Who really wants to know what the CT final specs and features are going to be? The OEMS.

[Luke42]

This million mile battery talk makes me wonder if Tesla should sell an “upgraded” battery pack with a million mile battery. The battery itself would be the same, it would just have a 1 million mile warrantee to retain at least 80% of battery capacity. Given the statistics they have on them, they could utterly crush it with profit margins on those. Particularly since the bulk of bad failures happen within the existing warrantee.

They won’t because Tesla doesn’t play those games; but I’m sure plenty of people would pay for it just for the piece of mind of knowing they won’t have to worry about battery failure.

The million-mile battery rumor is still just a rumor.

My guesstimate is that the 500+ mile CT will very likely have a million mile battery pack.

The math is simple. The lithium battery cells I've shopped (except for LiPos) for are rated to anything from 800 cycles through 3500 cycles depending on the chemistry and quality of manufacture.

500 miles * 3500 = 1,750,000 miles

With electrical components, rating means the component is supposed to stay within spec for the rated lifetime, but the will often remain useful for much much longer than the rated lifetime. But we have to stick with the ratings, because that's what's in the datasheet.

Tesla's high nickel cells ought to hit the million-mile rated lifetime just fine in a 500+ mile pack, even if they turn out to have a lower cycle-count than LiFePO4 cells.

A 250 mile battery would require cells rated for 4000 cycles, which is higher than any of the consumer/hobbyist grade LiFePO4 cells I've shopped for. It's more of a stretch to get this battery to a million miles than the 500+ mile truck -- but it's within the realm of possibility.

But cycle count isn't the only way batteries wear out. The years will most likely age these batteries before the miles do -- we'll have to look at the shelf-life ratings of the batteries, too, if they're even rated that way.

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[SpaceYooper]

Here is just an example what a used S85 Tesla battery w/ 60k miles on it is valued at: $17k https://www.ebay.com/itm/143993046942?hash=item2186a7879e:g:vy4AAOSwCppel2A0

That "dead" CT3 battery would have some real $ value to it.

Simply search on what the Tesla batteries sell for (sold for not listed price).

Even if its a wash. Is it a better truck? More enjoyable to drive? How about the reduction in emissions and carbon footprint? Also, there is a reasonable chance the battery pack will be considerably cheaper by the time you replace it, although we don’t know by how much.

So it may come down to whether or not the structural pack is replaceable...or replace the entire truck to get back to 500 miles of range. Or it becomes a robo taxi at that point to fund these crazy ass bed campers that are as expensive as the trucks they are going into.

 

[GnarlyDudeLive]

So it may come down to whether or not the structural pack is replaceable...or replace the entire truck to get back to 500 miles of range. Or it becomes a robo taxi at that point to fund these crazy ass bed campers that are as expensive as the trucks they are going into.

I can't speak for everyone but it seems dead set that you believe your battery is going to be useless for your needs in 10 years or so. If you fully believe that, you may be jumping into an EV before it meets your personal needs. You may want to wait until Elon announces some more specs and maybe even the quad model as perhaps there could be a larger millage model in the works like say a 600 mile range. This may perhaps give you the peace of mind you appear to desire as well as an acceptable amount of range loss over time.

How often do you plan to do trips where you are going to travel near 500 mile in a single day or 250 pulling a trailer?

Is using a super charger along the way at some point not an option for you?

What is your absolute minimum millage on a singe charge requirement assuming battery degradation?

 

[SpaceYooper]

I can't speak for everyone but it seems dead set that you believe your battery is going to be useless for your needs in 10 years or so. If you fully believe that, you may be jumping into an EV before it meets your personal needs. You may want to wait until Elon announces some more specs and maybe even the quad model as perhaps there could be a larger millage model in the works like say a 600 mile range. This may perhaps give you the peace of mind you appear to desire as well as an acceptable amount of range loss over time.

How often do you plan to do trips where you are going to travel near 500 mile in a single day or 250 pulling a trailer?

Is using a super charger along the way at some point not an option for you?

What is your absolute minimum millage on a singe charge requirement assuming battery degradation?

