. Now, after today's conference call, it sounds like 2023 is the EARLIEST that the first models would be built. That is assuming they can get some engineering details worked out (i.e. get the costs under control for what they promised the truck would have).

They way overpromised on the CT. Now I don't know if they can deliver. Maybe if they price it at $99,000?

when someone finds delays insulting it screams one word about them - entitled.

 

[Deleted member 3316]

when someone finds delays insulting it screams one word about them - entitled.

He did say frustrated… not insulted. (Edit: I now see this was in response to another post. To them I say, poor life choices are hard to reconcile)

Some people had their first introduction to Tesla with Cybertruck and had no reason to think Tesla wasn’t good with timelines…

To the OP,
it’s only been delayed once…

It’s just that media outlets keep reprinting old news then speculating on vague comments from anonymous sources.

When I placed my reservation 20mins after presentation start I knew not to expect mine before 2024. Which is also why I got a 4year loan on a 2020 Model 3 rather than the usual 3 years I normally keep cars.

I’m a little frustrated I can’t have it now too… but reality bites…

 

[Ogre]

it’s only been delayed once…

A quibble.

Twice. They updated their website to say 2022. Now again to 2023.

Rivian was originally supposed to release in 2020, didn’t start deliveries until September and only then to employees for over a month. Now we’re in the second month of 2022 and they’ve delivered about 500 to cash paying customers. If you are number 10,000 in line for the Rivian, does it matter that the CEO got his delivered in September?

GM was “On Time” with the Hummer, but has only actually delivered 1 since it’s “Launch” in 2021 and that was likely to an employee or some VIP.

We don’t care when Tesla delivers the first couple hundred, we need to see thousands rolling out per week. Hopefully we’ll see that.


None of which changes…

I’m a little frustrated I can’t have it now too… but reality bites…

… the fact that we’re all frustrated.

 

[LDRHAWKE]

A quibble.

Twice. They updated their website to say 2022. Now again to 2023.

Rivian was originally supposed to release in 2020, didn’t start deliveries until September and only then to employees for over a month. Now we’re in the second month of 2022 and they’ve delivered about 500 to cash paying customers. If you are number 10,000 in line for the Rivian, does it matter that the CEO got his delivered in September?

GM was “On Time” with the Hummer, but has only actually delivered 1 since it’s “Launch” in 2021 and that was likely to an employee or some VIP.

We don’t care when Tesla delivers the first couple hundred, we need to see thousands rolling out per week. Hopefully we’ll see that.


None of which changes…



… the fact that we’re all frustrated.

 

[Mini2nut]

The rumor is that Tesla is having challenges with exoskeleton cost and scaling for high volume manufacturing. I am not surprised as no auto maker has ever attempted to manufacture a 3mm thick SS monocoque exoskeleton before. Tesla will be the pioneer.

 

[anionic1]

The rumor is that Tesla is having challenges with exoskeleton cost and scaling for high volume manufacturing. I am not surprised as no auto maker has ever attempted to manufacture a 3mm thick SS monocoque exoskeleton before. Tesla will be the pioneer.

Pioneering in the wrong direction. Don’t get me wrong. The CT is really cool and I hope to get one but adding all that exoskeleton weight and cost to a vehicle is mostly just for a cool factor and not a practical engineering advancement. And if it permanently delays the CT is it really worth it?

 

[LDRHAWKE]

The rumor is that Tesla is having challenges with exoskeleton cost and scaling for high volume manufacturing. I am not surprised as no auto maker has ever attempted to manufacture a 3mm thick SS monocoque exoskeleton before. Tesla will be the pioneer.

From the time the Cybertruck was first announced the whole structural design has changed for all Tesla vehicles with a structural battery and casts front and rear. It is really a cab on frame now. Front and rear castings structurally connected to the structural battery.This is totally different than the exoskeleton concept initially presented for the Cybertruck or even having a need for an exoskeleton now. . I am not surprised they are having difficulty reining in the costs When trying to combine two different concepts.

