Who really wants to know what the CT final specs and features are going to be? The OEMS.

myrickma

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If you think prospective customers are eagerly waiting for final CT specs, imagine how badly the OEM competition is waiting, lol.

The OEM's are totally left in the dark at this point and unable to even plan for what they need to compete against.

I am going to predict a few of the toughest challenges the OEM's could be up against and in the order I believe is the greatest impact.

1. CHARGING SPEED. With the new cells and the dynamics of enhanced heat management and shortened electrical paths baked into them we could see a rather large speed increase in charging. I believe this could take OEM's a few years to even catch up to. Note: we could see a preview of this when the new Model Y releases as a good gauge of the impact. I see this as one of the largest values for convincing people on the fence to make the EV switch and more so for the folks that may not be all that EV savvy.

2. The obvious one is RANGE. This really boils down to the structural battery pack as a whole. At the same total energy storage values, Tesla is going to have far better weight to power ratio so the same max storage is going to propel the vehicle for a longer duration or range. Throw in a dash of Octovalve (maybe even a newer or enhanced version?) and some very low aero drag numbers and the range continues to climb.

3. PERFORMANCE. If rear wheel steering comes to fruition on every CT produced I would not be surprised if towing specs increase by a measurable amount. The CT is not going to have a incredible top speed thus the gearing is likely going to be much lower than the Plaid powertrain is in Model S. Could we see torque numbers in the 1200-1300 ft lbs range if HP is brought down to 800 or so? We also have to remember that full power from the new carbon wrapped motors has not actually been OTA released yet (as I understand it), I believe they are holding some power back while they field test further to see where they can break it at.

4. TECH. I am not even going to guess at this one. This is the easiest one to hold under wraps as its not as easy to physically glean from seeing a CT at a testing site.

5. DURABILITY. Action backs words here. If the battery life is as good as we/they think it is and along with the durability of the motors, could we see industry leading warranty on the drive train? Warranty matters as nobody wants to still be paying on a vehicle loan while also paying to repair the same vehicle.

Your thoughts?
The Question that covers the most bases is:
What is 30X Stainless Steel???????

What we know: 30X has something to do with SpaceX, and that's it.
What can we imply? That it will be extremely durable, but also quite light (in terms of SS) because rockets are all about weight.

I've mentioned this on another thread:
Stainless Steel has excellent thermal properties, in theory, this will keep your interior cooler/warmer (think a SS Rambler) thus less drain on the battery, that's more juice for range and less charging long term, thus longer battery life.
I don't know if the performance specs will improve per se, I think they will be verified as being true to the design. There actually might be a slight increase because it will be about 5% smaller overall.
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DarinCT

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SECOND?

...

Tesla technologically are a paradigm shift away from its next closest competitor. Tesla success captured mindshare of the BEV market to the point people have buy-in. They are buying Teslas. - not EV’s.

...

That leaves?
I don't know if we are coming to the same conclusion from different approaches or if we are speaking differently. Technologically can mean on colloquial terms the actual product. Technology in the literal sense in the art, skill, or way of thinking. Tesla is a paradigm shift away in culture and thinking. The result is a Tesla vehicle. About half the people I know like the car for cars sake, the other half are not just buying BEV but buying Tesla.

There's always the Lyft to the Uber, the MacOS to the Windows. Sometimes, it's fast follow and nothing to do with culture, IP, or paradigm shifts, just good copying (or stealing). Sandy Munro suggests BYD father ahead than most people think our willing to acknowledge. Copying tech i.e. real world manifestations like sales models, battery manufacturing and software is easier than copying a way of thinking.

For a second, that leaves...gulp... Rivian....?

Maybe you are already discounting them by negging Bezoa vis a vis Space X comments. They don't have a dealership network to support, they've been at it for years, they have cash infusion, they have "anchor tenants" in Amazon, and they aren't making mistakes. Zappos was able to succeed in spite of Bezos. Whole Foods hasn't cratered. Washington Post is successful in the digital newspaper market. There's a clear path forward if they don't muck it up.

Thoughts?
 

Ogre

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For a second, that leaves...gulp... Rivian....?

Maybe you are already discounting them by negging Bezoa vis a vis Space X comments. They don't have a dealership network to support, they've been at it for years, they have cash infusion, they have "anchor tenants" in Amazon, and they aren't making mistakes. Zappos was able to succeed in spite of Bezos. Whole Foods hasn't cratered. Washington Post is successful in the digital newspaper market. There's a clear path forward if they don't muck it up.

