Cybertruck launch delayed again - Per AutoForecast Solutions - until Oct 2023

[Throwcomputer]

Based on the NEW information that GigaTexas is NOT going 100% 4680s for the Model Ys they are producing, and in fact they will still build Model Ys at GigaTexas with non-structural battery packs and the 2170s, I think we can safely assume the CyberTruck is "delayed" a bit more.

Elon said they want to ramp the Model Y first, and hopefully in 2023 start production on the Cy berTruck.

If Tesla can't make enough 4680s to build the Model Y at Austin, it is going to be a while before starting the Cybertruck. They will need A LOT of 4680s for the CyberTrucks.

Maybe at the end of 2023 they can start the Cybertruck production? I see no way it happens before then.

Honestly, if you lease a new vehicle today, on a 3 year lease, when that lease is up you MIGHT get your CyberTruck, but not before.

You are imagining this new information that Giga Texas is "NOT" going 100% 4680s for the Model Y.

As mentioned elsewhere.. on the Earnings call.. all that was said about 2170 was two things:

1. Berlin is 2170 non-structural packs for now

2. Tesla has a risk mitigation "PLAN" for using 2170 non-structural battery pack IF supply issues become a problem in 2023-2024. PLAN is a concept or backup plan for insurance purposes.. it is not actionable unless there is a supply problem in the future are encountered.

Here is exactly what was said on the earnings call regarding it:

Moderator:
All right. And maybe the last question from investors is what is the current run rate of 4680 self production at Fremont and at Giga Texas? What do you expect run rates of 4680 to be in Fremont, or Giga Texas, or Berlin at the end of the year?

Elon:
Well, Berlin is using the 2170 nonstructural pack. So if they're not concerned by 4680, they will transition to 4680, hopefully later this year. But current billing production is require that we also have just as a risk mitigation, 2170 non-structural pack capability and at here at Giga Texas as well. But yeah, if things do plan, we will be in volume production with 4680 and sometimes have some towards the end of the third quarter. And certainly in the fourth quarter.

Zach Kirkhorn:
And the other thing I would add is like with the China COVID shutdown and the semiconductor bottlenecks we had through Q4 and a little bit in Q1, we have sizable cell inventory at the moment and excess cells to support the 2022 volume targets you described. So that gives us the ability to be pretty deliberate in the 4680 ramp, where we can maximize the learning step by step, take engineering downtime to upgrade key pieces of equipment, to modify the structural pack design, to improve reliability all while achieving what you just said.

Elon:
Yeah, 4680 output is not a risk to achieving one and a half million vehicles produced this year. But, it would become a risk next year if we do not solve volume production, by early 2023, but we're highly confident of doing so.

And here he is talking about how the Cybertruck is on track for ramping up to volume production in 2023. Vastly different statement than "Hopefully start in 2023":

Elon:
Let's see. We're also working on a new vehicle that I alluded to at the Giga Texas opening, which is a dedicated Robotaxi, that's highly optimized for autonomy, meaning it would not have steering wheel or pedals. And there are a number of other innovations around it that I think are quite exciting, but it's fundamentally optimized. It's trying to achieve the lowest fully considered cost per mile, cost per kilometer, accounting everything. And so it's I think going to be a very powerful product. Where we aspire to reach volume production of that in 2024. So I think that really will be a massive driver of Tesla's growth.

Elon:
And we remain on track to reach volume production of the Cybertruck next year. Let's see. So basically once again, I'd like to thank the Tesla employees for their hard work, but also I'd like to thank our suppliers who have really gone the extra mile. We have an amazing supplier group. And I say heartfelt thanks to the suppliers that have really worked day and night to ensure that Tesla is able to keep the factories running.

And we're really at the early stage of our journey. We only crossed 1 million units in the past 12 months recently. And we aspire to head to 20 million units a year. So we're basically 5% along the way towards our goal. But we are growing very rapidly year over year. And remain confident of exceeding 50% annual growth for the foreseeable future for basically several of the next years. So yeah.

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[Crissa]

So we can add:

• 4680 is not currently a constraint on production at GigaTexas.

Which pretty much blows this argument out of the water that it's delaying the Cybertruck further. But the future is always uncertain.

-Crissa

 

[charliemagpie]

I take it that constraint is normal.

Only from the perspective that Tesla goes full throttle, car and energy divisions can potentially grow faster than supplies.

It will be the story till 2030.

 

[Tinker71]

So we can add:

• 4680 is not currently a constraint on production at GigaTexas.

Which pretty much blows this argument out of the water that it's delaying the Cybertruck further. But the future is always uncertain.