I don't think it will be useless, I just don't think it will be capable of 500 miles. Whether or not it's too early in the EV development or not is what I'm trying to figure out. When I first brought up concerns, I was told I shouldn't be concerned, because there are lots more chargers then I'm aware of and the batteries are far better then their warranties. So the discussion continues.

My concerns are not range with towing. They are range in cold weather camping in the mountains where mud, slush, snow covered unpaved roads are the norm when hunting and the closest charger is well out of the way and in the wrong direction. Putting in a couple hundred miles a week is common. In crap conditions that 500 miles of range might be 300 and I need something left in the "tank" to get me back to a charger. I use one vehicle for all things; daily commuter, road tripper, grocery getter, camping/hunting, etc.

But you are right in that the tech/infrastructure might not be ready yet to support this without some compromise.
That's what I'm trying to figure out; whether that means potentially requiring a new battery, or something else.

 

[Crissa]

You go three to five hundred miles in the snow without stopping anywhere there's power? My gas car couldn't do that.

-Crissa

 

[GnarlyDudeLive]

BTW: The context of what you need or are trying to achieve greatly helps folks best respond to concerns and questions. After reviewing the thread I could see it was never really in the scope. This does greatly help in understand how to communicate better with you and why I asked the questions I did.

When I first brought up concerns, I was told I shouldn't be concerned, because there are lots more chargers then I'm aware of and the batteries are far better then their warranties. So the discussion continues.

Importantly: Keep in mind even an ICE engine will lose its MPG rating over time as well due to wear and tear on the zillion moving parts and ever decreasing compression in the piston chambers. I have no numbers as comparison but I would not be surprised at all if the drop in MPG vs eMPG on a 250k millage ICE vs a CT3/4 could be very comparable. This is a topic I rarely see talked about in these types of discussions.

But you are right in that the tech/infrastructure might not be ready yet to support this without some compromise.
That's what I'm trying to figure out; whether that means potentially requiring a new battery, or something else.

The charging network will likely be exponentially larger over the next 5-10 years well before a loss of range starts to become a factor. I believe Tesla alone plans a 2x-3x larger network in just the next 2 years.

 

[Crissa]

My car has lost less than 2% efficiency over 100k.

That's not really comparable to 20% range loss.

But as pointed out earlier, that not typical.
https://electrek.co/2020/06/06/tesla-battery-degradation-replacement/

Tesla typically shows less than 10% loss after a hundred thousand miles.

-Crissa

 

[GnarlyDudeLive]

My car has lost less than 2% efficiency over 100k.

That's not really comparable to 20% range loss.

But as pointed out earlier, that not typical.
https://electrek.co/2020/06/06/tesla-battery-degradation-replacement/

Tesla typically shows less than 10% loss after a hundred thousand miles.

-Crissa

While true at 100k, it tends to be more of a curve rather than linear for ICE as well, where the curve goes down quick at the end for ICE (compound loses due to multiple wearing parts) and the inverse for EV where as the curve is large at the the beginning but then the loses become more gradual over time. This is from most charts I have reviewed. So for the time being I will stand by my estimate for 250k miles. LOL

 

[SpaceYooper]

You go three to five hundred miles in the snow without stopping anywhere there's power? My gas car couldn't do that.

-Crissa

No. I've mentioned it before but I know not everyone reads every post or remembers every post they have commented on, but here's my response to a similar discussion in a different thread.

My F150 works fine for my needs and it has about 480 miles of range now...maybe 430 if I don't run it down to fumes and refill when the gas light comes on with 50 miles to go. But gas stations are everywhere and filling is quick. Until the charging infrastructure catches up to the gas station infrastructure I need that EV capacity of 500+. Reason being, when I go hunt, I will arrive at my destination (Per ABRP) with 80% charge. That assumes I charge to 90% at the last charger closest to the destination. So....80% x 500 = 400. But I can't run it down to 0 either. If it's going to take me 10% to get to the charger I should leave with 20% to be safe and stay within the optimal battery charge state. So that gives me about 60% of the battery range to actually hunt with. That's about 300 miles. In theory that is plenty. I routinely drive 200 miles hunting (over the course of a week).

