Wall Street analysts estimate 65K Cybertruck sales in 2025, but Troy expects 21K

[Mini2nut]

No manufacturer is "nailing it" in the BEV pickup segment. Nobody.

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[YDR37]

No manufacturer is "nailing it" in the BEV pickup segment. Nobody.

Nope. So far, all BEV pickups have flopped. Some have flopped more spectacularly than others.

 

[DJAlan2000]

Based on the most recent EV sales data, from 4Q 2024, the Cybertruck was the top-selling EV pickup. However, It did not outsell all other EV pickups combined:

12,991 Tesla Cybertruck
10,703 Ford F-150 Lightning
2,412 Rivian R1T
2,176 Chevrolet Silverado EV
1,401 GMC Sierra EV

In 4Q 2024, the Cybertruck was the #7 best selling EV:

85,506 Tesla Model Y
57,928 Tesla Model 3
18,838 Honda Prologue
18,089 Chevrolet Equinox
16,119 Ford Mustang Mach-e
14,082 Hyundai Ioniq5
12,991 Tesla Cybertruck

For the full year of 2024, the Cybertruck finished at #5, ahead of the Prologue and Equinox, because those two models weren't widely available until late in the year.

I shall adjust my figures (I was quoting from total number for year up until Sept. (3rd Qt).

Also, I saw someplace that ford didn't actually SELL 10K pickups in the last quarter, but that they had 'fudged' those numbers by including 'on lots' of some type (manufacturer?) that hadn't actually been 'registered' but rather 'sold'?

ALSO, someone pointed out to me that Tesla isn't ALLOWED to sell in 16 states! And, another 9 states have limited the amount of dealerships allowed... Ford, Chevy and GM don't have that problem, so they have a HUGE advantage when you're talking about more than HALF the states... Sure, folks are buying them through other 'methods' or, in some states, they are allowed to 'lease' them, but still... If Tesla could put in dealers in every state, then people could take them for a test drive and see...

 

[YDR37]

I shall adjust my figures (I was quoting from total number for year up until Sept. (3rd Qt).

Also, I saw someplace that ford didn't actually SELL 10K pickups in the last quarter, but that they had 'fudged' those numbers by including 'on lots' of some type (manufacturer?) that hadn't actually been 'registered' but rather 'sold'?

ALSO, someone pointed out to me that Tesla isn't ALLOWED to sell in 16 states! And, another 9 states have limited the amount of dealerships allowed... Ford, Chevy and GM don't have that problem, so they have a HUGE advantage when you're talking about more than HALF the states... Sure, folks are buying them through other 'methods' or, in some states, they are allowed to 'lease' them, but still... If Tesla could put in dealers in every state, then people could take them for a test drive and see...

In 3Q 2024, the quarterly Kelley Blue Book EV report said that the Cybertruck outsold the Lightning by more than 2-to-1. And during that one quarter, the Cybertruck's numbers actually were better than all other electric trucks combined. It was the third best selling EV, behind only the Model Y and Model 3.

And everyone here loved those numbers. Nobody questioned whether Ford's numbers were "fudged" (they are the exact same numbers that Ford officially reports to investors) or whether they were fair because Tesla sales are legally restricted in multiple states (yes, Tesla sells in those states anyway, they just have to jump through hoops, and Rivian has to do so as well).

Then for 4Q 2024, the same quarterly EV report said that CT sales were down, Lightning sales were up, that the CT's market share in the EV pickup sector was below 50%, and that the CT was only the seventh best selling EV.

And instantly, questions abounded. Where were all the skeptics in 3Q 2024?

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

Don't shoot the messenger.

Post/Tweet link

Troy Teslike - Wall Street analysts estimate 65,000 Cybertruck sales in 2025, but I expect 21,000 units.

Time will tell. Feature for feature the Cybertruck is very competitively priced. At the end of the day they made enough for me to get mine, and I expect it to be my last vehicle, so what do I really care how many they sell this year. Troy is just trying to get clicks and the best way is to say something outrageous.

 

[YDR37]

Troy is just trying to get clicks and the best way is to say something outrageous.

