Conversion Rate through December 2026 and first 550,000 units -- what's your guesstimate?

[Tinker71]

OK folks concentrate. The validity of this poll requires some assumptions. You might not like them, but live with them. You can tell me I am full of it in your comments.

1.) The price of the tri motor is $79,420, The price of the dual motor is $59,420. The single motor is not available until 2027
2.) 4ws is standard, the tailgate is not as fancy, the middle front seat is an extra $1500 option otherwise the range and performance is similar to the 2019 specifications.
3.) When your reservation comes up you will get an email from Tesla and you can purchase either the dual or tri but you have one week to finalize your decision and put down $2500 non refundable deposit before they move to the next batch of reservation numbers. Tesla will only contact the next batch when they think they can deliver the vehicle in 6 months from order.
4.) Tesla will make 150k units in late 2023 through 2024 and 250k units in 2025 and 2026. So this pole only covers the first 550,000 units.
5.) While you may want to look at this from your position try to think about the average reservation holder position. Will that person have the money, will they choose another EV pick up , are they disenfranchised by Elon's antics, is the towing range performance a no go so they stick with ICE or ICE/hybrid, or did they just change their mind. I think the conversion rate will be higher for the first 50,000 units but again, think about the range of the poll.

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[Tinker71]

OK folks concentrate. The validity of this poll requires some assumptions. You might not like them, but live with them. You can tell me I am full of it in your comments.

1.) The price of the tri motor is $79,420, The price of the dual motor is $59,420. The single motor is not available until 2027
2.) 4ws is standard, the tailgate is not as fancy, the middle front seat is an extra $1500 option otherwise the range and performance is similar to the 2019 specifications.
3.) When your reservation comes up you will get an email from Tesla and you can purchase either the dual or tri but you have one week to finalize your decision and put down $2500 non refundable deposit before they move to the next batch of reservation numbers. Tesla will only contact the next batch when they think they can deliver the vehicle in 6 months from order.
4.) Tesla will make 150k units in late 2023 through 2024 and 250k units in 2025 and 2026. So this pole only covers the first 550,000 units.
5.) While you may want to look at this from your position try to think about the average reservation holder position. Will that person have the money, will they choose another EV pick up , are they disenfranchised by Elon's antics, is the towing range performance a no go so they stick with ICE or ICE/hybrid, or did they just change their mind. I think the conversion rate will be higher for the first 50,000 units but again, think about the range of the poll.

For me I am around 600k in line so I am confident I will would get my CT in 2026 with even a modest amount of dropouts. It really depends on how badly I need a truck after that expected receipt date. I have gotten by without one for 3 years while waiting and my trailer and Toyota Sienna does fine most of the time. I love my leased model 3 and will probably pick up something similar when my lease comes due in 2026. I can't see myself doing my longish commute in my CT but if they come up with some solar charging I wouldn't feel too bad about it. IDK. $60k is still a lot of money, but I can afford it. The economics of truck ownership for someone that only needs a truck 6 days a month is pretty bad.

If I need a truck I would probably want to tow distances. This will be hardish with current tech. I would consider a super hybrid from another manufacturer as long as the BEV only range was at least 100 miles, but this doesn't appear to be an option in the next 3 years.

My vote was 60% conversion rate during this period. I don't expect to have to make a decision until late 2025.

 

[Greshnab]

you need a followup poll .. do YOU.. meaning the person taking the poll intend on buying any and all reservations you have for a CT... use the same pricing structure you used here... I suspect the do you plan on buying poll would be closer to 80%

 

[CyberGus]

Math is hard

 

[MonkeyDeLuffy]

I picked 70% because I cannot count more than 3...

 

[FarAway]

OK folks concentrate. The validity of this poll requires some assumptions. You might not like them, but live with them. You can tell me I am full of it in your comments.