 

[Mini2nut]

“The Cybertruck is gonna be an incredible product. I think it may be our best product ever. I think it probably will be. It has a lot of new technology, so it’s hard to make. I bet it will be awesome. I think I’ve said before, but we’re aiming for volume production in 2023. I will provide more detailed product updates on the Tesla earnings call early next year. I wish it could be sooner, but that’s most likely when it happens. It will be something really special, like one of those rare products that happens once in a while that’s really special,” the CEO said.

Note the "so it's hard to make" statement.

 

[Bill906]

Pioneering in the wrong direction. Don’t get me wrong. The CT is really cool and I hope to get one but adding all that exoskeleton weight and cost to a vehicle is mostly just for a cool factor and not a practical engineering advancement. And if it permanently delays the CT is it really worth it?

Exoskeleton moves the frame to the outside shell of the vehicle were it can serve two functions, be the frame and protect the cargo. In theory, it's using the same material (so same weight) as an internal frame, but putting that material in the shell of the vehicle. In theory it's reducing weight because a traditional framed vehicle has the added weight (and cost) of body panels.

We do not have the ability to analyze/validate beyond theoretical. All we can do is assume the people who have that ability (Tesla) is making the right decisions. Our only other alternative is wait until Sandy Munro gets one and tears it down.

From the time the Cybertruck was first announced the whole structural design has changed for all Tesla vehicles with a structural battery and casts front and rear. It is really a frame on cab now. Front and rear castings structurally connected to the structural battery.This is totally different than the exoskeleton concept initially presented for the Cybertruck or even having a need for an exoskeleton now. . I am not surprised they are having difficulty reining in the costs When trying to combine to different concepts.

First, I'm pretty sure you meant cab on frame. (Not frame on cab )

Second, I think you're oversimplifying things. Just because the battery is structural doesn't change the car from being considered uni-body (exoskeleton for CT, Endoskeleton for Model Y etc.) to body on frame. Although the battery has some structural use to it, I do not believe it's the same as a ladder frame in a body on frame design.

Third, although I have no direct evidence to back this up, I strongly believe Tesla knew of the 4680 batteries as well as the ability to use the battery pack as a structural piece from the beginning. The day Tesla told us about the batteries and the battery pack was not the day Tesla learned of them. Similarly, a lot of people thought that after battery day the CT would be able to get more than 500 miles per charge with the new battery technology. I feel confident in assuming Tesla was already counting on the new battery technology when they spec'ed the 500 mile per charge tri-motor just like I believe they were planning on using a structural battery pack from the beginning.

 

[LDRHAWKE]

Exoskeleton moves the frame to the outside shell of the vehicle were it can serve two functions, be the frame and protect the cargo. In theory, it's using the same material (so same weight) as an internal frame, but putting that material in the shell of the vehicle. In theory it's reducing weight because a traditional framed vehicle has the added weight (and cost) of body panels.

We do not have the ability to analyze/validate beyond theoretical. All we can do is assume the people who have that ability (Tesla) is making the right decisions. Our only other alternative is wait until Sandy Munro gets one and tears it down.





First, I'm pretty sure you meant cab on frame. (Not frame on cab )

Second, I think you're oversimplifying things. Just because the battery is structural doesn't change the car from being considered uni-body (exoskeleton for CT, Endoskeleton for Model Y etc.) to body on frame. Although the battery has some structural use to it, I do not believe it's the same as a ladder frame in a body on frame design.

Third, although I have no direct evidence to back this up, I strongly believe Tesla knew of the 4680 batteries as well as the ability to use the battery pack as a structural piece from the beginning. The day Tesla told us about the batteries and the battery pack was not the day Tesla learned of them. Similarly, a lot of people thought that after battery day the CT would be able to get more than 500 miles per charge with the new battery technology. I feel confident in assuming Tesla was already counting on the new battery technology when they spec'ed the 500 mile per charge tri-motor just like I believe they were planning on using a structural battery pack from the beginning.

Yes..Cab on frame. Actually everything changed with new large castings, allowing for a single large supporting structural under the cab, which were not in the original Cybertruck concept. The Cybertruck cab no longer needs the same structural strength as before.

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