The only reason is that Troy is influential is because he has a reputation for accuracy. He doesn't care about your clicks -- he wants you to become a paying subscriber and give him money for early access to his data. And that will only happen if his forecasts are consistently on or near the target. No one is going to pay him $$ for outrageous forecasts that turn out to have no basis in reality.

Having said that, it wouldn't surprise me if Troy goes back to his spreadsheets and revises his estimates upwards, now that the 2025 CTs are actually getting the $7,500 tax credit. That has to boost demand and sales.

 

[Speedr]

@Speedr , note the first quote above where the tax credit has yet to be seen and Tesla is tightlipped about it (maybe to get rid of non-qualifying inventory ... who knows).

I don't think you can compare the CT to the TM3 by any means. The CT is *significantly* more controversial in looks, upkeep, in being unique (TM3 is like all small sized sedans), and now politics + associations. I don't see a comparison to the 3, Y, or S. Maybe X in some of it's look*at*me notes.

The tax credit was just announced/approved (the writing was on the wall).

In regards to controversial, you forget how "controversial" and unique electric cars were back in 2016! Now they're mainstream, but back then, it was very much unknown if they'd take off or if it was just a fad (think Prius). Sure, Tesla fans knew, but that was a small number of people...

 

[Speedr]

The only reason is that Troy is influential is because he has a reputation for accuracy. He doesn't care about your clicks -- he wants you to become a paying subscriber and give him money for early access to his data. And that will only happen if his forecasts are consistently on or near the target. No one is going to pay him $$ for outrageous forecasts that turn out to have no basis in reality.

Having said that, it wouldn't surprise me if Troy goes back to his spreadsheets and revises his estimates upwards, now that the 2025 CTs are actually getting the $7,500 tax credit. That has to boost demand and sales.

I used to subscribe to Troy, but then he turned very pessimistic about a year ago, finding the negative in pretty much everything. His actual numbers are still really good for the current quarter's deliveries (i.e. aggregating data), but not his commentary nor his future, long term projections. At least in my opinion, which like his, we're all entitled to have!

 

[scottf200]

The tax credit was just announced/approved (the writing was on the wall).

In regards to controversial, you forget how "controversial" and unique electric cars were back in 2016! Now they're mainstream, but back then, it was very much unknown if they'd take off or if it was just a fad (think Prius). Sure, Tesla fans knew, but that was a small number of people...

It is interesting and expected since it was on the GOV website. I would expect a boost for the 1st quarter for 'pent' up demand but then another drop off (like all the typical quarter-ending trigger events). Will certainly be interesting to watch.

I'm well aware of the controversy of BEV/PHEVs as I've been committed for 15+ yrs of commercial ones (2010-ish). I also had a 3 years wait for a Signature 2016 TMX (which was supposed to be out within a year of my large deposit).

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

The only reason is that Troy is influential is because he has a reputation for accuracy. He doesn't care about your clicks -- he wants you to become a paying subscriber and give him money for early access to his data. And that will only happen if his forecasts are consistently on or near the target. No one is going to pay him $$ for outrageous forecasts that turn out to have no basis in reality.

Having said that, it wouldn't surprise me if Troy goes back to his spreadsheets and revises his estimates upwards, now that the 2025 CTs are actually getting the $7,500 tax credit. That has to boost demand and sales.

I have seen, time and time again, where YouTubers that had been spot on with content and predictions, changed their ‘model’ to increase revenue. I do not say it for Troy but to underline the fact that things change.

Also, you say that Troy might revise his predictions based on the IRA. That is interesting because anyone could have predicted that the CT would qualify for the IRA - his numbers should have that baked in already.

I don’t really have a dog in this fight because I have a CT already, so my focus is on parts availability, warranty service, and improvements to FSD on the Cybertruck, and not on future sales per se.

 

[scottf200]

At the end of the day they made enough for me to get mine, and I expect it to be my last vehicle, so what do I really care how many they sell this year.

so my focus is on parts availability, warranty service, and improvements to FSD on the Cybertruck, and not on future sales per se.