From a previous discussion from another forum member...

Please never ever expect to go the full range of your battery. There needs to be some buffer above and below. As some are saying, range is your usage per mile x the watts remaining - a safe % at the bottom. I recently started part full with 205 miles of estimated range, drove 136 miles to the next chargers, and had only 3 miles remaining, at reduced speeds! It was cold and raining so the car quickly told me my watts usage was too high to make that distance at that speed. I slowed to what it said and made it. Never ever assume you will ever go 500 miles when the rating is for 500.

He got 67% of his starting range. My driving conditions are going to be cold, and could be sloppy, and maybe have chains on the tires. 67% might be optimal for me, but using that number; 67% of my previously figured 300 miles available is 201 miles...which barely works for my 200 miles of hunting need, but it does work and I could adjust a little if necessary.

550 miles of range over delivery adds a little more wiggle room and would be nice, but again, I also want that 500 miles of range available for the next 15 years (battery degradation says no) or much better built out EV infrastructure, (which I won't know and can't predict at the time of purchase.) and I'd like it warrantied (which current Tesla's...nor any other EV have). Which brings me back to hope and prayers for battery range, battery degradation, and battery warranty over delivery.

I know this all sounds like a ridiculous desire. However, I would ask you to consider that my current truck meets these needs with ease. If Tesla is looking for converts, there are a lot men and women like me out there. I'm pulling for Tesla to deliver. As a lifetime pick-up truck owner, I never looked twice at EVs because, 1) they were all cars or some SUVs, 2) even those vehicles didn't have the range I would want and 3) I figured if a pick up truck was ever made it would be geared toward fleet vehicles that don't need a ton of range. Then CT was revealed and I was pumped when I saw the specs and pricing. 500+!!!! That's awesome!! I became less pumped the more I learned about about EVs actual ranges to keep the battery healthy, battery degradation and warranties, & insurance costs. Time will tell. Maybe Tesla is delaying any new info until they can meet the expectations of the ignorant pick-up truck owners like me who thought we were being shown a truck that required no compromise to switch from ICE.

 

[SpaceYooper]

Importantly: Keep in mind even an ICE engine will lose its MPG rating over time as well due to wear and tear on the zillion moving parts and ever decreasing compression in the piston chambers. I have no numbers as comparison but I would not be surprised at all if the drop in MPG vs eMPG on a 250k millage ICE vs a CT3/4 could be very comparable. This is a topic I rarely see talked about in these types of discussions.

My last truck was an F250 that I traded in with over 250k miles on it. I was getting about 16MPG which is pretty darn close to what it was brand new for a 97' F250 diesel. Here's a screenshot from my fuelly account. I only used the account for about 15-18 months I think (that's the 24489 miles).

My current 2013 F150 3.5L EcoBoost has over 100k miles on it and before I put the 35" tires and level kit on it a little over a year ago, I was getting a combined MPG of about 17.5, according to the truck itself anyway. The advertised MPG is 17, so I was still getting advertised MPGs after 90k miles and 7 yrs. Now with the 35s and level kit I get a little over 15 MPGs, but I needed to get the pumpkin a little higher off the ground, so I compromised MPGs for clearance with the larger tires.

The charging network will likely be exponentially larger over the next 5-10 years well before a loss of range starts to become a factor. I believe Tesla alone plans a 2x-3x larger network in just the next 2 years.

I have no doubts, but right now the map showing Tesla's planned future locations does not include anything new in the location I'd need them to add to. Is there a way to suggest a location build or can I finance a Tesla supercharger myself and collect something from it (i.e. like a franchise)?

 

[Luke42]

I don't think it will be useless, I just don't think it will be capable of 500 miles. Whether or not it's too early in the EV development or not is what I'm trying to figure out. When I first brought up concerns, I was told I shouldn't be concerned, because there are lots more chargers then I'm aware of and the batteries are far better then their warranties. So the discussion continues.

