The Competition: 2024 Silverado EV Reviews Are In

[HaulingAss]

I think the single motor, RWD model might be cancelled due to low demand. Which means the cheapest model might be a dual motor for around the $50K range, which would make it very competitive with legacy gas trucks and blow the value offered by legacy EV trucks out of the water.

I haven't seen too many people in the last couple of years pushing the idea that Cybertruck would be under $40K, particularly not in the near future. Given enough time, there might eventually be a bare bones, RWD, lower range model under $40K but it could take a while, I wouldn't hold my breath.

The real loonies are those predicting six figure price tags. That makes no sense and has no evidence to support it. They just made it up out of thin air. Probably people trying to reduce mass-market interest in the Cybertruck due to the threat it poses to legacy sales, oil and gas interests, parts suppliers, auto dealerships, and auto repair shops. They think if they can get people to believe the Cybertruck is expensive and priced out of their reach, they might just break down and trade in their current truck for another brand-new gasser.

Some people will say anything, no matter how stupid, if they think it might prolong the era of legacy trucks, gas stations, repair shops, etc. just another year or two.

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[Coolbreeze704]

I think the single motor, RWD model might be cancelled due to low demand. Which means the cheapest model might be a dual motor for around the $50K range, which would make it very competitive with legacy gas trucks and blow the value offered by legacy EV trucks out of the water.

I haven't seen too many people in the last couple of years pushing the idea that Cybertruck would be under $40K, particularly not in the near future. Given enough time, there might eventually be a bare bones, RWD, lower range model under $40K but it could take a while, I wouldn't hold my breath.

The real loonies are those predicting six figure price tags. That makes no sense and has no evidence to support it. They just made it up out of thin air. Probably people trying to reduce mass-market interest in the Cybertruck due to the threat it poses to legacy sales, oil and gas interests, parts suppliers, auto dealerships, and auto repair shops. They think if they can get people to believe the Cybertruck is expensive and priced out of their reach, they might just break down and trade in their current truck for another brand-new gasser.

Some people will say anything, no matter how stupid, if they think it might prolong the era of legacy trucks, gas stations, repair shops, etc. just another year or two.

It amazing me how many people will spit out these high numbers for the CT and sound so convinced. They cannot understand Tesla's mission statement. They are the same ones that are upset that Elon opened up the Super Charger network and now they may have to wait for an open spot.

Everything they do is to “To accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy.” Not to transition the world to Tesla's. Not to build a cyberpunk cool truck to sell to a hand full of people that can afford a cool ride.

A 100k Cybertruck does not align with that mission.

 

[HaulingAss]

It sounds like it will compete well with the Ford Lightning.
If it truly can get 450 miles of range, that will have a lot of appeal to some buyers.

Remember, a 450 mile EPA range is calculated using a mixed driving cycle with very low average speeds. What this means is that electric trucks with poorer aero will take an outsized hit on real world range since that typically happens at 70 mph (and the EPA test cycles don't even go up to 70 mph). Legacy trucks have worse aerodynamics than a brick and this matters a LOT when going 65-80 mph. In other words, there is not a chance in Hell the Silverado will do 450 miles of real-world highway driving. It will be so far below that it won't even be funny.

Is it expensive? Yes. $77,000 for the WorK Truck model is pricey, but so is the Rivian and the Lightning and we assume the CyberTruck.

No. *You* assume the entry level Cybertruck (work model) will be pricy. And it's a flimsy assumption based upon nothing reliable. No way will will the "work truck" version of Cybertruck cost $77K. Pure fiction.

 

[cvalue13]

The real loonies are those predicting six figure price tags. That makes no sense and has no evidence to support it. They just made it up out of thin air.

I mean, they may be mistaken or under thinking, but they have reasons and “evidence”

namely, things like the competitor’s market equivalents being priced similarly, the CT purporting to offer far more than even those competitor equivalents, inflation since 2019, apparent lack of meeting in 2023 what was expected of battery performance back in 2019c etc., etc., etc.

they may well be wrong , for reasons you or others would put forward

but worth noting that such reasons you and other’s put forward are just as equally limited to various deductions and inferences absent any direct proof

so it’s unfair if not strange to act like people with reasonable conjectures are ‘making it up’ and ‘based on nothing’

past strange, it’s dumb to then go on and say completely ding-don’t stuff like:

Probably people trying to reduce mass-market interest in the Cybertruck due to the threat it poses to legacy sales, oil and gas interests, parts suppliers, auto dealerships, and auto repair shops.

