Ford has officially raised their Lightning pricing

[JBee]

What do the options look like POST a dozen GigaFactories around your planet?

Globalization begat CHAINS of supply. MASSIVE concentrates supply chains into integrated vertical silos with feeder nodes of talent, fab and suppliers. Reminiscent of HUB & SPOKE systems.

A dozen Giga provides 12node network. At any one time, a Giga can go down, 11 remaining compensate. Any one or more feeder nodes glitch redundancy in silos can feed the glitch Giga‘s.

ONLY path to efficiency is OPEN. At full efficieny, Hub and Spoke systems wholesale volume onto the open market. MASSIVE SCALE lifts all OEM’s efficiency. OPEN cuts Tesla carry costs as Hub & Spoke is factored among all participants. Fly with Tesla is the new runway to getting OEM’s off the ground.

FORD et. al. join the hub & spoke mfg system or die trying. At the end of the cycle GigaFactories could build TOY‘s, VW’s, Rivian’s, etc… As @JBee said Tesla GigaFactories are the product — regardless what comes out.

I think, if you go back to the Mars goal thinking, that Gigas will at some point become multi-product, and not just for cars.

The aim is to produce everything for a self sustaining Mars colony. Now everything doesn't mean every brand of thing for customers to choose from, but rather the best of every "thing" that everyone needs.

For energy you need solar and batteries for storage, plus conversion and control electronics. They already do that in house. Theres less sun on Mars because of its orbit, but the weather is mostly sunny with a chance of a sand storm.

For information distribution you need Starlink, and a mobile terminal and/or mobiles with ground based relays.
A cost effective and efficient ground boring system for connecting tunnels, underground buildings for radiation protection.

You need a universal, cost effective, non-supply constrained abrasive and environment proof building material - stainless steel. For productivity and distribution you need AI and robotics to replace humans for unskilled labour, maintenance and manufacturing, plus Mars will have a serious labour shortage until the population is self sustaining. You need a higher bandwidth system and AI interface for machine augmented humans, and for Mars born people to walk back on earth.

You get the point. There is a huge web of challenges that can be addressed by simplifying and optimising "key" single processes to the max, that then make everything else easier and more effective to do.

But like was once BMW'S advertising slogan, "the path is the goal", the aim for all of this must remain reiterate, improve, reduce, and incorporate along the way of achieving a ever improving self sustaining system.

The end result will be a neural net order for a AI design assisted product using sustainable recycled materials.

GF = Idea in tool out.

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[Ogre]

For Tesla this is where the Cybertruck really shines. The CAPEX needed is significantly less than the competition and the Cybertruck will start being profitable at lower volume than the competition.

More important, the Cybertruck line will be higher volume faster than competitors.

In the first year of production, CapEx will be spread across 100,000 trucks. Ford’s first year production CapEx will be spread across ~20,000 trucks. Likewise any other fixed expenses.

Second year Cybertruck production is spread across 250,000 trucks. Ford’s second year production will be spread across…. ??? 100,000 maybe? They’ve claimed they would be up to that level of production, but it feels unlikely right now.

 

[greggertruck]

More important, the Cybertruck line will be higher volume faster than competitors.

In the first year of production, CapEx will be spread across 100,000 trucks. Ford’s first year production CapEx will be spread across ~20,000 trucks. Likewise any other fixed expenses.

Second year Cybertruck production is spread across 250,000 trucks. Ford’s second year production will be spread across…. ??? 100,000 maybe? They’ve claimed they would be up to that level of production, but it feels unlikely right now.

still have yet to see one out driving
I see them advertised at local dealers on Facebook, then I call and say “I’ll write you the check, how much?” They say it isn’t for sale….

good business model.

 

[cvalue13]

still have yet to see one out driving
I see them advertised at local dealers on Facebook, then I call and say “I’ll write you the check, how much?” They say it isn’t for sale….

good business model.

its not for sale because it’s a mannequin, prohibited from sale for ~6 months from floor arrival. Most are already sold at $20-30K over MSRP, awaiting that expiration date to complete the transaction.

I enjoy being in this forum, and I look forward to maybe someday receiving something like the CT I reserved years ago - maybe still several years away.

for now, and probably the next few years before meaningful CT’s are being produced, I’m more enjoying my F150 Larait ER Lightning with >320mi range for <$69,000 (after $10,000 in rebate/credits)

And while someone said it above it deserves amplifying: Ford has “only” 200k reservations because they stopped taking reservations many months ago.

Ford came to market early, and it shows.

But they came to market.

 

[Ogre]

its not for sale because it’s a mannequin, prohibited from sale for ~6 months from floor arrival. Most are already sold at $20-30K over MSRP, awaiting that expiration date to complete the transaction.

