Wall Street analysts estimate 65K Cybertruck sales in 2025, but Troy expects 21K

[Trbizwiz]

The last time tax incentives went away, Tesla lowered pricing to offset the credit loss. I suspect they are trying to sell through inventory at current pricing. When the credit officially goes away, the lineup will drop by $7500.

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[countryboy]

In the last few months, the AWD literally went down 27.5%! From $100,000 to $72,500

Where do you get FSD CT for $72.5k? Apples to oranges... not to mention other perks that came with $100k version. Yes, it's cheaper now, but not $27.5k cheaper if comparing apples to apples.

 

[Cybertruck2024]

I keep seeing comments from some existing FS owners that appear to suggest the hope that a "cheaper" version of the CT is produced at what would be a greatly lower price. What would be wrong if the CT remained a higher "premium" product on the Tesla portfolio that Tesla could still make a fair profit margin from it? Perhaps I'm missing some key issue with going that route?

There's nothing wrong with a premium vehicle selling in smaller numbers, that's been a successful model forever. The issue is just that it doesn't match what Tesla told investors the CT would be. With talk of having production capacity of 100k-250k CTs a year, it seems like Tesla greatly overestimated sales. The only way Tesla wasn't very wrong, which is a big business issue where accurate forecasting is important, is if they bring price down.

Without the wrong forecasting and excess manufacturing, then CT would be a success. It's the best selling EV truck, that sounds pretty good. But compared to Tesla's own expectations, sales have missed the mark greatly.

 

[Cybertruck2024]

Where do you get FSD CT for $72.5k? Apples to oranges... not to mention other perks that came with $100k version. Yes, it's cheaper now, but not $27.5k cheaper if comparing apples to apples.

I priced it out and my FS Beast was $500 more expensive than a non-FS Beast today, but that excludes the lightbar because I don't know how much it costs. If the lightbar is more than $500, the FS Beast was cheaper than the non-FS Beast if you wanted all the options.

If you didn't want the options, then the non-FS was better. If you were going to get everything else, FS was better because there was no waiting and it seems to actually be a bit cheaper.

 

[carsly]

Rivian sold around 50,000 R1's last year at prices roughly inline with Cybertruck.

MOST were R1S (SUV). And that's with still carrying legacy CCS ports and limited Supercharger access coming later in the year. I would be surprised if they moved more than 20,000 R1T's (pickup).

So 50,000 annual units for a Cyber-line (pickup and SUV variants) feels inline with where the market is today. It's also similar to the S/X twins. Could it be 75,000+ annual units? I think so, but not without a CyberSUV. That said, I am anecdotally seeing more Cybertrucks running around in the last two months than in the four-five months prior.

 

[dalton108]

I was just at my local auto show, I was looking at the trucks from other manufacturers. A lot of people on here mention how many trucks cost $80k, which certainly is a fact. However, F-150 starts around $40k at base specs, so do other similar entry level trucks from other manufacturers. Around my town, the vast majority of the trucks I see are the $40k-ish trims, not the $80k trims.

I genuinely think they could still sell 100k+ CTs a year if they could get the price down to $55k. If they can't, this vehicle is priced in line with premium trucks and they likely will sell the same amount as comparably priced vehicles. Sure I see some Raptors, but not a lot of them.

There's a reason the Model Y is the best selling vehicle and not the Model X. That reason is price. The X has more features, but most people care about value for money. I don't doubt Cybertruck is a 30k per year seller at the current pricing. Everyone wants a Model S Plaid, but most people are driving a Model 3.

The last Tesla investor call was really telling. The value of the CT was the tech they will bring to other models, not the money the CT is making on its own. It's actually kinda cool that a concept car was put out to market, I wonder why no one else has tried this before. I assume Ram EV in concept form at $120k would've been a rich person toy to show off around town. They already made it, why not make a few bucks putting it to market and pricing it above cost (i.e. - Foundation Series)? For this, I thank Tesla for giving me a chance to drive this wild vehicle that no other company would have the guts to release.

This! Exactly what I said BEFORE this rather painful confirmatory exposition of my conjecture.

 

[carsly]

There's nothing wrong with a premium vehicle selling in smaller numbers, that's been a successful model forever. The issue is just that it doesn't match what Tesla told investors the CT would be. With talk of having production capacity of 100k-250k CTs a year, it seems like Tesla greatly overestimated sales. The only way Tesla wasn't very wrong, which is a big business issue where accurate forecasting is important, is if they bring price down.