Thoughts?
Rivian certainly has the money and some long term contracts with Amazon to help keep them afloat. That said, I haven’t seen or heard a ton from them that makes me think they have a strategic advantage over anyone. They clearly aren’t great at manufacturing, don’t have any battery technology which is really impressive either.

IMO the big yin to Tesla’s yang is going to be Chinese. Geely or one of the other Chinese companies, perhaps several. Hyundai Kia are also contenders.
 

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We might be talking about two different things or I'm missing your point.
You seem to be saying I'm getting more value out of the purchase because it's higher quality and is offering more capability for $69k then a $55k ICE truck. That is not my argument.

I get that the manufacturing process from Tesla is great, innovative, and better then the big ICE company processes. Tesla may very well provide more value dollar for dollar then an ICE truck. That's not what I'm arguing.

I'm arguing that after paying more up front for the CT3 then what I would pay for an ICE truck and then determine what I actually save after 10 or 15 years of not paying for as much maintenance, and paying less for "fuel" it may not actually be a financial plus in my pocket, IF I'm not still getting the 500 miles of range and it requires a new battery and associated costs. Right now we don't even know if replacing a structural batter is even an option.

It is 100% fair to say that I'm not considering the resale value of both trucks at that 10-15 yr point.
Maybe after resale the CT does come out significantly on top. But we won't know that for quite a while. I have faith the CT will hold up to the test of time and it's suspension system will be as durable if not more durable then the competition, but if it doesn't or it's not...? Really looking forward to the CT showing up in Baja some day!
We are talking two different things. I guess I didn't read your discussion fully. I thought you guys were talking about cost savings of manufacturers, not value/savings for the consumers.

My bad.
 

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I don't believe we'll see much if any of a jump in charging speed. The 4680s will have to fight their larger size vs the ease of cooling them.
I don’t agree. The traditional battery’s tab is a bottleneck, causing a hotspot. The tabless design allows for greater ramp-up due to the distributed heat.

Also, the 4680 will have a lower internal resistance, thus generating less waste heat overall.

Finally, the dry electrode will have different operating characteristics and temperature ranges, although no one yet has that data.
 


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GnarlyDudeLive

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I don’t agree. The traditional battery’s tab is a bottleneck, causing a hotspot. The tabless design allows for greater ramp-up due to the distributed heat.

Also, the 4680 will have a lower internal resistance, thus generating less waste heat overall.

Finally, the dry electrode will have different operating characteristics and temperature ranges, although no one yet has that data.
A reduction in charging heat being generated should also mean more efficiency in the charging process. Basically meaning more the the electricity you are paying for ends up actually charging the battery and less of it being consumed as heat waste. This is something I rarely see discussed. It may not amount to a huge cost savings but it should still be a measurable amount none the less.
 

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I don’t agree. The traditional battery’s tab is a bottleneck, causing a hotspot. The tabless design allows for greater ramp-up due to the distributed heat.
...And that makes up for the physically larger size of the cells. Heat will be harder to remove because of the size.

They chose the size because it's the sweet spot to perform as well as their prior, smaller batteries.

-Crissa
 

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I've read it and it brings up some questions like; What is the life they are referring to; Is the life of a vehicle 5, 10, 15 years, etc? And the article seems to contradict itself with some of its statements.

I'll start with this quote.
"Consumers who purchase an electric car can expect to save an average of $4,600 in repair and maintenance costs over the life of the vehicle compared with a gasoline-powered car, CR’s study shows."

Given this article is talking about cars and not trucks, so I would expect the maintenance overall to cost less and the savings in turn to be less. But If I'm only saving $4600 over the life of the vehicle in repairs, that's even less than what I said and they are talking about the lifetime of the vehicle. I'm only talking about 10 years and I argued I might save $6400 and then threw in another $5k of saving for maintenance I couldn't even account for, so I think I was being more than fair.

Then the article goes on to say;
"Jill Trotta, vice president of marketing and sales at RepairPal, says that by the time a vehicle reaches its fifth year—which is often when expensive items like tires wear out—EVs cost about $900 a year to repair and maintain, whereas comparable gasoline-powered cars cost about $1,200."

It doesn't say how much is saved in the first 5 years...but if this article is right and if my math is right, that only adds up to $300 saving per year after the 5th year (1200-900=300). So that saves me $1500 (300x5) from years 5-10. Even if I add up the lifetime of saving mentioned in the article and assume that is all saved in the first 5 years then add in the saving from the second 5 years, that only adds up to $6100 in maintenance saved in 10 years. Again, I gave more benefit than this.

Then it says;
"Currently, replacing a battery pack costs $5,500, on average, says RepairPal’s Trotta, or roughly the same as an engine replacement in a midrange gasoline vehicle."