 

[cvalue13]

A 100k Cybertruck does not align with that mission.

Nor does it contradict that mission

because I haven’t seen a single person say “Tesla will ONLY AND FOREVER offer a $100K truck”

meanwhile, check prices on other upper-trim offerings from Tesla that near or breach the $100K mark - none of which indicates Tesla is doing something contradictory to its mission

I’m not trying to side with any initial release pricing / model availability predictions, because I think both sides have enough good points that I’m left only unsure

I’m just saying that, listening to the two or three camps debate these questions, for every person too skeptical and hyperbolic on high pricing there’s a person equally too optimistic and hyperbolic on low pricing, and they’re all often talking past each other regarding what Tesla’s long term goals may be vs what will be offered next year

 

[Coolbreeze704]

I mean, they may be mistaken or under thinking, but they have reasons and “evidence”

namely, things like the competitor’s market equivalents being priced similarly, the CT purporting to offer far more than even those competitor equivalents, inflation since 2019, apparent lack of meeting in 2023 what was expected of battery performance back in 2019c etc., etc., etc.

they may well be wrong , for reasons you or others would put forward

but worth noting that such reasons you and other’s put forward are just as equally limited to various deductions and inferences absent any direct proof

so it’s unfair if not strange to act like people with reasonable conjectures are ‘making it up’ and ‘based on nothing’

past strange, it’s dumb to then go on and say completely ding-don’t stuff like:

 

[Crissa]

If they can sell the CT for that much less than the X, I will be very surprised. I hope they can, but it is hard to imagine the CT costing less to make than the X.

Luckily, Tesla isn't limited by your imagination.

The Cybertruck has always been priced like a Model Y. It's designed to be easy to assemble and take parts that are easily sourced.

Yeah, any new technology has challenges, but why would Tesla be limited by others' difficulties?

-Crissa

 

[Knucklehead]

So when they priced out the Cybertruck in 2019 and the price was less, far less then the X was it an accounting error at Tesla, ignorant guess, or bold face lie?

I vote for none of the above. I think they actually thought they could build it for less than the X. And maybe they can, but reality is a bitch. Now they are getting ready to start production, and they have paid for all the parts and materials needed to build them. So now they know how much it really costs.

And I think, really, they were way too optimistic. It was not nefarious, it was wishful thinking. A goal they tried to achieve, and failed. Due to gravity and reality.

CT is a truck. Sold in U.S., it should have a much higher volume than X so it can afford to have lower margin. It does not have paint or complications of a fancy door. The question is if Tesla will keep the price as low as they can to maintain volume from the get go or they will start with high price until they run out of high margin sales and then they lower it.

It might have higher volume if the typical truck buyers are lining up to buy one. Many have posted good arguments for why maybe that won't be the case. I tend to think if the value proposition is good, the typical truck buyer will line up. The question is: can Tesla afford to price the CT where the average American truck buyer actually gets interested?

I agree with @cvalue13 - nobody knows except those inside Tesla what the price will be on release. There are good arguments to be made either way.

But to me the bottom line is profit. Ford is not making money off any EV it produces. GM is not either. So we cannot use their vehicles as price benchmarks, except to say they are too low for a profitable vehicle. If Ford can't make money on the Lightning, do we assume Tesla will sell the CT at a loss also? Ford can absorb the loss better than Tesla can, IMO.

My prediction is they will release higher end CT models first, just like everyone has done. Release the $170k Lucid, but promise a $60k one is coming. Hummer did it. Well, Ford didn't with the MME, but they also are losing a ton of money on it. The Rivian R1T released for much less than I expected, but after reality kicked them in the buttocks, they raised the price just to where I thought it would be.

The biggest cost drivers are the batteries and motors. There is no way I can see a much bigger battery and three motors costing less than the top of the line Model X. How is that possible? Don't we all believe in math? If Tesla can do it, it will be freaking amazing. Maybe they figured out the magic formula. I hope they have.

 

[Coolbreeze704]

I vote for none of the above. I think they actually thought they could build it for less than the X. And maybe they can, but reality is a bitch. Now they are getting ready to start production, and they have paid for all the parts and materials needed to build them. So now they know how much it really costs.

And I think, really, they were way too optimistic. It was not nefarious, it was wishful thinking. A goal they tried to achieve, and failed. Due to gravity and reality.

So based on your avatar you are bought into the boat life you will enjoy but seriously doubt the price they shared?

Time will tell. We are all right and we are all wrong.