-Crissa

Batteries might not be a physical constraint as much as an opportunity cost. If the batteries could go in a 30% margin vehicle vs a 20% margin CT. Tesla will choose the 30%. The CT is currently priced too cheap for it's own good. I suspect Tesla is under pressure to produce the CT even at smaller margins, but I doubt they will truly ramp up until demand for other models with higher margins are satiated to the point that prices actually drop or battery supply at x point on the cost curve for acceptable margins.

I also suspect Tesla won't ramp up 4680 production to accommodate the CT and Semi until the cathode plant is in operation and some of the other improvements are integrated into the battery. I bet they have already sourced the raw materials for this ramp.

 

[Ogre]

Batteries might not be a physical constraint as much as an opportunity cost. If the batteries could go in a 30% margin vehicle vs a 20% margin CT. Tesla will choose the 30%. The CT is currently priced too cheap for it's own good. I suspect Tesla is under pressure to produce the CT even at smaller margins, but I doubt they will truly ramp up until demand for other models with higher margins are satiated to the point that prices actually drop or battery supply at x point on the cost curve for acceptable margins.

I also suspect Tesla won't ramp up 4680 production to accommodate the CT and Semi until the cathode plant is in operation and some of the other improvements are integrated into the battery. I bet they have already sourced the raw materials for this ramp.

Tesla is going fully ramp up Cybertruck production as quickly as they possibly can.

A production line running at half capacity doubles the operating expenses each vehicle must bear. That is a huge impact on profitability. They are going to max out production as quickly as they possibly can. That is one of the main ways they can drive down the cost of the Cybertruck.

Raw materials only make up about half of the vehicle cost. The rest of that is labor and equipment costs. What you are talking about is doubling many of those other costs which would not help margins, it would destroy them.

 

[Tinker71]

Tesla is going fully ramp up Cybertruck production as quickly as they possibly can.

A production line running at half capacity doubles the operating expenses each vehicle must bear. That is a huge impact on profitability. They are going to max out production as quickly as they possibly can. That is one of the main ways they can drive down the cost of the Cybertruck.

Raw materials only make up about half of the vehicle cost. The rest of that is labor and equipment costs. What you are talking about is doubling many of those other costs which would not help margins, it would destroy them.

There are all sorts of step levels to run at short of maximum planned capacity of ~5000 per week. Some of which are more efficient than others. 1 rear gigapress vs 2, 1 shift, 2 shift, one shift with OT, multiple folding machines etc. There may also be a labor shortage in Austin to contend with.

The resources will go to the highest margin vehicle to an extent. Tesla needs the CT to come out and will start with conservative production rates just to get it out and fulfill their product release promise to the market. In a resource constrained market the production mix is mostly a bean counter decision.

Where the lead time for major equipment is probably 6 - 9 months and they know NCA batteries will be constrained in 2023-24 initial production capacity may only be 1000 per week in 2023.

I think the biggest indicator will be lead times of Model Y. If they get down to 2 months or so, all hands will be looking to ramp up CT.

I also think Tesla will stop the model Y price increase really soon, the sales team will know how hard they need to push for a given sales volume. I don't think they are actually excited to lower prices as that will start an expectation that it is best to wait, so they will avoid pushing the peak (we may have already seen it)

If you are fairly deep in the list as I am you will advocate for a high margin quad or quad plaid so Tesla starts chipping away at the backlog as fast as possible. Without the margin there is no strong incentive to ramp up.

 

[Ogre]

There are all sorts of step levels to run at short of maximum planned capacity of ~5000 per week. Some of which are more efficient than others. 1 rear gigapress vs 2…

A pair of Gigapresses (front/ rear) are capable of producing 5000 vehicles/ week. This is more or less the unit of production. Anything less than that they are idling the press which is increasing the cost burden on the trucks they ship.

The resources will go to the highest margin vehicle to an extent. Tesla needs the CT to come out and will start with conservative production rates just to get it out and fulfill their product release promise to the market. In a resource constrained market the production mix is mostly a bean counter decision.

Where the lead time for major equipment is probably 6 - 9 months and they know NCA batteries will be constrained in 2023-24 initial production capacity may only be 1000 per week in 2023.

If they idle capacity, margins go down so this becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. Running their production line at 1/5 capacity is a terrible use of capital. It is far more likely Tesla would just delay launch at that point.

 

[Tinker71]

A pair of Gigapresses (front/ rear) are capable of producing 5000 vehicles/ week. This is more or less the unit of production. Anything less than that they are idling the press which is increasing the cost burden on the trucks they ship.



If they idle capacity, margins go down so this becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. Running their production line at 1/5 capacity is a terrible use of capital. It is far more likely Tesla would just delay launch at that point.