"The DOE is working with the auto industry to improve battery chemistry to more widespread public fast-charging infrastructure, and also to bring down the cost of batteries to less than $100 per kilowatt-hour."


These 2 comments seem contradictory to me. How is the cost to replace a battery only $5,500 if the current cost of a battery is more than $100/kWh? That only makes sense if the avg battery size is 55kWh or smaller. If that's true, that's fine, but I would have assumed most EV batteries were bigger than that. Also if that is true, and the CT3 or now CTQ battery pack is 200kWh - 250kWh, it's going to be about $20k - $25k to replace. There is no mention if the cost of the battery replacement includes the labor, but I will assume it does.

So I'm back to using my more fair numbers...and by more fair, I'm stating numbers that counter to my own argument when compared to this article and I'll save even more than the article is saying by owning an EV, and if I have to replace the pack, I'll be in the hole several thousand dollars.
 
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GnarlyDudeLive

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Your battery pack will likely outlive the truck. With zero numbers to prove it, the vehicle is more like to die via an accident (totaled by insurances standards) before the battery craps out if as expected the pack will last 1 million miles. I look at it like this, at 1 million miles that is about 5x the life expectancy of the average vehicle and with the average vehicle being likely to die 20% of the time due to a collision of some sort: 5x20% = 100%. While not perfectly accurate its still within reason your vehicle body/frame/shell could very well die out before the battery does.

The general/public consensus is that life span of the battery is reached when it can no longer hold 75-80% of its original capacity. At that point, you park it in your yard like a true truck owning high-tech redneck such as myself and hook it up to your house as a backup battery. If you want to be fancy, you build a shed around it to make it look purty and such. At 75-80% capacity I believe it is still cheaper than dedicated battery pack(s) of equivalent size offered used in its repurposed life.

Now CT3/4 at 75%-80% may even be a premature death considering the CT1 and CT2 would still have less range....
 
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Crissa

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I've read it and it brings up some questions like; What is the life they are referring to; Is the life of a vehicle 5, 10, 15 years, etc? pack, I'll be in the hole several thousand dollars.
Consumer Reports said:
For this report, ‘vehicle lifetime’ was defined as 200,000 miles.
  • BEV (Battery-Electric Vehicle): $0.03/mile
  • PHEV (Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle): $0.03/mile
  • ICE (Internal Combustion Engine): $0.06/mile
I don't see the contradiction you think you're seeing. Trucks generally cost more. And their estimate for an ICE and a PHEV were lower than in other reports I've read. That's lower than my car's cost, but that might be local labor costs skewing things.

-Crissa
 

HaulingAss

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We are talking two different things. I guess I didn't read your discussion fully. I thought you guys were talking about cost savings of manufacturers, not value/savings for the consumers.

My bad.
Cost savings for the manufacturer allows them to deliver better value to the consumer. In these early days of EV's you have legacy auto selling them at a loss. That's why they keep the volumes low and can't make them in high volumes without losing too much money to make it realistic. And without high volumes they offer no real competition. Tesla's cars are already highly profitable which means they have a lot of room to lower prices if it's ever necessary to actually compete against a competitor. But the reality of the situation is, Tesla has no competitors. Sure, Rivian and legacy auto will sell some EV's, even some EV trucks, but not enough to force Tesla to lower their prices. So, if the sales by competitors are not impacting Tesla's ability to sell, they are not real competition.
 

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@Crissa
Consumer Reports said:
For this report, ‘vehicle lifetime’ was defined as 200,000 miles.
  • BEV (Battery-Electric Vehicle): $0.03/mile
  • PHEV (Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle): $0.03/mile
  • ICE (Internal Combustion Engine): $0.06/mile

I was going to ask where you got this quote from but I see it's from a different source document than the article linked. (Linked where it says "CR's study shows" in the article...or right here; https://advocacy.consumerreports.or...powered-vehicle-owners-finds-new-cr-analysis/)

I'll agree with this CR article that maintenance costs will be cut by 50% for the life of the vehicle.
Does that make it fair to say maintenance costs will be cut by 50% annually from the purchase date through the warranty period?