I enjoy being in this forum, and I look forward to maybe someday receiving something like the CT I reserved years ago - maybe still several years away.

for now, and probably the next few years before meaningful CT’s are being produced, I’m more enjoying my F150 Larait ER Lightning with >320mi range for <$69,000 (after $10,000 in rebate/credits)

And while someone said it above it deserves amplifying: Ford has “only” 200k reservations because they stopped taking reservations many months ago.

Ford came to market early, and it shows.

But they came to market.

Yep. Ford needed this win on their books more than Tesla did so they tried a lot harder and it shows.

Though Ford seems to have pushed the 320 mile Lightning over the $80k mark which means it’s not eligible for the new tax credit in the US now. Your truck sells for over $80k now and while it might qualify for some state rebates to bring it down, the federal credit is gone.

Congrats (genuinely), it’s a very nice truck. Particularly if you got it for $60k.

 

[greggertruck]

its not for sale because it’s a mannequin, prohibited from sale for ~6 months from floor arrival. Most are already sold at $20-30K over MSRP, awaiting that expiration date to complete the transaction.

I enjoy being in this forum, and I look forward to maybe someday receiving something like the CT I reserved years ago - maybe still several years away.

for now, and probably the next few years before meaningful CT’s are being produced, I’m more enjoying my F150 Larait ER Lightning with >320mi range for <$69,000 (after $10,000 in rebate/credits)

And while someone said it above it deserves amplifying: Ford has “only” 200k reservations because they stopped taking reservations many months ago.

Ford came to market early, and it shows.

But they came to market.

I understand your pessimism, I envy you having your EV truck already. I'm excited and skeptical of what is to come to light in the next 4-6 months.

I legit had a DREAM LAST NIGHT about the Cybertruck. It's bad over here... I am in a pretty thick-with-Teslas part of the city I live in, I am sure I will see some of the EV trucks soon, I see R1T's sometimes. Nice truck, doesn't fit my need. I toyed with a Lightning order, but... It's just not the Cybertruck. I am, again, excited and skeptical of whats to be announced very soon.

The biggest elephant in the room is price, and my skepticism shoots up when I see them still not quoting a Semi price while it's going to start shipping in the next 120 days.

 

[cvalue13]

The biggest elephant in the room is price

For me it’s both price, and also how much Elon goes further down the path of Bond villain

 

[cvalue13]

Congrats (genuinely), it’s a very nice truck. Particularly if you got it for $60k.

well, $69… but yes, I’m glad to have gotten in this 2022

Though Ford seems to have pushed the 320 mile Lightning over the $80k mark which means it’s not eligible for the new tax credit in the US now. Your truck sells for over $80k now and while it might qualify for some state rebates to bring it down, the federal credit is gone.

this is likely true for trucks delivered after 1/1/23, but not yet fully settled.

It is unclear yet, when the IRS rule-making is finalized, whether the manufacturers will thereafter respond with their pricing (and options) in ways that allow customers to mitigate (e.g., by breaking out trim levels in more granular ways, or expanding dealer-installed options off-contract)

If one gives Ford the benefit of the doubt, it was on one hand forced to increase and release the new trim level prices in advance of opening 2023 ordering, but on the other hand also forced to do so too far in advance of any IRS guidance (not likely to arrive until 12/31/22) to know what it really means. Sort of a pickle, on that view.

If instead one views Ford unfavorably, then Ford intentionally busted the new MSRP caps and in a battery bottleneck is happy to still sell every truck it manages to build.

Im not sure where I land

 

[Blue Steel]

New pricing is ridiculous. Wish I had reserved a Rivian (at the original pricing) instead. I'm still gonna order a Pro, although I may never see it as I'm sure Ford will be prioritizing Lariat, Platinum and fleet orders. Even at the new high pricing the Pro is a solid deal, about the same price as a base level Model 3. Plus with state and federal rebates I can get $15k off the MSRP.

 

[cvalue13]

Plus with state and federal rebates I can get $15k off the MSRP.

your state incentive sounds amazing (like Oregon’s?)

as for the federal, unless you take delivery in 2022 I’m hopeful for you that Ford will ultimately comply with either or both of the battery minerals or battery assembly requirements - I suspect we won’t know until days after 1/1/23

 

[Ogre]

well, $69… but yes, I’m glad to have gotten in this 2022



this is likely true for trucks delivered after 1/1/23, but not yet fully settled.

It is unclear yet, when the IRS rule-making is finalized, whether the manufacturers will thereafter respond with their pricing (and options) in ways that allow customers to mitigate (e.g., by breaking out trim levels in more granular ways, or expanding dealer-installed options off-contract)

If one gives Ford the benefit of the doubt, it was on one hand forced to increase and release the new trim level prices in advance of opening 2023 ordering, but on the other hand also forced to do so too far in advance of any IRS guidance (not likely to arrive until 12/31/22) to know what it really means. Sort of a pickle, on that view.

