Who really wants to know what the CT final specs and features are going to be? The OEMS.

[Ogre]

It's not nonsense. For starters the infrastructure for ICE reduces range concerns. Additionally, MPGs and range for an ICE vehicle don't seem to be impacted over time as much as EVs. There are always exceptions, but I posted my experience over the past roughly 18 yrs with my last truck and current truck.

Yes it’s utter nonsense.

ICE vehicles get less and less reliable over time. Their fuel economy drops, and often as a bonus crap leaks out of them on your driveway.

In 10 years EV infrastructure will likely be better than ICE because most new cars will be EVs.

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[rr6013]

It's not nonsense. For starters the infrastructure for ICE reduces range concerns. Additionally, MPGs and range for an ICE vehicle don't seem to be impacted over time as much as EVs. There are always exceptions, but I posted my experience over the past roughly 18 yrs with my last truck and current truck.

Cybertruck straddles both sides of this discussion. Hence, both sides have a point.

Yes battery degradation is a known known - fact. Additionally OTA updates only last as long as the current Tesla chip is supported. Incredible will be follow-on upgrades expanding utility and funtionality of Cybertruck. Cybertruck is a “Classic”. Purists will not want to buy a new Tesla Info/Nav computer after it is no longer supported. FSD…ditto.

I have WWII Navy shipyard war surplus welders, motors and tools still running better than any sold today. It’s possible Cybertruck were it built to last million miles, could. Few are those who would invest the maintenance, replacement parts and care that consumables require over a million miles. Tesla engineers Cybertruck simply, many will be “million milers” that look and drive as-new.

The twist; Tesla variants that follow Cybertruck Classic will evoke mind numbing jealousy as great as the difference between 1953 ½ Corvette and the C8 Corvette. Definitely, Cybertruck will last as long in the marque. Definitive Classics will prove variant’s enduring success as Tesla evolve the platform, the purpose and its mission as one emblematic whole.

That’s the perpetual hook Tesla will mine for all its worth. There may be a 1963 split window ‘vette variant of CT that supercedes all others - collectively. But standstill on the Cybertruck as FORD did Bronco… never.

 

[larryboy31]

It's not nonsense. For starters the infrastructure for ICE reduces range concerns. Additionally, MPGs and range for an ICE vehicle don't seem to be impacted over time as much as EVs. There are always exceptions, but I posted my experience over the past roughly 18 yrs with my last truck and current truck.

As the number of charging stations grows there will come a time when the number of fossil fuel stations starts to shrink. It looks as though there will be few ICE vehicles produced after 2035 or so and when people have a BEV and an ICE in their garage they will drive the BEV more. About the time that your BEV battery starts to show its age there might be a lot fewer gas stations .

 

[DarinCT]

SO who’s second?

I just told you who I thought. If you want to dismiss my answer, clear all the options off the table, not answer the question, then ask me again, I'm not sure what to say.

 

[bill.french]

And I think Aero will come out ahead of where calculations found it.

Our assessments seem to confirm this.

 

[bill.french]

This is the easiest one to hold under wraps as its not as easy to physically glean from seeing a CT at a testing site.

Your points are very good and comprehensive. As an OEM, our current product is designed for Cybertruck (and only Cybertruck) but luckily, it has few dependencies. This doesn't mean the dependencies it does have are trivial. The exact size of the bed and under-trunk are key considerations for our manufacturing but with solid engineering and dynamic design modelling, we're in a good place until the surprises are revealed.

 

[bill.french]

If it’s A+ in every other way, but not great as a work truck, it’s appeal will be limited.

We have thousands of customers who are not buying Cybertruck for the reasons trucks are typically purchased. I think Tesla has accurately predicted the post SUV/"truck" market - it's a lifestyle product that orbits the traditional truck market.

 

[SpaceYooper]

Yes it’s utter nonsense.

ICE vehicles get less and less reliable over time. Their fuel economy drops, and often as a bonus crap leaks out of them on your driveway.

In 10 years EV infrastructure will likely be better than ICE because most new cars will be EVs.

Not nonsense. EVs also become less reliable over time. Did you look at the provided links to to data regarding maintenance costs and MPGs.

I do appreciate your comments though because it makes me research a little more.

There are about 116k gas stations in the US. That is up about 4k gas stations from last year although overall the trend is falling. I couldn't find anything that showed the number of pumps per station but I did come across an article that used 8 pumps per station as an average. So that's about 925k pumps.