Your mechanic says F150 costs at $770/annually (shows a 12 yr chart)
Your mechanic says Silverado 1500 costs at $646/annually (shows a 12 yr chart)
Edmonds puts F150 costs at $1193/annually (for the first 5 years)
Edmonds puts Silverado 1500 costs at $875/annually (for the first 5 years)
Repair Pal says F150 costs at $788/annually (lifetime, but doesn't define lifetime)
Repair Pal says Silverado 1500 costs at $714/annually (lifetime, but doesn't define lifetime)
Car Edge puts F150annual costs at $1025/annually (for the first 10 years)
Car Edge puts Silverado 1500 costs at $1000/annually (for the first 10 years)
Links:
https://www.yourmechanic.com/estimates/ford/f-150
https://www.yourmechanic.com/estimates/chevrolet/silverado-1500
https://www.edmunds.com/ford/f-150/2020/cost-to-own/
https://www.edmunds.com/chevrolet/silverado-1500/2020/cost-to-own/
Ford F-150 Repair: Service and Maintenance Cost (repairpal.com)
https://repairpal.com/reliability/chevrolet/silverado-1500
Ford F-150 Maintenance Schedule and Costs (caredge.com)
Chevrolet Silverado 1500 Maintenance Schedule and Costs (caredge.com)

That averages out to $877/annually...with a 50% savings that would be $439/annually.
Those annual savings over an assumed 10 year warranty period of the CT come out to $4390.

If I insert that number into my corrected argument then here's where we are at.

I should be able to cut "fuel" cost with my CT by 2/3 so I will have saved ~$29k in gas. But I paid a premium upfront to own the CT3 of about $15k, so gas savings minus the premium and I'm up $14k + $4390 (I originally said $6,400 in maintenance cost.) So I'm up ~$18,400 after 10 years.
(I took out the extra $5k in ICE maintenance I previously added in because none of these sites nor the CR articles support that extra ICE costs).

How much is that new battery going to cost me if I'm only getting 80% of the advertised range out of a charge in perfect conditions? My guess is still that battery is more than $20k 10 years from now. So I'm still nowhere near the massive savings some have eluded to.

I know someone might argue again that there is no upfront premium so I should remove that $15k from my argument.

KBB says the Fair Market price of a 21' F150 Crew Cab King Ranch is $56,388
https://www.kbb.com/ford/f150-supercrew-cab/2021/king-ranch/
KBB says the Fair Market price of a 21' 1500 Silverado Crew Cab King Ranch is $57,070
New 2021 Chevy Silverado 1500 Crew Cab High Country Prices | Kelley Blue Book (kbb.com)

So if I say the premium is only $13k, there's still no economic benefit in my pocket if I want the battery replaced because it isn't getting me 500 miles on a charge anymore.

I'll again concede that I'm not taking into account resale values at 10 years and the potential advantage Tesla might have there.

Is everything else here a fair argument for those of us the need 500 miles of range, not just the first year but all the years we own it.
 
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GnarlyDudeLive

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@Crissa
Consumer Reports said:
For this report, ‘vehicle lifetime’ was defined as 200,000 miles.
  • BEV (Battery-Electric Vehicle): $0.03/mile
  • PHEV (Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle): $0.03/mile
  • ICE (Internal Combustion Engine): $0.06/mile

I was going to ask where you got this quote from but I see it's from a different source document than the article linked. (Linked where it says "CR's study shows" in the article...or right here; https://advocacy.consumerreports.or...powered-vehicle-owners-finds-new-cr-analysis/)

I'll agree with this CR article that maintenance costs will be cut by 50% for the life of the vehicle.
Does that make it fair to say maintenance costs will be cut by 50% annually from the purchase date through the warranty period?

Your mechanic says F150 costs at $770/annually (shows a 12 yr chart)
Your mechanic says Silverado 1500 costs at $646/annually (shows a 12 yr chart)
Edmonds puts F150 costs at $1193/annually (for the first 5 years)
Edmonds puts Silverado 1500 costs at $875/annually (for the first 5 years)
Repair Pal says F150 costs at $788/annually (lifetime, but doesn't define lifetime)
Repair Pal says Silverado 1500 costs at $714/annually (lifetime, but doesn't define lifetime)
Car Edge puts F150annual costs at $1025/annually (for the first 10 years)
Car Edge puts Silverado 1500 costs at $1000/annually (for the first 10 years)
Links:
https://www.yourmechanic.com/estimates/ford/f-150
https://www.yourmechanic.com/estimates/chevrolet/silverado-1500
https://www.edmunds.com/ford/f-150/2020/cost-to-own/
https://www.edmunds.com/chevrolet/silverado-1500/2020/cost-to-own/
Ford F-150 Repair: Service and Maintenance Cost (repairpal.com)
https://repairpal.com/reliability/chevrolet/silverado-1500
Ford F-150 Maintenance Schedule and Costs (caredge.com)
Chevrolet Silverado 1500 Maintenance Schedule and Costs (caredge.com)

That averages out to $877/annually...with a 50% savings that would be $439/annually.
Those annual savings over an assumed 10 year warranty period of the CT come out to $4390.

