Welcome to 2023, The Year of the Cybertruck (Predictions?)

[JBee]

I think a lot depends on whether they start with a 2 motor or 3/4 motor as far as our place in line and where we fit in this graph. I am in the 1st 45k orders for dual motor but if they start with 3/4 motor 1st then I would be pushed out until mid late 2024 I would think.

I hope they don't make a three quarter motor version, that will really stuff up the performance goals!

But seriously, I still don't think there will be a Dual motor 4WD, only a dual motor RWD, and a 4 motor 4WD. No three motor or single at all. Accordingly we'll only have QM versions (possibly with three quarter sized motors!) in the first few hundred thousand deliveries, which my first graph shows, which just so happens to align with Ogres predictions of 250k by 2024 including the ramp, and production reaching Giga China MY levels by then.

So a QM, 4WD, 4WS amphibious 420mile range for $55-65k because of the production line streamlining.

Sponsored

 

[Ogre]

I know and agree totally, it's just where it is right now. I think their 20m vehicles will not be the American Teslas we know and love. It's gonna be BYD china cars, OR MEXICO.

The simplest comparison, if you're musical... Squier vs American Fender.

Yeah. Quad/ tri first, maybe dual. Single is when capacity allows.

 

[Ehninger1212]

If you can't clear the financing, there's not a truck to resale. ? I won't being buying anyones truck, but I'll take their reservation.

Clearing financing and wanting to spend that much money are two different things.

 

[greggertruck]

Clearing financing and wanting to spend that much money are two different things.

Yes they are. Chicken and the egg.

you’ll find a lot of people wanting to spend money for the next year or 2, but they can’t clear financing. Lol

 

[Crissa]

In a list of a million random Americans, you can expect about ten thousand deceased after one year.

They reservation holders skewed very much older than average, and we had a pandemic so yeah... Twice that, easily.

-Crissa

 

[Crissa]

I know and agree totally, it's just where it is right now. I think their 20m vehicles will not be the American Teslas we know and love. It's gonna be BYD china cars, OR MEXICO.

The simplest comparison, if you're musical... Squier vs American Fender.

PS, the Indonesian Fenders are now as good as the Mexican ones were a decade ago, which in turn are as good as the American ones were... It takes time to build expertise, but it does happen.

-Crissa

 

[greggertruck]

PS, the Indonesian Fenders are now as good as the Mexican ones were a decade ago, which in turn are as good as the American ones were... It takes time to build expertise, but it does happen.

-Crissa

I think a lot of people ignorantly read into the manufacturing country. BUT. yea.

I play DW drums, not cause American made... But cause they're the BEST. Arguably. Yamaha makes sick drums too though! And Tama...

 

[Crissa]

I think a lot of people ignorantly read into the manufacturing country. BUT. yea.

I play DW drums, not cause American made... But cause they're the BEST. Arguably. Yamaha makes sick drums too though! And Tama...

Yamaha actually makes great instruments! In the US tho we usually just see their school-band level stuff, but their pro stuff is perfect.

My spouse made sure I can play the bass to keep up with her since practicing brass instruments wasn't practical. All hail robot instructors and especially mine, Rocksmith ^-^

-Crissa

 

[Ogre]

My spouse made sure I can play the base bass to keep up with her since practicing brass instruments wasn't practical. All hail robot instructors and especially mine, Rocksmith ^-^

“All your base are belong to us.”

 

[greggertruck]

Yamaha actually makes great instruments! In the US tho we usually just see their school-band level stuff, but their pro stuff is perfect.

My spouse made sure I can play the bass to keep up with her since practicing brass instruments wasn't practical. All hail robot instructors and especially mine, Rocksmith ^-^

-Crissa

Ahhhhh.. No. I've played drums that are very much NOT school band equipment from Yamaha, across USA. Kits that cost several times my first car. But their marketing is hard pressed into elementary age instruments, for sure.

 

[Crissa]

“All your base are belong to us.”

I fixed it before you replied! Now I can't fix anything else lest someone think the opposite.

-Crissa

 

[Ogre]

I fixed it before you replied! Now I can't fix anything else lest someone think the opposite.

-Crissa

But we know It’s all about that base.

 

[Crissa]

Ahhhhh.. No. I've played drums that are very much NOT school band equipment from Yamaha, across USA. Kits that cost several times my first car. But their marketing is hard pressed into elementary age instruments, for sure.

Right! But you go into a store, or well, the vast majority of it is just strictly competent. Or designed to be sold at a lower price mark. It'll do the job, day in and out, just don't look at the edges.

But their pro stuff, that stuff is good.

-Crissa

 

[BobDavis73]

Seems increasingly likely we’ll see at least a few trucks roll off the line this year so I thought a thread where we make predictions about how this all plays out. My predictions are about just the Tesla stuff I think will happen that impacts the Cybertruck, but you can go more broad if you want.

I’ve deliberately stayed away from pricing guesses because they just end up in pointless debate.

• Gigapress assembly continues and it is completed and tossing off Cybertruck castings by end of Q1.
• 4680 ramp in Texas continues we finally see the 4680 Model Y added to the config page.
• Sometime around March - June we see the first of the beta trucks on the road. Likely at a Supercharger.
• First v4 Supercharger installations happen. Likely appearing at new locations rather than at existing chargers.
• V3 Superchargers get an upgrade to 300 or 350 kW.

• Handover party and first Cybertruck deliveries in early July — August to employees.
  • Full specs announced for the first 2 trims—AWD (dual) and LR (likely tri motor).
  • Either the Single Motor will be officially dropped or Tesla will say it’s coming later (2025 perhaps)
  • Quad motor gets renamed to Quad Plaid and gets pushed back to 2024. (See comments below)
• Cybertruck configuration page with pricing opens October — November and customer deliveries in November - December.
• Only 1 truck will be available in 2023. Likely the tri motor. Second trim will come in early-mid 2024.
• Tesla delivers 5,000 trucks before year end.

I’m probably wrong about the tri motor. That said, here’s my justification. Tesla really wants to hit that 500 mile range and the only way they hit that is by having a massive battery pack or by having an extremely efficient truck. The tri motor can use the same super efficient drivetrain as the Semi. If this happens, the tri motor truck becomes the “LR” truck leaving room for a performance/ plaid trim in the form of the quad motor.

This is based loosely on how the Model 3 launch played out, plus our understanding of current state of production.

I owned a tool and die shop manufacturing metal stamping tools for automotive appliance and defense (now retired). The challenge of the new CT line is the stainless steel body. The forms are much simpler to produce, however, they will require score lines to be either cut or coined into the surface to get nice, sharp bends. Coining into 3mm 300 series stainless would have high tool wear, while machining the long score lines will produce lots of chips that can be a real mess. I think they will machine the scores and deal with the chips. The casting takes thousands of hours and cost out of the initial line setup. The lack of a paint line is another major plus. The debug of a paint line can take months. I think the giga press will be producing castings in the 2nd quarter. My guess is that the first beta trucks for road testing will be seen in July. Production trucks will start shipping in very late 3rd quarter at best and 15,000 will be the maximum produced in 2023. To me the real question is how will they handle the new quad motor. Will tri motor or dual motor reservations be allowed to upgrade? This will need to happen by the end of the first quarter in my opinion. I have 2 duals and 1 Tri motor on order. My first truck is over 600,000 in the queue. Patience may be a virtue but it's no fun. My model Y was delivered in July of 2020. There were major changes that occurred before December that I didn't get. I hope they get all the first run mods done before I take delivery of my first truck.

Sponsored