From 1994 - 2004 we went from 200k gas stations to about 170k (-30k gas stations). From 2004 to now we're down another 55k gas stations. So in the last ~25 years we lost 43% of our gas stations. For the most part this has been attributed to reduced profit margin on gas and increased fuel economy.

In contrast there are about 100k total public EV outlets. Though they are not dispersed equally across the US. About 1/3 of them are in California. To my direct and selfish concern there is only 1 38 miles from where I hunt and in the wrong direction (It's in an area I can't hunt and completely out of the way of any direction I typically drive).

No doubt the trend of losing gas stations will increase rapidly with EVs taking ahold (especially trucks). I read one article claiming the number of gas stations could be reduced by 1/2 in the next decade. If that were to hold true the US would have about 60k gas stations and about 480k pumps. The public EV chargers would have to gain over 400% from today to match that. I don't think that's unrealistic, but it is going to take a massive effort. 10 years from now I do not think the the number of chargers will out number the pumps (nor do they have to to be on equal or even better footing) but the 10:1 pump:charger ratio will certainly change. I will go on record saying gas pumps will still out number public chargers significantly....3:1. By 2031 my guess is that we'll lose another 35k gas stations, putting us around 80k stations and 640k pumps. In-turn I'll guess there will be 200k individual chargers. I think that would be a remarkable build up for EV infrastructure.

I don't think the build out of EV chargers will ever equal that of gas stations at their peak because there is no requirement to do so when most charging is done at home. The build out just has to be accommodating to long haul trucking, trailering, road tripping and strategically placed in tourist towns and remote locations.

 

[Throwcomputer]

Not nonsense. EVs also become less reliable over time. Did you look at the provided links to to data regarding maintenance costs and MPGs.

I do appreciate your comments though because it makes me research a little more.

There are about 116k gas stations in the US. That is up about 4k gas stations from last year although overall the trend is falling. I couldn't find anything that showed the number of pumps per station but I did come across an article that used 8 pumps per station as an average. So that's about 925k pumps.

From 1994 - 2004 we went from 200k gas stations to about 170k (-30k gas stations). From 2004 to now we're down another 55k gas stations. So in the last ~25 years we lost 43% of our gas stations. For the most part this has been attributed to reduced profit margin on gas and increased fuel economy.

In contrast there are about 100k total public EV outlets. Though they are not dispersed equally across the US. About 1/3 of them are in California. To my direct and selfish concern there is only 1 38 miles from where I hunt and in the wrong direction (It's in an area I can't hunt and completely out of the way of any direction I typically drive).

No doubt the trend of losing gas stations will increase rapidly with EVs taking ahold (especially trucks). I read one article claiming the number of gas stations could be reduced by 1/2 in the next decade. If that were to hold true the US would have about 60k gas stations and about 480k pumps. The public EV chargers would have to gain over 400% from today to match that. I don't think that's unrealistic, but it is going to take a massive effort. 10 years from now I do not think the the number of chargers will out number the pumps (nor do they have to to be on equal or even better footing) but the 10:1 pump:charger ratio will certainly change. I will go on record saying gas pumps will still out number public chargers significantly....3:1. By 2031 my guess is that we'll lose another 35k gas stations, putting us around 80k stations and 640k pumps. In-turn I'll guess there will be 200k individual chargers. I think that would be a remarkable build up for EV infrastructure.

I don't think the build out of EV chargers will ever equal that of gas stations at their peak because there is no requirement to do so when most charging is done at home. The build out just has to be accommodating to long haul trucking, trailering, road tripping and strategically placed in tourist towns and remote locations.

Interesting topic and good amount of detail. I'd just like to contribute that if you compare the trend in loss of gas pumps to the trend in gain in ev chargers over the last 10 years you will probably find an exponential curve in favor of ev chargers more than making up for lost gas pumps in regards to numbers of ev on the road. from a laymans perspective (not owning an ev yet, but driving all over the east coast quite a bit) it would appear that ev charging stations are popping up at a rate more than equal to keeping up with "demand". This trend will get better over the next 10 years as electric vehicles are finally becoming mainstream.

This is with no further scientific research other than what could be call the "butt dyno" in vespa tuning land. I see it with my eyes. Just since the pandemic started, I have seen a noticeable increased occurence of teslas on the road. They are everywhere now compared to 3-4 years ago when only my most well off high tech friends had them. And practically every rest stop or gas station I use on 95 has super chargers.