We don't know what their bottlenecks might be. If they don't build their end capacity this year nothing is wasted. As far as the building every vehicle built will reduce the building capital cost per unit so in that since there is no reason to delay.

I will agree that at full buildout without material limitations anything less than full capacity is a waste.

 

[firsttruck]

A pair of Gigapresses (front/ rear) are capable of producing 5000 vehicles/ week. This is more or less the unit of production. Anything less than that they are idling the press which is increasing the cost burden on the trucks they ship.
.....

My guess is that the pair of Gigapresses will be the most expensive part of the machinery capital cost need to make the Cybertruck.

.....
If they idle capacity, margins go down so this becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. Running their production line at 1/5 capacity is a terrible use of capital. It is far more likely Tesla would just delay launch at that point.

Yup

Also Tesla's mission is to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy.
https://www.tesla.com/about

In long term Tesla does not really need to sell cars. Once they can produce dedicated Robotaxis that will kill a big chunk of the individual private car ownership market. Eventually Tesla might make multiple sizes of dedicated Robotaxi ( small car, SUV).

The other market Tesla wants to transition is the high rate fossil fuel burning trucks.
The Robotaxi cars/SUVs will only have limited impact on this market.
In city & suburban areas, Robotaxis will be cheaper the private ownership and a couple of problems many prospective EV buyers who lived in apartments would have encountered ( where to charge, parking) will longer be problems. In rural areas the population density will make Robotaxi less cost effective, not timely available, and almost all these potential EV truck owners have plenty of room for parking with charger ( and probably easy locations to install solar or wind energy capture devices). The population in rural areas also have much higher ownership of trucks and higher everyday real-world usage for trucks (private & businesses).

I think in U.S., Tesla will make high-speed production of Cybertruck and Robotaxi cars/SUVs a priority over Model 3/Y. Even if Cybertruck profit margin is a little less than Model Y, the Cybertruck can impact (lower) oil consumption levels more.

 

[firsttruck]

....
As far as the building every vehicle built will reduce the building capital cost per unit so in that since there is no reason to delay.
....

The land and building cost are not that significant. What is more sizeable is capital cost of all the machines/robots/systems used in fabrication, repairs of equipment, expendables ( stamping machine dies, metal cutters, etc).

Tesla Austin has one $500M super deluxe high-speed automated paint shop for Model Y. If Cyberytruck was painted, the Austin plant would need another $500M super deluxe high-speed automated paint shop.

Cybertruck exoskeleton design needs many fewer stamping presses for steel parts. Also each stamping press wears out an expensive custom stamping die after X number of stamping impressions. Fewer presses means fewer expensive custom stamping dies need to be bought in the long run. Over the long run, the replacement die costs is probably higher than the stamping machine itself.

----------------------------------

$500M high-speed ultra high quality complete automated system is for full-size vehicle exterior & interior ( body in white ) with exterior getting high quality multi coat hi-gloss exterior paint. Also a huge part of the cost of paint shop is the air & water environmental protection systems ( Low Environmental Impact Paint Shop ).

The Geico Taikisha is supplying Tesla Berlin with a complete automated system.

** some interesting videos clips on this page
Geico develops fully customizable turnkey systems thanks to tailor-made layouts that simplify and optimize the design phase, meeting the needs of the individual customer.
https://geicotaikisha.com/en/paintshop-solutions/paintshop/

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A Look Inside the Paint Shop of Tesla Gigafactory in Shanghai
Date: 04/11/2021
Author: Barbara Pennati

https://www.ipcm.it/en/post/a-look-into-the-paint-shop-of-tesla-gigafactory-shanghai.aspx


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Inside Tesla’s Gigafactory Shanghai Insane Paint Shop
Nov 1, 2021
Jay in Shanghai




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Tesla Paint Team - Gigafactory Berlin-Brandenburg
Tesla's latest video shows off its Paint Team at Giga Berlin in Germany. Video credit: Tesla LinkedIn
Come join the Paint Team at Gigafactory Berlin-Brandenburg!
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/tesl...brandenburg-activity-6896925193952919552-rP5V

Feb 8, 2022
Tesla North




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[charliemagpie]

The land and building cost are not that significant. What is more sizeable is capital cost of all the machines/robots/systems used in fabrication, repairs of equipment, expendables ( stamping machine dies, metal cutters, etc).

Tesla Austin has one $500M super deluxe high-speed automated paint shop for Model Y. If Cyberytruck was painted, the Austin plant would need another $500M super deluxe high-speed automated paint shop.

Cybertruck exoskeleton design needs many fewer stamping presses for steel parts. Also each stamping press wears out an expensive custom stamping die after X number of stamping impressions. Fewer presses means fewer expensive custom stamping dies need to be bought in the long run. Over the long run, the replacement die costs is probably higher than the stamping machine itself.