Indeed that is the kicker ... for lower volume vehicles it may take a little longer to get parts, insurance may not work out as well, less techs have good knowledge depending on how many they have dealt with in their neck of the woods, etc.

 

[YDR37]

Also, you say that Troy might revise his predictions based on the IRA. That is interesting because anyone could have predicted that the CT would qualify for the IRA - his numbers should have that baked in already.

I was only speculating. I’m not a subscriber and don’t have the details behind Troy's predictions. Maybe he has already baked that in, and doesn't need to update.

I was thinking that his forecast probably reflected the conditions at the time that he posted it. At that point, there was no tax credit for the CT, and no one knew when it might take effect. It just seemed like it would be hard to bake in the potential effects of the tax credit on an annual forecast, if you didn't know the timing.

 

[DJAlan2000]

The only reason is that Troy is influential is because he has a reputation for accuracy. He doesn't care about your clicks -- he wants you to become a paying subscriber and give him money for early access to his data. And that will only happen if his forecasts are consistently on or near the target. No one is going to pay him $$ for outrageous forecasts that turn out to have no basis in reality.

If ANY of the analysts or influencers were right even 55% of the time (consistantly), they wouldn't need anyone to pay for their 'knowledge', they would be rich themselves!

My portfolio is up 28.08% in past year... I've had some really GOOD investments (SPOT up 166%, RCL up 105%, TSLA up 125% DOCU up 89%)and some really BAD ones too (CELH -41.75%, NICE -17.17, EIX -13.92 (before the fires it was up 1.8%)) but I don't consider myself an investment guru, just someone that does due diligence, keeps my ear to the ground in some sectors and got really LUCKY in a LOT of investments.

But, I always remember what my uncle told me way back in the 1980's... Check companies out YOURSELF and don't pay someone else for their advice unless they can show you that they can predict things at least 60% of the time... Well, haven't found anyone that is THAT good yet!

 

[YDR37]

If ANY of the analysts or influencers were right even 55% of the time (consistantly), they wouldn't need anyone to pay for their 'knowledge', they would be rich themselves!

Troy Teslike is anonymous (it's not his real name). Maybe he is rich, or maybe not. We don't know.

Troy only provides analysis of Tesla vehicle production and deliveries -- he makes no forecasts about TSLA stock, which is what the money is actually riding on. The vehicle numbers and the stock numbers are not necessarily connected. For example, Tesla had a bad year in 2024 in terms of vehicle sales (which Troy saw coming), yet the stock is up.

Check companies out YOURSELF and don't pay someone else for their advice unless they can show you that they can predict things at least 60% of the time... Well, haven't found anyone that is THAT good yet!

Troy doesn't offer investment advice, he offers production and sales data. He has a niche because Tesla doesn't disclose detailed information.

Presumably you look at data when you check companies out for yourself. Sometimes you have to pay for good data.

 

[ehua329]

Another interesting claim from Troy:

Tesla did announce that the CT was profitable in 3Q 2024 -- but that was when all sales were Foundation Series, at $100,000 and up. Troy doesn't think that the non-FS is profitable, and he believes that lower CT pricing is therefore unlikely. This would be consistent with a couple other points:

(1) Tesla is discounting 2024 non-FS CTs in inventory, but the discounts don't seem significant -- like $78,390 vs $79,990 on a non-FS AWD.

(2) Tesla's new VIN decoder for the 2025 model year has codes for dual-motor and tri-motor versions, but nothing for single-motor. So the less expensive single-motor RWD version does not appear to be forthcoming, at least not in 2025.

Seems like the one thing that could definitely make the Cybertruck less expensive and increase sales would be the $7,500 EV tax credit. But the tax credit is not currently available for the 2025 CT (for whatever reason), and no one will be surprised if the Trump administration kills it entirely.

In the company I work for we also submit to NHTSA for VIN decoding specification. The time it takes to update VIN deciphering document (e.g. to add a single motor variant) only takes a few days. I would not rule out the possibility of cheap truck only because it is not currently defined in the deciphering document in the NHTSA database... Just one piece of comment

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