If instead one views Ford unfavorably, then Ford intentionally busted the new MSRP caps and in a battery bottleneck is happy to still sell every truck it manages to build.

Im not sure where I land

To be clear here.

Wasn’t trying to say Ford deliberately busted the $80k limit.

Just pointing out that this raise was clearly not done to soak up that incentive… they can’t get it!

Ford came late to this game and they are going to struggle to get decent pricing on batteries for a few years to come. I suspect their raise was reflecting cost changes and Teslas potential raise gave them a little breathing room.

 

[cvalue13]

To be clear here.

Wasn’t trying to say Ford deliberately busted the $80k limit.

Just pointing out that this raise was clearly not done to soak up that incentive… they can’t get it!

Ford came late to this game and they are going to struggle to get decent pricing on batteries for a few years to come. I suspect their raise was reflecting cost changes and Teslas potential raise gave them a little breathing room.

yes sorry, I wasn’t intending to suggest you felt Ford may have intentionally busted the MSRP caps, but instead that I’ve seen several other positing this theory. I can’t say I fully follow the theory, except to say it has to do with funneling purchases toward lesser-battery models in a battery-constrained supply chain. (Toe this seems to ignore the relative profitability of mid-range models, not to mention potentially allowing competitors a price-arbitrage advantage.)

Agree with you that the price increases seem to fairly reflect a combination of all:

(1) standard Y-o-Y increase expectation
(2) general inflation
(3) battery-specific supply cost increases,
(4) added feature costs in MY23 (ignoring that Ford is also deleting features due to purported chip shortages)
(5) response to demand


I personally think companies like Ford are far less calculating than people give them credit for, and had to bite the IRA MSRP cap bullet in the midst of uncertainty.

Not to mention, I’d like someone to show me the universe of potential buyers that both (A) buy >$80K electric trucks, and (B) don’t already bust the income caps. Sure they exist, but at a scale determining market-wide base model pricing? Dunno

 

[Ogre]

Not to mention, I’d like someone to show me the universe of potential buyers that both (A) buy >$80K electric trucks, and (B) don’t already bust the income caps. Sure they exist, but at a scale determining market-wide base model pricing? Dunno

Retired folks and small business owners all likely slide under those numbers and can make this work. Heck… fair chance me for the right truck.

I agree with most everything else you said.

 

[PhilBanks]

well, $69… but yes, I’m glad to have gotten in this 2022



this is likely true for trucks delivered after 1/1/23, but not yet fully settled.

It is unclear yet, when the IRS rule-making is finalized, whether the manufacturers will thereafter respond with their pricing (and options) in ways that allow customers to mitigate (e.g., by breaking out trim levels in more granular ways, or expanding dealer-installed options off-contract)

If one gives Ford the benefit of the doubt, it was on one hand forced to increase and release the new trim level prices in advance of opening 2023 ordering, but on the other hand also forced to do so too far in advance of any IRS guidance (not likely to arrive until 12/31/22) to know what it really means. Sort of a pickle, on that view.

If instead one views Ford unfavorably, then Ford intentionally busted the new MSRP caps and in a battery bottleneck is happy to still sell every truck it manages to build.

Im not sure where I land

Has anyone ever shipped a Lightning before or any truck? I am shipping my lightning and my BMW X5 from California to Atlanta Georgia with a company National Car Shipping. They are charging me $3400. Has anyone done this before? https://longdistancetowing.com/what-is-the-cost-to-tow-a-car-from-california-to-georgia/

 

[cvalue13]

Has anyone ever shipped a Lightning before or any truck? I am shipping my lightning and my BMW X5 from California to Atlanta Georgia with a company National Car Shipping. They are charging me $3400. Has anyone done this before? https://longdistancetowing.com/what-is-the-cost-to-tow-a-car-from-california-to-georgia/

what are your concerns, exactly? I have only one.

footprint-wise it’s no different from shipping any other F-150

Weight-wise, it’s heavier than an F150 but that’s irrelevant since the shipping company will account for weight in the shipping choices.

so as far as I can tell I think the biggest difference is this: EV’s with motors at both axle can’t be “towed” with wheels on ground like ICE vehicles. For the Lightning, it has a special emergency setting for being “towed” that basically releases the engines to a degree, which can’t be towed faster than 35mph and longer than 50miles.

Really, you want the Lightning towed only on a flatbed, with this “emergency” setting utilized for any moving of the vehicle not accomplished by driving. Basically, think of it as there being no “neutral xp

so to me, it seems like the #1 thing for you to consider when discussing with this shipping company is that they understand the Lightning cannot be put into “neutral” in any meaningful sense relevant to their towing/shipping maneuvers. It may require them understanding/using this “emergency” setting if they need the car to move in certain ways.

that said, I suspect these issues are variously common to other EVs, and that shipping companies are getting more familiar?

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