Welcome to 2023, The Year of the Cybertruck (Predictions?)

[Bill906]

They’ve done factory tours in Fremont so it’s not unpossible.

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[MaoTorresMadrid]

For the most part these predictions make sense, though I do not think Tesla will publish specs per se. When they start deliveries they will publish manuals if that is what you mean. Given that Elon spoke about the Quad being first I would be surprised if it isn’t , and for 2 reasons: (1) 4WS might be easier to implement with independent motors and axles, and (2) if Tesla implements electro-mechanical braking it might also be more easily done with independent motors. I really hope that your prediction in number of deliveries is way off. I am hoping for more like 50,000+ this year.

I think the 50,000 mark is achievable and will be rooting for it.

 

[Ogre]

We are all cheering for 50k+. I do think it’s possible, just unlikely at the moment.

Hope for the best, plan for the worst right?

The robots are arriving on a regular basis now.

 

[charliemagpie]

I can't see any constraints apart from human doubt.

We don't paint the car, and there would be processes which have improved across the Tesla board to accelerate production. The Cybertruck will benefit from that somehow.

It all comes down to the production start date. If its March , we will be seeing the 5000 per week mark at the end of the year for sure.

Would 150,000 to 200,000 in 2023 be beyond this reasoning?

 

[JBee]

I'm already looking at booking tickets , accommodation a rental so I can pick mine up in Texas this year.

Question is for what month should I come? I suppose winter in Texas and the southern states isn't that cold?

 

[Ogre]

I can't see any constraints apart from human doubt.

We don't paint the car, and there would be processes which have improved across the Tesla board to accelerate production. The Cybertruck will benefit from that somehow.

It all comes down to the production start date. If its March , we will be seeing the 5000 per week mark at the end of the year for sure.

Would 150,000 to 200,000 in 2023 be beyond this reasoning?

That would mean production would have to start in March and skyrocket to over 4000/ month within a couple of months. Possible I suppose. Not super likely.

Musk said that hitting volume production usually takes about a year. You are talking about hitting it in under 3 months.

 

[charliemagpie]

Did he say a year? I missed that.

I recall him saying volume production takes about 6 months,, but he was talking about cars.

 

[JBee]

Here a quick and dirty optimistic production estimate graph to get an idea of when your order number could be up. This is based on reaching 1000 units by end of September 2023 and reaching Giga Shanghai MY production rates by July 2024. So December looks good for me...

And for those that missed the reveal night boat:

 

[Ehninger1212]

Based on my Theoretical place in line. I could easily have mine before EOY (~10,000 in line).

The big question is how much money will I need to fork over?

 

[anionic1]

I think we will see what i list below. I think with one giga press the castings are going to become the bottleneck eventually. I think munro mentioned a 2-3 minute cycle time for the castings. So to make a front and rear casting thats 4-6 minutes. Obviously they aren't switching molds but you get it. That's only about 2500 complete truck castings per week if its running 24/7. I bet Idra is already building them a second gigacasting machine for the CT.

I think Elon needs to recover money right now. The quad motor will likely be the most profitable and will have less demand as many dream about owning a $85k vehicle, but not as many will actually pull the trigger. So starting with the quad makes sense to me. I have a buddy that was just offered a new Model X plaid for around $90k (he knows the right people) and he makes well over $200k per year. Even with $20k down your still going to land around $1500-$1600/mo with insurance. He said forget it. Even though it was an incredible deal and he got a deal on a Model Y performance instead. Not as many people will actually go for that quad motor when they see the price- especially if the economy keeps trending in the direction that it is.

Dual motor SR- 300 mi- $65k
Dual motor LR- 500mi- $75k
Quad motor LR- 500 mi- $85k

 

[Ehninger1212]

I think we will see what i list below. I think with one giga press the castings are going to become the bottleneck eventually. I think munro mentioned a 2-3 minute cycle time for the castings. So to make a front and rear casting thats 4-6 minutes. Obviously they aren't switching molds but you get it. That's only about 2500 complete truck castings per week if its running 24/7. I bet Idra is already building them a second gigacasting machine for the CT.

I think Elon needs to recover money right now. The quad motor will likely be the most profitable and will have less demand as many dream about owning a $85k vehicle, but not as many will actually pull the trigger. So starting with the quad makes sense to me. I have a buddy that was just offered a new Model X plaid for around $90k (he knows the right people) and he makes well over $200k per year. Even with $20k down your still going to land around $1500-$1600/mo with insurance. He said forget it. Even though it was an incredible deal and he got a deal on a Model Y performance instead. Not as many people will actually go for that quad motor when they see the price- especially if the economy keeps trending in the direction that it is.

Dual motor SR- 300 mi- $65k
Dual motor LR- 500mi- $75k
Quad motor LR- 500 mi- $85k

If the cheapest model really cost 65k.. im out. I might purchase one to literally resale for profit haha.

 

[Ogre]

If the cheapest model really cost 65k.. im out. I might purchase one to literally resale for profit haha.

Don’t borrow worries. Conjecture over price is random.

Though I suspect strong chance the first trucks released will be more than $65k. Quad or tri motor is most likely first release. Dual motor remains to be seen.

 

[charliemagpie]

Munroe says the Cybertruck casting takes 2- 3 minutes ?

I would go with our current benchmarks ... Casting less than a minute.

 

[Ogre]

Munroe says the Cybertruck casting takes 2- 3 minutes ?

I would go with our current benchmarks ... Casting less than a minute.

The 9k Ton one might be a bit slower. That’s still a capacity of ~200k/ year+.

Musk said initial production goal is 250k+ Cybertrucks.

 

[CyberBad]

It is interesting to speculate about the ramp speed ....Will it be like the model y or model X. I think it will be like the Model Y.....I believe the Stainless-Steel bending problem will be solved. Also Testla has the giant giga press and has a lot of experience with assembly lines.

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