If I insert that number into my corrected argument then here's where we are at.

I should be able to cut "fuel" cost with my CT by 2/3 so I will have saved ~$29k in gas. But I paid a premium upfront to own the CT3 of about $15k, so gas savings minus the premium and I'm up $14k + $4390 (I originally said $6,400 in maintenance cost.) So I'm up ~$18,400 after 10 years.
(I took out the extra $5k in ICE maintenance I previously added in because none of these sites nor the CR articles support that extra ICE costs).

How much is that new battery going to cost me if I'm only getting 80% of the advertised range out of a charge in perfect conditions? My guess is still that battery is more than $20k 10 years from now. So I'm still nowhere near the massive savings some have eluded to.

I know someone might argue again that there is no upfront premium so I should remove that $15k from my argument.

KBB says the Fair Market price of a 21' F150 Crew Cab King Ranch is $56,388
https://www.kbb.com/ford/f150-supercrew-cab/2021/king-ranch/
KBB says the Fair Market price of a 21' 1500 Silverado Crew Cab King Ranch is $57,070
New 2021 Chevy Silverado 1500 Crew Cab High Country Prices | Kelley Blue Book (kbb.com)

So if I say the premium is only $13k, there's still no economic benefit in my pocket if I want the battery replaced because it isn't getting me 500 miles on a charge anymore.

I'll again concede that I'm not taking into account resale values at 10 years and the potential advantage Tesla might have there.

Is everything else here a fair argument for those of us the need 500 miles of range, not just the first year but all the years we own it.
Here is just an example what a used S85 Tesla battery w/ 60k miles on it is valued at: $17k https://www.ebay.com/itm/143993046942?hash=item2186a7879e:g:vy4AAOSwCppel2A0

That "dead" CT3 battery would have some real $ value to it.

Simply search on what the Tesla batteries sell for (sold for not listed price).
 

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My purpose of buying an EV truck is to save money over the life of the truck. Buying a replacement battery (if possible) would defeat my purpose if all I did was break even.

I also think the estimation for how much money is spent on ICE vehicle maintenance is generally inflated. I've owned 5 vehicles in my life (not including my wife's cars) 1 Cherokee, 2 x Ford Rangers, 1 Ford F250 and my current F150. I've needed 1 clutch replaced (Cherokee) and 1 radiator replaced (F250) but that was due to an accident opposed to any differed maintenance. Oh and I needed a new turbo for my F150. I've never had a major engine problem. All vehicles to include my current F150 were parked outside always. All vehicles had/have over 150k miles on them when sold. the F250 had about 270k on it.

$80 for an oil change x 3 changes a year = $240/yr x 10 yrs = $2,400. Call it $500 for brakes about every 30k miles. That's about 5 brake changes in 10 years = $2,500. Transmission flush, belt changes,...maybe another $1,000 over 10 years. We're at $6400 total. Gas is $130 per tank x 2 tanks per month = $3,120/yr and ~$32k after 10 years. For the sake of the argument I'll assume gas prices increase annually by 5% yr over yr. In 10 years gas would be about $6.20/gal (based $4/gal today in CO) and I would have spent about $44k in gas. I should be able to cut "fuel" cost with my CT by 2/3 so I will have saved ~$29k in gas. But I paid a premium up front to own the CT3 of about $15k, so gas savings minus the premium and I'm up $14k + $6,400 in maintenance cost. So I'm up $20,400 after 10 years...I'll add in another $5k in God knows what savings so now I'm at $25,400 saved. How much is that new battery going to cost me if I'm only getting 80% of the advertised range (400 miles) out of a charge in perfect conditions? My guess is that battery is more then $20k; so at best I break even only when making all arguments in favor of the CT.

This does not account for any extra costs to insure the CT vs a comparable ICE 1/2 ton. I've seen arguments both ways. Some say it's more, some have said their insurance lowered. Lets call it a wash. It also doesn't account for the extra tire costs I keep hearing EV owners talk about.

What's funny is that the same people that will say I need to be spending more on preventive maintenance on my ICE truck (even though history tells me I haven't had to) are the same ones that will argue the CT doesn't need a spare tire because they've never needed one, but I will argue till I'm blue in the face that full size spare should be standard in all trucks. To each their own.

Edited 12/4 because I realized my gas math was wrong. Instead of being in the hole, it's now basically a wash if I need a new battery...but again, there's $5k in extra ICE maintenance in there to tilt the scales.
Even if its a wash. Is it a better truck? More enjoyable to drive? How about the reduction in emissions and carbon footprint? Also, there is a reasonable chance the battery pack will be considerably cheaper by the time you replace it, although we don’t know by how much.
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