Welcome to 2023, The Year of the Cybertruck (Predictions?)

[Ogre]

There really aren’t any electric trucks available now.

Competition is still 99% ICE vehicles as it was when Cybertruck launched. The trickle of trucks from Ford and Rivian is barely a drop in the bucket.

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[CyberKeggy]

We all agree that he wants to clobber the competition for MY and M3, right? And yet both have remained amongst the highest priced options - if not the highest - in their respective vehicle markets. There has been no market correction to undercut the competition. Profit margin > market share, at least lately.

Why would you expect the total opposite to apply to CT?

It feels like people are taking what they want to see happen, and assigning it to what Tesla will do.

I agree there is some wishful thinking going on. But also, demand for the 3 and Y are off the charts. If you look at the 3 and Y, they are stylistically similar to the Mach E, for example. Demand is much higher for 3 and Y than the Mach E. Plus, none of the other cars out there are real competition. Ford is not producing as many Mach Es as Tesla is with the Y. When it comes to Cybertruck, Ford has a head start with their "normal" looking truck and Rivian seems more luxury than a work truck. Elon wants to beat the F150. That is why Cybertruck beat it in a tug of war at the reveal. Although Ford's production is not fully scaled yet, they will be. Elon needs to convince the average truck buyer to get the Cybertruck, not their comfortable F150.

 

[Ehninger1212]

I agree there is some wishful thinking going on. But also, demand for the 3 and Y are off the charts. If you look at the 3 and Y, they are stylistically similar to the Mach E, for example. Demand is much higher for 3 and Y than the Mach E. Plus, none of the other cars out there are real competition. Ford is not producing as many Mach Es as Tesla is with the Y. When it comes to Cybertruck, Ford has a head start with their "normal" looking truck and Rivian seems more luxury than a work truck. Elon wants to beat the F150. That is why Cybertruck beat it in a tug of war at the reveal. Although Ford's production is not fully scaled yet, they will be. Elon needs to convince the average truck buyer to get the Cybertruck, not their comfortable F150.

Its important to note that the goal at the reveal was to beat the ICE F-150. Im thinking the CT could to still undercut ALL the EV pickup competition and come close to ICE competition in price while still maintaining a fat margin.

On the flip side. Tesla could easily mark this beast up and it will still sell like crazy.

 

[kbolt]

3 year? 7 year? 2% APR? 6% APR? You can't estimate a monthly loan price without any of that info as well as price which seems to be somewhere in the ballpark of $39,900 - $250,000.

 

[CostcoSamples]

I predict 3 variants:
Standard Range (dual motor, 300 miles)
Long Range (dual motor, 500 miles)
Plaid (quad motor, 500 miles, plus a few nifty features and/or luxury upgrades)

lots of production kinks to work out, then WWIII and/or COVID Act II creates more geopolitical garbage and production is delayed until 2024.

 

[TyPope]

We were talking above about how many trucks we will see in 2023, and after looking at Model Y production, I think my 5,000 number is pretty defendable. Seems like 10,000 or even perhaps 15,000 is attainable, but I’m struggling to see how they get 20,000 out the door in 2023 unless the ramp is much quicker than the Model Y.

Texas Model Y production started in January. Tesla hit 10,000 Model Ys produced by June and 20,000 by end of October.

So…. 10 months to get the first 20,000 cars out the door. If we assume the same rate, we’d need production starting in early March to hit 20,000 trucks.

I think the Model Y ramp hit a lot of speed bumps so perhaps we’ll get spun up a bit faster. Fingers crossed we blow all these numbers away.

I think you are right about the speed bumps. Remember one of those speed bumps is the fact they basically had to build 4680 and 2170s at the same time. Another thing is that the factory wasn't nearly as completed as it is this year. I mean, they are still operating on the temporary electrical switchyard for crying out loud. That should at least be rectified very soon. There is also good reason to believe that the CT production line is mostly laid out with a couple of large puzzle pieces incomplete - 9kton Gigapresses and the stamping area. But, the 9kton presses are being assembled onsite now and the stamping area is being finished up. I think both of those areas will be completed in the next month so they won't slow things down.

Going to be an exciting year for us!

 

[Coolbreeze704]

I disagree. We know that demand is high, but Elon wants to come out and clobber the market. He wants to produce an awesome truck, with more range and features for LESS than other automakers. If he can find a way to undercut the F150 Lightning, he will. It will have to be 10K cheaper than the F150 Lightning to convince others to make the jump. Margins will still be high. He wants to win.

I could not agree more!

 

[TirNaOg]

If demand is slowing tis because of prices!
And Tesla can adjust that in a big way if they want.
M3 should be starting at 30K. MY should be around 40K.
I bet if they were demand would go thru the roof again.

And I want my Truck!

 

[kbolt]

When you click the information icon it should tell you what it used to calculate that number. You should share that so that we have a baseline of what we're taking about. Someone with a 500 credit score and an 800 credit score are going to have to adjust differently.

 

[Bkent100]

Seems increasingly likely we’ll see at least a few trucks roll off the line this year so I thought a thread where we make predictions about how this all plays out. My predictions are about just the Tesla stuff I think will happen that impacts the Cybertruck, but you can go more broad if you want.

I’ve deliberately stayed away from pricing guesses because they just end up in pointless debate.

• Gigapress assembly continues and it is completed and tossing off Cybertruck castings by end of Q1.
• 4680 ramp in Texas continues we finally see the 4680 Model Y added to the config page.
• Sometime around March - June we see the first of the beta trucks on the road. Likely at a Supercharger.
• First v4 Supercharger installations happen. Likely appearing at new locations rather than at existing chargers.
• V3 Superchargers get an upgrade to 300 or 350 kW.

• Handover party and first Cybertruck deliveries in early July — August to employees.
  • Full specs announced for the first 2 trims—AWD (dual) and LR (likely tri motor).
  • Either the Single Motor will be officially dropped or Tesla will say it’s coming later (2025 perhaps)
  • Quad motor gets renamed to Quad Plaid and gets pushed back to 2024. (See comments below)
• Cybertruck configuration page with pricing opens October — November and customer deliveries in November - December.
• Only 1 truck will be available in 2023. Likely the tri motor. Second trim will come in early-mid 2024.
• Tesla delivers 5,000 trucks before year end.

I’m probably wrong about the tri motor. That said, here’s my justification. Tesla really wants to hit that 500 mile range and the only way they hit that is by having a massive battery pack or by having an extremely efficient truck. The tri motor can use the same super efficient drivetrain as the Semi. If this happens, the tri motor truck becomes the “LR” truck leaving room for a performance/ plaid trim in the form of the quad motor.

This is based loosely on how the Model 3 launch played out, plus our understanding of current state of production.

clearly the market doesn’t anticipate any cybertruck deliveries in the first half of 2023 given the horrendous stock price. The stock price direction is my marker for pending deliveries. In short, the market doesn’t care about or believe in Elons bullshit anymore so the projected revenue streams will only change when cybertruck roll off assembly line!

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