we may be closer than we think to the end of the foundation series upcharge

[jerhenderson]

But what about if the FS conversion rate is closer to 2%? Most people put their $100 down when they thought the truck was $50k. 20% is absurd conversion rate expectation with the price increase and a good portion of people walking away from the brand since 2019 due to politics, it's nowhere near 20%.

I think the conversion will be in a U curve. Early reservations day 1 were probably pretty high, but even this forum shows a lot of day 1 enthusiasts are waiting. The people a few months and years out are probably very low conversion.

Where it gets interesting is the people who reserved in the last few months after seeing CTs driving around. These are people who probably didn't watch the launch and maybe knew nothing about the CT until it was driving around. When they made their reservation, they knew the $100k+ price, so these people presumably are committed at that price. Are there 1k people who made these last few month reservations? 10k? 100k? All of these people should be cutting the 2 million earlier reservation holders who passed the FS if Tesla has a true commitment to its shareholders.

Since we don't know the conversion rate, the entire supposition is meaningless.

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[jerhenderson]

I think this is definitely possible because I put in a reservation one year after the reveal, at around the 1.5 million reservation more, and I have already been invited to configure my foundation truck.

This means that Tesla is nearing the end of their list. Not too many people getting foundation trucks.

You're assuming the invites are going numerically.

 

[panthar]

This is last I heard ... RN 11501XXX getting invite ... which puts this person around .5 M in line ... there were 2 M reserverations ... I am thinking the FS queue is 25 % completed ... I am very positive they will offer FS to each and every person in line ... so FS is not going anywhere for minimum early 2025 ...

Once all FS is optioned to every person then the 2nd iteration begins to downcharge (20K probably) and start again ...

 

[CyberTW]

This is last I heard ... RN 11501XXX getting invite ... which puts this person around .5 M in line ... there were 2 M reserverations ... I am thinking the FS queue is 25 % completed ... I am very positive they will offer FS to each and every person in line ... so FS is not going anywhere for minimum early 2025 ...

Once all FS is optioned to every person then the 2nd iteration begins to downcharge (20K probably) and start again ...

I feel like they will burn through early res faster than that.. they are flying right now. I think the list was front loaded with those that wanted the the FS. But who knows. They seem to being going extremely fast. Like I could get my email in a month or two and I am 1173xxx June 2022

 

[panthar]

I feel like they will burn through early res faster than that.. they are flying right now. I think the list was front loaded with those that wanted the the FS. But who knows. They seem to being going extremely fast. Like I could get my email in a month or two and I am 1173xxx June 2022

are you planning on FS order ?

 

[CyberTW]

are you planning on FS order ?

Right now yes.. I think so many people in front of me are waiting for Non-FS, that if I pass I will wait another 2years for the truck.. and financially the difference isn’t enough per month to deter me.. and I need the utility now. I have a 3 and Y, but family is in a stage where having a truck bed will be sooo nice for our adventures

 

[AV7]

Are most showrooms letting people go inside the CT now or only select ones? Any in SoCal?

I have sat in a CT both at Westfield UTC La Jolla and at Tesla Carlsbad (that was last week)

 

[Kaz109]

I feel like they will burn through early res faster than that.. they are flying right now. I think the list was front loaded with those that wanted the the FS. But who knows. They seem to being going extremely fast. Like I could get my email in a month or two and I am 1173xxx June 2022

I tend to follow the ppl who are actually getting their truck and not just getting an invite. From that perspective they are not “ flying right now “ as we still have ppl that got invites and ordered in Dec and still waiting on delivery

 

[CyberTW]

I tend to follow the ppl who are actually getting their truck and not just getting an invite. From that perspective they are not “ flying right now “ as we still have ppl that got invites and ordered in Dec and still waiting on delivery

True, but many of those are Beasts. But put yourself in my perspective. I was so far down the list, I though no way the FS would sniff me.. and if I got an invite to configure 7-8ish months after initially delivery, that’s pretty rad.. I’m not saying I will, who knows where Oregon deliveries fall in the line. I mean they were in the 1127-1129 numbers for months, and now they have a couple high 115 configuring already.. we can all extrapolate that information as we wish

 

[Killlbox]

Right, so I ordered the Beast - my guess is that less than 4k Foundation series CyberBeasts will ever be made. I'm not waiting. There are lots of other trucks over 100-120k

That’s my logic too. We keep our cars for at least 10 years and being in our early 40s with how long Tesla batteries are lasting with proper care and feeding we think it might be the last truck we buy.
The extras we get for $20k is totally worth it.
OTOH, we also think in the next 10+ years Tesla might come out with something as incredible as the cybertruck is today. In that case, we want to extra resale value that comes with a rare vehicle.

 

[CyberTW]

That’s my logic too. We keep our cars for at least 10 years and being in our early 40s with how long Tesla batteries are lasting with proper care and feeding we think it might be the last truck we buy.
The extras we get for $20k is totally worth it.
OTOH, we also think in the next 10+ years Tesla might come out with something as incredible as the cybertruck is today. In that case, we want to extra resale value that comes with a rare vehicle.

Plus getting FSD (not for free but at a rate that in 3 years if they go unsupervised is a bargain and adds value) COULD prove valuable (jury is out when and how)

But I am with you. I hope to keep it for a long time

 

[Arctic_White]

Plus getting FSD (not for free but at a rate that in 3 years if they go unsupervised is a bargain and adds value) COULD prove valuable (jury is out when and how)

But I am with you. I hope to keep it for a long time

Like you, I am also very aware of the fact that if I say "no" to the FS, I may be waiting for at least another year if not more.

Lots of folks here are waiting for sub-$80K Cybertruck, so the demand is definitely there. It's all about pricing now, and Tesla is smart to offer FS to everyone before going back to the queue and start offering the less expensive version.

 

[Cactusrick]

At 70 it will be my last truck, then my sons and grandsons... 50 years from now they will be bring high $$ running across the auctions block. It'll be a collector's item?

 

[Killlbox]

Are most showrooms letting people go inside the CT now or only select ones? Any in SoCal?

The store in Aurora, CO is letting people in the trucks.

 

[Cactusrick]

No Vin yet....exp delivery was Oct-Dec...

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