2024 annual delivery predictions: Troy Teslike, others?

[Aces-Truck]

thats a lot of FS

I think you may have typo'd this post. Did you autcorrect, and change a "B" to an "F"?

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[ideaXfactory]

Q1 3000 Q2 4500 Q3 7000 Q4 10000

24,500 for 1st year.

75,000 for 2nd year

125,000 for 3rd year

So I'm guessing a bit lower than most of the other guesstimates here. But those are still impressive numbers, if they are able to achieve them with actual deliveries.

 

[scottf200]

I was thinking our efforts (lost VIN lookup feature) here ended ~2024-01-31. Info below is into end of Feb.

Troy Teslike @TroyTeslike

Here is a VIN chart that shows what Cybertruck production used to look like until Feb 26. It has changed now​

I calculate Tesla's production using VIN data. My accuracy is 98.7% for production. I'll tweet my final estimate on Mar 31. Tesla will release the actual numbers on Apr 2​

 

[agordon117]

I was thinking our efforts (lost VIN lookup feature) here ended ~2024-01-31. Info below is into end of Feb.

Troy Teslike @TroyTeslike

Here is a VIN chart that shows what Cybertruck production used to look like until Feb 26. It has changed now​

I calculate Tesla's production using VIN data. My accuracy is 98.7% for production. I'll tweet my final estimate on Mar 31. Tesla will release the actual numbers on Apr 2​

production numbers are going to be higher than that. you can't fit a ramp with a linear curve. Deliveries may not be, but production by the time we get 9 more days from now will be in the 5k range.

Not sure what vin information he was going from though.

 

[scottf200]

production numbers are going to be higher than that. you can't fit a ramp with a linear curve. Deliveries may not be, but production by the time we get 9 more days from now will be in the 5k range.

Not sure what vin information he was going from though.

Of course everyone understands the S-curve. However, at any small section of it, that particular area for some amount of time looks like linear curve.

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