Conversion Rate through December 2026 and first 550,000 units -- what's your guesstimate?

[LDRHAWKE]

can’t tell if that is a “nope” of agreement or disagreement

all I meant was that, regardless of number or run rate of presses (or the line - we don’t know that presses are the bottleneck), the production rate of CTs for the NA market will be equal to the lower of assembly capacity or demand. (And that the relevant demand will at least partially ignore chasing a backlog of pre-orders.)

And while I’ll be happy to be wrong, and am admittedly a pessimist by nature (as well as immune to hopium), I don’t see any way Tesla is selling 250K CT’s in NA alone anytime in th next 3-ish years, even if they are capable of producing that many

SPOKEN LIKE A FORD 150 OWNER….?

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[cvalue13]

SPOKEN LIKE A FORD 150 OWNER….?

guilty as charged, I guess?

out of curiosity, what vehicle must I own instead before I have equal access to reasoned opinions (as opposed to ones dismissible out of hand)?

or should I instead, based on the identical logic, just interpret that nothing a Tesla owner says about a CT is reasoned (in virtue of their implied opposite biases)?

but:

To achieve a market penetration of 250K/yr in the near/medium term, one must assume that Tesla immediately offers and produces a majority number of an entry level awd pickup at 55K or lower.

the above i dont see being a view reliant on my ownership of an F-150

and the above, i didnt describe as a hill I would die upon:

But those are my background admitted biases, and for present purposes I'm willing to accept them all as incorrect and be left instead merely with the Model Y success story of market penetration rate as being a good proxy for the CT market penetration rate.

None of which is to say others don't have a better view. It's just that when I hear views of, say, CT will sell 250K units in 2023, or even 2024, I find it hard to ignore my skepticism.

Worth mentioning that my skepticism is also somewhat in the context of knowing that only a year ago, folks here were having serious conversations about Tesla producing 500,000 CT's in 2023

See that last bit in bold, and refer back to "or should I instead, based on the identical logic, just interpret that nothing a Tesla owner says about a CT is reasoned (in virtue of their implied opposite biases)?"

at the end of the day, you show me both:

(A) the CT's pricing, and​

(B) the relative numbers of available options Tesla actually produces for delivery​

And I'll adjust my views accordingly regarding the rate at which CT will achieve a 250K/yr level of market penetration.

If they produce 250K CTs all priced at $45K, it'll be real fast.

 

[AJE]

I think it's an invalid argument or pointless poll not knowing the true pricing. I personally think pricing will be much higher than what you have listed here. Perhaps they release the 3-4 motor variant with lower range and it's just shy of 80k but I don't think we see a 3-4 motor variant with 500+ miles of range at release. If we do I'd be shocked to see it qualify for the tax credit. I say this because the next closest competitor would be a lot more expensive.

We shall see if/when pricing and configurables are re-released.

I do not think we'll ever see a single motor variant. I think the first AWD variant will be near 80k. What I'm not clear on is if it's going to be 3-4 motors or 2 motors. Regardless, I think it's still close to if not more than 80k.

 

[jerhenderson]

OK folks concentrate. The validity of this poll requires some assumptions. You might not like them, but live with them. You can tell me I am full of it in your comments.

1.) The price of the tri motor is $79,420, The price of the dual motor is $59,420. The single motor is not available until 2027
2.) 4ws is standard, the tailgate is not as fancy, the middle front seat is an extra $1500 option otherwise the range and performance is similar to the 2019 specifications.
3.) When your reservation comes up you will get an email from Tesla and you can purchase either the dual or tri but you have one week to finalize your decision and put down $2500 non refundable deposit before they move to the next batch of reservation numbers. Tesla will only contact the next batch when they think they can deliver the vehicle in 6 months from order.
4.) Tesla will make 150k units in late 2023 through 2024 and 250k units in 2025 and 2026. So this pole only covers the first 550,000 units.
5.) While you may want to look at this from your position try to think about the average reservation holder position. Will that person have the money, will they choose another EV pick up , are they disenfranchised by Elon's antics, is the towing range performance a no go so they stick with ICE or ICE/hybrid, or did they just change their mind. I think the conversion rate will be higher for the first 50,000 units but again, think about the range of the poll.

I'm in the first 150k so I like your analysis.

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