1.) The price of the tri motor is $79,420, The price of the dual motor is $59,420. The single motor is not available until 2027
2.) 4ws is standard, the tailgate is not as fancy, the middle front seat is an extra $1500 option otherwise the range and performance is similar to the 2019 specifications.
3.) When your reservation comes up you will get an email from Tesla and you can purchase either the dual or tri but you have one week to finalize your decision and put down $2500 non refundable deposit before they move to the next batch of reservation numbers. Tesla will only contact the next batch when they think they can deliver the vehicle in 6 months from order.
4.) Tesla will make 150k units in late 2023 through 2024 and 250k units in 2025 and 2026. So this pole only covers the first 550,000 units.
5.) While you may want to look at this from your position try to think about the average reservation holder position. Will that person have the money, will they choose another EV pick up , are they disenfranchised by Elon's antics, is the towing range performance a no go so they stick with ICE or ICE/hybrid, or did they just change their mind. I think the conversion rate will be higher for the first 50,000 units but again, think about the range of the poll.

Your assumptions are fair. Personally, I think totals closer to 200k-250k through 2024, based on Elon's comments.

(Ck your numbers on item 4, it totals 650k, not 550k though 2026. )

 

[FarAway]

One more BIG unknown affecting the order conversion rate in my opinion is the percentage of "Flippers".

I think it will depend on how easy TESLA makes it (any type of limited NO Re-Sale clause in the purchase contract?), and what kind on secondary market materializes for speculators to sell their new CyberTrucks.

 

[CyberGus]

... the percentage of "Flippers".

 

[Coolbreeze704]

Awe, I didn't realize just how cute flippers could be.

 

[greggertruck]

So, I put 70%. That's assuming that dual motor is on par with the Model Y 330 range. It'd be the best selling trim I'd imagine.

 

[Coolbreeze704]

So, I put 70%. That's assuming that dual motor is on par with the Model Y 330 range. It'd be the best selling trim I'd imagine.

Agree on the Dual motor being most popular trim.

I went with 60%. I think it won't be price increase changing peoples minds since I think we will be within 10% of reveal.

I believe that government fiscal tightening and fear of recession will lead to tighter family budgets. Interest rates will take many out. Unfortunately time itself will change peoples personal situations, health and even death. Lastly many placed multiple order with hope of flipping and that will prove difficult and will have to cancel.

 

[WHIZZARD OF OZ]

Update: Turtle WHACKS!
Whacks ON!
Whacks OFF!
( Go 2 Settings )

 

[Coolbreeze704]

Update: Turtle WHACKS!
Whacks ON!
Whacks OFF!
( Go 2 Settings )

Lol, someone needs to tell the little guy turtles can't fly.

 

[WHIZZARD OF OZ]

OK folks concentrate. The validity of this poll requires some assumptions. You might not like them, but live with them. You can tell me I am full of it in your comments.

1.) The price of the tri motor is $79,420, The price of the dual motor is $59,420. The single motor is not available until 2027
2.) 4ws is standard, the tailgate is not as fancy, the middle front seat is an extra $1500 option otherwise the range and performance is similar to the 2019 specifications.
3.) When your reservation comes up you will get an email from Tesla and you can purchase either the dual or tri but you have one week to finalize your decision and put down $2500 non refundable deposit before they move to the next batch of reservation numbers. Tesla will only contact the next batch when they think they can deliver the vehicle in 6 months from order.
4.) Tesla will make 150k units in late 2023 through 2024 and 250k units in 2025 and 2026. So this pole only covers the first 550,000 units.
5.) While you may want to look at this from your position try to think about the average reservation holder position. Will that person have the money, will they choose another EV pick up , are they disenfranchised by Elon's antics, is the towing range performance a no go so they stick with ICE or ICE/hybrid, or did they just change their mind. I think the conversion rate will be higher for the first 50,000 units but again, think about the range of the poll.

So it's true, 'No QUAD for You!'

 

[Greshnab]

So it's true, 'No QUAD for You!'

I would have to see what the quad has that the tri doesn't and the price. However for me .. probably not.. 500 mile range advertised for the 3 motor is more than enough to meet my needs.. and a faster 0-60 isn't that big a deal to me.. what the tri had was PLENTY... i simply don't need more power and more range.. so the tri motor is fine... in point of fact if the 2 motor had 500 miles of range i might go for that one.

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