Without the wrong forecasting and excess manufacturing, then CT would be a success. It's the best selling EV truck, that sounds pretty good. But compared to Tesla's own expectations, sales have missed the mark greatly.

I don't think 100k Cybertrucks sell annually until:
- Single motor, long range: ~350 miles of range, $70K starting price
- Single motor, medium range: ~270-280 miles of range, similar to old Model Y standard range and Rivian R1 standard range; $60K starting price

Happens quicker if interest rates drop ~100 basis points at a minimum.

 

[dalton108]

I don't think 100k Cybertrucks sell annually until:
- Single motor, long range: ~350 miles of range, $70K starting price
- Single motor, medium range: ~270-280 miles of range, similar to old Model Y standard range and Rivian R1 standard range; $60K starting price

If they couldn’t hit those price points BEFORE trade-war-mageddon they sure won’t be hitting them in the next 5 years.

Get in losers, we’re trashing the economy! Phase one of this plan seems to be:

 

[DJAlan2000]

I was just at my local auto show, I was looking at the trucks from other manufacturers. A lot of people on here mention how many trucks cost $80k, which certainly is a fact. However, F-150 starts around $40k at base specs, so do other similar entry level trucks from other manufacturers. Around my town, the vast majority of the trucks I see are the $40k-ish trims, not the $80k trims.

We are seeing the opposite, or at least much higher prices...

Nobody seems to want the 'base' model of F-150 anyway, at least not around here (Ventura County, CA)...

In fact there are soooooo many F-150's on the local dealers lots right now that it's a bit rediculous! Even their 'overflow' lots are half full of them...

I know it's a popular model (especially around here with a lot of farms and construction), but they are soooo overloaded...

Funny thing is though, they mark the price UP several thousand dollars and then give you a 'discount' because it's on 'sale'? Yep, they add 'dealer markup'...

Average prices are around $64,000, but that's before they add on...

If you want to have the same things as a CT though, you have to add all that on:

Twin panel moonroof
Pro Power Onboard (lower one, only7.2kW)
Bedliner
Retractable Tonneau Pickup Box Cover
SecuriCode keyless entry pad (drivers side)
Tow/hauling package
FX4 Off-road package
Bed utility package
1 year Ford Bluecruise
V8 Engine (even though it's MUCH slower than a CT it's all they got)
Lariat package (501A which is the 'mid' package) gives you cruise control, EIGHT speaker sound system(ohhhh, ahhhh) and heated/vented seats, power seats, etc.)

All that added takes it up to $77,470 (that's WITH the $2000 discount)

So, even if the 'trim' isn't one of the high end ones (like King Ranch, Platinum, Tremor or Raptor!), after you add on all the 'normal' things you get with a CT it's not that much difference in price, but you still end up with the 'middle' model truck (Lariat)

 

[CyberGus]

I suppose it depends on the definition of "profitable".

If they can sell Cybertruck at a higher price than COGS, they will be cash-flow positive. But when you factor in the overhead from the factory construction and tooling, they are "losing" money.

The problem is, the factory and tooling are already paid for, and are depreciating. You won't "save" money by leaving them idle, and they diminish the economy-of-scale in low volumes.

There's no way Tesla would sell below COGS and burn cash, but it might make sense to have a minimal markup to keep sales up. Unfortunately I don't think anyone knows the COGS, or how low Tesla can afford to go.

 

[koolio]

We are seeing the opposite, or at least much higher prices...

Nobody seems to want the 'base' model of F-150 anyway, at least not around here (Ventura County, CA)...

In fact there are soooooo many F-150's on the local dealers lots right now that it's a bit rediculous! Even their 'overflow' lots are half full of them...

I know it's a popular model (especially around here with a lot of farms and construction), but they are soooo overloaded...

Funny thing is though, they mark the price UP several thousand dollars and then give you a 'discount' because it's on 'sale'? Yep, they add 'dealer markup'...

Average prices are around $64,000, but that's before they add on...

If you want to have the same things as a CT though, you have to add all that on:

Twin panel moonroof
Pro Power Onboard (lower one, only7.2kW)
Bedliner
Retractable Tonneau Pickup Box Cover
SecuriCode keyless entry pad (drivers side)
Tow/hauling package
FX4 Off-road package
Bed utility package
1 year Ford Bluecruise
V8 Engine (even though it's MUCH slower than a CT it's all they got)
Lariat package (501A which is the 'mid' package) gives you cruise control, EIGHT speaker sound system(ohhhh, ahhhh) and heated/vented seats, power seats, etc.)