My concerns are not range with towing. They are range in cold weather camping in the mountains where mud, slush, snow covered unpaved roads are the norm when hunting and the closest charger is well out of the way and in the wrong direction. Putting in a couple hundred miles a week is common. In crap conditions that 500 miles of range might be 300 and I need something left in the "tank" to get me back to a charger. I use one vehicle for all things; daily commuter, road tripper, grocery getter, camping/hunting, etc.

But you are right in that the tech/infrastructure might not be ready yet to support this without some compromise.
That's what I'm trying to figure out; whether that means potentially requiring a new battery, or something else.

You should wait to buy a CT until user reports start coming from real owners.

You can than assess whether it meets your needs.

This forum will be a great way to gather these reports.

Not everyone needs to be an early adopter. Second-mover advantage is a thing.

 

[rr6013]

I don't know if we are coming to the same conclusion from different approaches or if we are speaking differently. Technologically can mean on colloquial terms the actual product. Technology in the literal sense in the art, skill, or way of thinking. Tesla is a paradigm shift away in culture and thinking. The result is a Tesla vehicle. About half the people I know like the car for cars sake, the other half are not just buying BEV but buying Tesla.

There's always the Lyft to the Uber, the MacOS to the Windows. Sometimes, it's fast follow and nothing to do with culture, IP, or paradigm shifts, just good copying (or stealing). Sandy Munro suggests BYD father ahead than most people think our willing to acknowledge. Copying tech i.e. real world manifestations like sales models, battery manufacturing and software is easier than copying a way of thinking.

For a second, that leaves...gulp... Rivian....?

Maybe you are already discounting them by negging Bezoa vis a vis Space X comments. They don't have a dealership network to support, they've been at it for years, they have cash infusion, they have "anchor tenants" in Amazon, and they aren't making mistakes. Zappos was able to succeed in spite of Bezos. Whole Foods hasn't cratered. Washington Post is successful in the digital newspaper market. There's a clear path forward if they don't muck it up.

Thoughts?

One-on-one level Elon Musk‘s wealth of startup success and how not to startup Tesla are an incomparable challenge to the Rivian’s, Fisker’s and RImac’s of the world even with Matt’s EV motorheaded speed focus and Porcshe waging its Bugatti marque on Matt Rimac talent. Matt Rimac is the closest EV person to challenge Tesla yet not even a close second on business acumen.

On the enterprise level VW and TOY have the treasury, the plant and in-situ workforce but for cultural reasons management and leadership decisions have a longer corporate view. I can’t think of a second Chinese EV competitor. All EV in China appear to be scrambling for survival of the fittest in a state sanctioned industry consolidation.

On the technology level hardware alone is not enough. Tesla have the Apple-thing going integrating hardware into a software-defined platform. OEM‘s bring a car platform to the transition that software is tasked integrating EV into which is a start. But Tesla are so much farther down the road with software that its computer is the car.

On the paradigm level Tesla isn’t a car company. Products it makes are the most powerful networked computer platforms civilians can own, Tesla just transitioned to a robotics and automation company that produces autonomous machines. The products sell themselves.

Tesla are leveraging its energy as the fourth leg of its empire owning EV’s by name worldwide, networking globally Tesla are in-process of automating its footprint then renting it back to customers robotically.

That’s order of magnitude beyond the first paradigm no one has grokked yet. SO who’s second?

 

[SpaceYooper]

You should wait to buy a CT until user reports start coming from real owners.

You can than assess whether it meets your needs.

This forum will be a great way to gather these reports.

Not everyone needs to be an early adopter. Second-mover advantage is a thing.

That was poorly stated by me. I meant I don't think it will be capable of 500 miles at around the 7-8 year mark. When it's new, I'm sure it will.

 

[Ogre]

The implicit assumption is that an ICE vehicle will perform as new after 10 years which is nonsense. This is why the only way to win this game is to not engage.

 

[SpaceYooper]

The implicit assumption is that an ICE vehicle will perform as new after 10 years which is nonsense. This is why the only way to win this game is to not engage.

It's not nonsense. For starters the infrastructure for ICE reduces range concerns. Additionally, MPGs and range for an ICE vehicle don't seem to be impacted over time as much as EVs. There are always exceptions, but I posted my experience over the past roughly 18 yrs with my last truck and current truck.

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