 

[Ogre]

Not nonsense. EVs also become less reliable over time. Did you look at the provided links to to data regarding maintenance costs and MPGs.

Cars with a million miles of an ICE vehicle is extremely rare. Reliability issues hit long before that. It is so uncommon, that Toyota… a company known for reliability made a big deal of it when one hit a million miles fairly recently.

https://www.motortrend.com/features/million-mile-tundra-the-tear-down/

"To be honest, we don't really have a million-mile expectation, but it met the expectation [we did have]." It really is remarkable how well multiple items still work.

I know very few people who would buy a used car with half a million miles on it unless it was a collectible.

 

[SpaceYooper]

Cars with a million miles of an ICE vehicle is extremely rare. Reliability issues hit long before that. It is so uncommon, that Toyota… a company known for reliability made a big deal of it when one hit a million miles fairly recently.

https://www.motortrend.com/features/million-mile-tundra-the-tear-down/

I know very few people who would buy a used car with half a million miles on it unless it was a collectible.

I don't disagree. But my concern isn't with getting to 1M miles.
My concern is with losing 5-10% of the EV range sometime in the first 10 years. That concern gets alleviated as the EV infrastructure builds out.

 

[Ogre]

I don't disagree. But my concern isn't with getting to 1M miles.
My concern is with losing 5-10% of the EV range sometime in the first 10 years. That concern gets alleviated as the EV infrastructure builds out.

I’ll relieve you of that concern.

You are going to lose ~10% of original range in the first few years. Maybe as much as 15%.

You also aren’t going to get the rated range (much like you frequently don’t get rated range on a gas car).

If it ships with 500 miles range, you will likely get more like 450 miles and maybe as low as 400 miles after the first couple years. Also, you usually don’t want to use the bottom 20% of your range. That’s not much different than filling up when your low fuel light is on though.

If you are really worried about range, go to https://abetterrouteplanner.com/ and select the beta Cybertruck and put in a few common places you go or even places you would like to go. It’ll give you a good idea of Supercharger availability and range issues.

 

[SpaceYooper]

I’ll relieve you of that concern.

You are going to lose ~10% of original range in the first few years. Maybe as much as 15%.

You also aren’t going to get the rated range (much like you frequently don’t get rated range on a gas car).

If it ships with 500 miles range, you will likely get more like 450 miles and maybe as low as 400 miles after the first couple years. Also, you usually don’t want to use the bottom 20% of your range. That’s not much different than filling up when your low fuel light is on though.

If you are really worried about range, go to https://abetterrouteplanner.com/ and select the beta Cybertruck and put in a few common places you go or even places you would like to go. It’ll give you a good idea of Supercharger availability and range issues.

LOL. Using ABRP is what got me concerned with the hunting issue to begin with.
I need that buildout ASAP! Or just one more charger strategically placed!

You really think I should only expect ~320 miles of usable range on a good day even in the first couple of years?

 

[Ogre]

LOL. Using ABRP is what got me concerned with the hunting issue to begin with.
I need that buildout ASAP! Or just one more charger strategically placed!

You really think I should only expect ~320 miles of usable range on a good day even in the first couple of years?

I could use 1 or 2 new strategically placed Superchargers myself. Mostly for a few places where the out-and-back route makes a return impossible unless I have a big deviation.

Your effective range without a top off will be similar to that of a car which gets 400-450 miles on a tank of gas. Which is to say… more than most cars.

My Subaru gets ~510 miles on 18 gallons of gas… if I drive like a granny and roll into the gas station on fumes. Its trip computer refuses to show range estimates once the tank is below 60 miles. Also… my wife refuses to talk to me unless I stop to fuel up after the low fuel light turns on.

So if I’m not driving like a granny, my effective range is really more like 410 miles in the Subaru.

My Tesla Model Y shipped with 325 miles range. The gauge shows 303 after about 9 months of ownership. I get about 250 miles on a road trip going 75-78 MPH. The trip planner in the car tells me to stop any time it would dip below 20% range. If I’m bushed and my wife isn’t with me, I can push it and go the full 250 miles. Knowing that when I get home I’ll be plugged in.

If I’m going somewhere where range is a big concern, I can drive like a granny and get more range.

What is my effective range? I don’t know.

One big thing. If my destination (home/ hotel/ shopping) has a charger, I can push my range a bit and plug in there. If you live 20 miles from gas, that can be a big deal.

 

[Crissa]

My spouse does the same thing.

Unless she's handing it over to me, of course. Then the light could've been on who knows how long.

-Crissa

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