 

[Knucklehead]

So based on your avatar you are bought into the boat life you will enjoy but seriously doubt the price they shared?
Time will tell. We are all right and we are all wrong.

I think the idea of taking the CT into the water like a boat is ridiculous and amazing. It makes me laugh thinking about it. Can you imagine if they actually built it to do something like that? ?

I hope I am wrong about CT pricing. I hope they release the top spec model at less than $80k, and the WT at less than $60k. So let's see. We have a few months to argue about it...

 

[Coolbreeze704]

I think the idea of taking the CT into the water like a boat is ridiculous and amazing. It makes me laugh thinking about it. Can you imagine if they actually built it to do something like that? ?

I hope I am wrong about CT pricing. I hope they release the top spec model at less than $80k, and the WT at less than $60k. So let's see. We have a few months to argue about it...

It is all good.

Just time well spent waiting on our 54,900 Dual motor Cybertrucks.

 

[Knucklehead]

It is all good.

Just time well spent waiting on our 54,900 Dual motor Cybertrucks.

Will you move forward if the price is where I think it will be? I think a dual motor with the initial release configuration will be $80-90k. I bet they produce those for six months or so before introducing new models and different price levels. I bet they promise a $60k version to be produced in late 2024.

Edit: A $75k price is also possible, I think. I doubt it will be much less than that. No way less than $70k.

 

[Diehard]

I vote for none of the above. I think they actually thought they could build it for less than the X. And maybe they can, but reality is a bitch. Now they are getting ready to start production, and they have paid for all the parts and materials needed to build them. So now they know how much it really costs.

And I think, really, they were way too optimistic. It was not nefarious, it was wishful thinking. A goal they tried to achieve, and failed. Due to gravity and reality.



It might have higher volume if the typical truck buyers are lining up to buy one. Many have posted good arguments for why maybe that won't be the case. I tend to think if the value proposition is good, the typical truck buyer will line up. The question is: can Tesla afford to price the CT where the average American truck buyer actually gets interested?

I agree with @cvalue13 - nobody knows except those inside Tesla what the price will be on release. There are good arguments to be made either way.

But to me the bottom line is profit. Ford is not making money off any EV it produces. GM is not either. So we cannot use their vehicles as price benchmarks, except to say they are too low for a profitable vehicle. If Ford can't make money on the Lightning, do we assume Tesla will sell the CT at a loss also? Ford can absorb the loss better than Tesla can, IMO.

My prediction is they will release higher end CT models first, just like everyone has done. Release the $170k Lucid, but promise a $60k one is coming. Hummer did it. Well, Ford didn't with the MME, but they also are losing a ton of money on it. The Rivian R1T released for much less than I expected, but after reality kicked them in the buttocks, they raised the price just to where I thought it would be.

The biggest cost drivers are the batteries and motors. There is no way I can see a much bigger battery and three motors costing less than the top of the line Model X. How is that possible? Don't we all believe in math? If Tesla can do it, it will be freaking amazing. Maybe they figured out the magic formula. I hope they have.

I don't claim to know what CT pricing would be. Just guessing like everyone else. All I am saying is that Elon has made the connection between volume and price many times. And setting up the factory and the supply to be capable of high volume. I just listened to Farley saying my truck is made of ton of modules coming from different manufacturers. Tesla makes a lot of stuff in house, it uses the giga-casting (none of the examples from the competitors you mentioned do that). It is reasonable to assume Tesla is capable of producing CT at lower cost than competitors. So if it sells CT at the same or lower price than competition, it does not mean it is losing money on it. Also, cost of production may be the limiting factor but not the only factor on pricing. As long as Rivian, GM and Ford are selling trucks at a certain price (even if it is at a loss), consumer will look at their options and CT pricing will only result in high volume sales if has a justifiable value (with respect to both ICE and BEV truck options on the market). Of course initially, nothing will work based on reason. Rivian was selling at $150K on open market.

 

[Coolbreeze704]

Will you move forward if the price is where I think it will be? I think a dual motor with the initial release configuration will be $80-90k. I bet they produce those for six months or so before introducing new models and different price levels. I bet they promise a $60k version to be produced in late 2024.

Edit: A $75k price is also possible, I think. I doubt it will be much less than that. No way less than $70k.

To satisfy your question but not to even qualify as a possibility IMO, it all depends on FSD progress. If FSD with HW4 is still lagging it will come down to how it compares to my Lightning, but honestly I don't see this truck being anything but amazing, groundbreaking and will not (IMO) be priced beyond 10% of reveal day price.

This is all just conjecture but conjecture that works for the good of us all.

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