----------------------------------

$500M high-speed ultra high quality complete automated system is for full-size vehicle exterior & interior ( body in white ) with exterior getting high quality multi coat hi-gloss exterior paint. Also a huge part of the cost of paint shop is the air & water environmental protection systems ( Low Environmental Impact Paint Shop ).

The Geico Taikisha is supplying Tesla Berlin with a complete automated system.

** some interesting videos clips on this page
Geico develops fully customizable turnkey systems thanks to tailor-made layouts that simplify and optimize the design phase, meeting the needs of the individual customer.
https://geicotaikisha.com/en/paintshop-solutions/paintshop/

----------

A Look Inside the Paint Shop of Tesla Gigafactory in Shanghai
Date: 04/11/2021
Author: Barbara Pennati

https://www.ipcm.it/en/post/a-look-into-the-paint-shop-of-tesla-gigafactory-shanghai.aspx


----------


Inside Tesla’s Gigafactory Shanghai Insane Paint Shop
Nov 1, 2021
Jay in Shanghai




----------


Tesla Paint Team - Gigafactory Berlin-Brandenburg
Tesla's latest video shows off its Paint Team at Giga Berlin in Germany. Video credit: Tesla LinkedIn
Come join the Paint Team at Gigafactory Berlin-Brandenburg!
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/tesl...brandenburg-activity-6896925193952919552-rP5V

Feb 8, 2022
Tesla North




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Good post

Tesla is smart, it owns this company :
........Maybe it also makes the dies for the Giga's

Riviera Tool LLC - Crunchbase Company Profile & Funding
https://www.crunchbase.com › organization › riviera-tool


The Company is a leading manufacturer of large scale, complex stamping die systems used to form sheet metal parts. Most of the stamping die systems sold by ...

 

[intimidator]

This is not entirely true.

Nor does it sync up with anything Musk has suggested about Cybertruck timing.



This is just silly. You lease a car for 3 years you are almost guaranteed to end up with time left on your lease or with no Cybertruck and still waiting. Leasing is a poor financial choice in general and in these times with huge resale values on used cars it’s even sillier. Trying to time a lease to end to coordinate with your truck delivery is pure folly.

Right now truck launch timing is still a crap shoot. Given managements current messaging and the state of things in Texas early 2023 is not out of the question.

2023 is out of the question for 98% of Tesla pre-order holders.
Elon said at one point that they hope to make up to 250,000 CyberTrucks per year. Up to. Max. (That was assuming they would have batteries for them).

If you are #300,000, and they start ramping the CyberTruck in fall of 2023, that means it will be well into 2025 before you get your CyberTruck. Sunday is May 1st. Originally they were going to be cranking out Model Ys from GigaTexas by the end of 2021. They are making some now, but they are still ramping, a little delayed. The same will happen with the CyberTruck.

 

[intimidator]

This is not what they said.

They said:

• They are not cell constrained this year.
• They have thousands of surplus cells because of the Shanghai shutdown.
• They want to ramp Austin as quickly as possible and have surplus capacity and space there.

The 2170 design is tried and true and they have factories churning them out today, why let them go to waste? And no, dumping them on the open market won't get them the same profit (and production ramp) as sticking them into cars.

-Crissa

Tesla will make a lot of Model Ys at GigaTexas....after they ramp. May 1st is this weekend....so a big chunk of 2022 is over. They should get to full speed, cranking out Model Ys by 1st quarter of 2023. As far as 4680s, they don't have enough at the moment. Period. They are working on it though. We don't know how many cells per CyberTruck of 4680s is needed, but they sure will be challenged. MY GUESS is Cybertruck full ramp will be in the fall of 2023.

 

[Tinker71]

If Germany stops gas imports from Russia. Berlin might be impacted big time. I am not sure exactly what impact this would have on the CT. Possibly more batteries available?

 

[Throwcomputer]

Tesla will make a lot of Model Ys at GigaTexas....after they ramp. May 1st is this weekend....so a big chunk of 2022 is over. They should get to full speed, cranking out Model Ys by 1st quarter of 2023. As far as 4680s, they don't have enough at the moment. Period. They are working on it though. We don't know how many cells per CyberTruck of 4680s is needed, but they sure will be challenged. MY GUESS is Cybertruck full ramp will be in the fall of 2023.

You are disagreeing.. while actually agreeing. I think everyone you just quoted was in agreement that CT will not reach high output production until fall/winter of 2023. They will be starting sometime early 2023 similarly to how Model Y has started earlier this year. I could be wrong, but at least I was not implying full CT production prior to June 2023. This is also in line with Musk's statements lately, specifically the earnings call. So.. not sure what you are disagreeing about?

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