All that added takes it up to $77,470 (that's WITH the $2000 discount)

So, even if the 'trim' isn't one of the high end ones (like King Ranch, Platinum, Tremor or Raptor!), after you add on all the 'normal' things you get with a CT it's not that much difference in price, but you still end up with the 'middle' model truck (Lariat)

I’ve learned over the years that most pickups are $60k+, but wow to kinda get similar to a CT the cost is about the same. Crazy.

 

[YDR37]

There's no way Tesla would sell below COGS and burn cash, but it might make sense to have a minimal markup to keep sales up. Unfortunately I don't think anyone knows the COGS, or how low Tesla can afford to go.

Tesla is discounting 2024s in inventory now that 2025s are available. There is nothing surprising about that; it's totally normal for car dealers to offer a discount on last year's models.

But what is surprising is that the discounts are so small. The current pricing on a new 2025 non-FS AWD is $79,990. The discounted pricing on a new 2024 non-FS AWD is ... $78,390. I just don't think that's going to move the needle for very many people.

Maybe a discount to $74,990 would start to move the needle, but Tesla won't go there (at least not yet). If the non-FS isn't profitable at $80,000 (as Troy Teslike suggests), then that could explain why Tesla is reluctant to go any lower.

 

[carsly]

Maybe $74,990 would start to move the needle, but Tesla won't go there (at least not yet). Possibly there is a reason why Tesla's pricing seems to be stuck at around $80,000.

I suspect it's where the fully-loaded COGS is sitting on that finished goods inventory. Tesla probably doesn't want to unload at a negative margin due to optics and doesn't necessarily need the cash now so can wait out most of the quarter. There is also the residual value impact to leases I'm sure they are considering.

 

[YDR37]

I keep seeing comments from some existing FS owners that appear to suggest the hope that a "cheaper" version of the CT is produced at what would be a greatly lower price. What would be wrong if the CT remained a higher "premium" product on the Tesla portfolio that Tesla could still make a fair profit margin from it? Perhaps I'm missing some key issue with going that route?

The key issue is that Tesla may not be making much, if any, profit from an $80,000 Cybertruck. There may not be a "fair profit margin".

Tesla’s other “premium” products, the S/X were introduced long ago, when the EV market was young and there was little competition. The S/X historically sold in higher volumes and at higher prices than they do today. I’m sure that Tesla recovered all their initial costs for S/X development and manufacturing years ago, so even if the S/X only sell in low volumes today, they still generate a net profit.

The CT has an unconventional design and uses unconventional manufacturing techniques; it was not based on any existing Tesla vehicles. It cost a great deal of money to develop that completely new design, and then to construct a completely new factory capable of building it. Tesla probably needs to sell the CT in relatively high volumes and at relatively high prices in order to recover those high initial costs.

So Tesla constructed the CT manufacturing line with capacity of over 125,000 CTs per year. Last year, they sold less than 40,000, and that was with discounts and incentives that are cutting into profits. So all that expensive investment may not be paying off.

 

[dalton108]

The key issue is that Tesla may not be making much, if any, profit from an $80,000 Cybertruck. There may not be a "fair profit margin".

Tesla’s other “premium” products, the S/X were introduced long ago, when the EV market was young and there was little competition. The S/X historically sold in higher volumes and at higher prices than they do today. I’m sure that Tesla recovered all their initial costs for S/X development and manufacturing years ago, so even if the S/X only sell in low volumes today, they still generate a net profit.

The CT has an unconventional design and uses unconventional manufacturing techniques. It cost a lot of money to develop that design, and then to construct a factory capable of building it. Tesla probably needs to sell the CT in relatively high volumes and at relatively high prices in order to recover those high initial costs.

So Tesla constructed the CT manufacturing line with capacity of over 125,000 CTs per year. Last year, they sold less than 40,000. So all that expensive investment may not be paying off.

It’s almost as if you’re saying that Elon antagonizing his core customers without having a sure replacement for them was not a good business decision. I feel like I “heard” that somewhere prior to this currently unfolding shit show.

I think it was the same exact guy who declared, unreservedly, in late September that without question we would get FSD (unsupervised) on our Cybertrucks BEFORE 10/10/24 because it would be inconceivable that Tesla would think that they could speak credibly about Robotaxis without releasing unsupervised before that on our cars.

It was explained to me by the sycophants that Lord Jesus Elon didn’t care about such things. I think we all know how this turned out.

It’s almost like I’m somebody whos knowledge, judgment and instincts are so good that people/corporations would/and do pay me for my counsel/guidance in business matters.

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