Conversion Rate through December 2026 and first 550,000 units -- what's your guesstimate?

[cvalue13]

Slightly less than 60% so far. Anybody know conversion rates for Rivian or Lightning $100 reservations?

W lightning, has d to really compare

orders only opened in NA, and stopped taking orders at 150,000

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[Jhodgesatmb]

Initial pricing.

What was the initial price on the first roadster?
What was the initial price on the S?

I think, just my opinion, it will take awhile for Tesla to streamline the manufacturing process on the Cybertruck, thus the initial price is bound to be higher than it might be after they smooth out all the rough edges. A new factory. A new model. New gigapresses. New stainless steel construction. Assuming Tesla will sell the Cybertruck with a positive profit margin for the jump, how can the price be as low as Model Y? Why not more like a Model S?

They would have factored all of that into their pricing. After all, this isn't their first rodeo; they have gone through all of those phases 5 times now. I remain hopeful that the only price differences, if any, will be from the rate of inflation or the cost of materials they didn't account for in supplier contracts.

 

[JoeRod97]

I would have to see what the quad has that the tri doesn't and the price. However for me .. probably not.. 500 mile range advertised for the 3 motor is more than enough to meet my needs.. and a faster 0-60 isn't that big a deal to me.. what the tri had was PLENTY... i simply don't need more power and more range.. so the tri motor is fine... in point of fact if the 2 motor had 500 miles of range i might go for that one.

I dont care if it has a lawnmower motor! I WANT MY CYBERTRUCK!!?

 

[charliemagpie]

Elon said scale to 250,000 takes about 6 months.

Why is the 2nd 9 ton installed already.

Yet, the conjecture is a long timeline to scale up.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

Elon said scale to 250,000 takes about 6 months.

Why is the 2nd 9 ton installed already.

Yet, the conjecture is a long timeline to scale up.

Each gigapress can supposedly put out about 250K castings a year at full speed. There are 2 castings per truck, so the most they could produce at speed with the 2 presses would be 250K.

It seems as though they have prepared (or are preparing) more foundations for 9KT gigapresses.

No one should be surprised at a slow ramp given the complete novelty of the Cybertruck. We can at least rejoice when the line becomes operational.

 

[charliemagpie]

60 to 90 seconds per casting

Take it as 90 seconds, and take 10% of the year as downtime.

=28,382,400 seconds, divided by 90 = 315,360 CT per year.

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go faster than 90 seconds, a little less downtime = 375,000 CT's per year, which is what Elon said.

 

[cvalue13]

Going back to first principles:

people are wild to think CT could have 200-375K market penetration in NA alone, anytime soon

Tesla won’t over-build the line to fill orders fast. Theyll build it for an expected demand at competition.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

Going back to first principles:

people are wild to think CT could have 200-375K market penetration in NA alone, anytime soon

Tesla won’t over-build the line to fill orders fast. Theyll build it for an expected demand at competition.

Nope. They will ramp to engineering safety in stages. We have heard that they have never gotten a gigapress to ‘capacity’ due to cooling issues.

 

[cvalue13]

Nope. They will ramp to engineering safety in stages. We have heard that they have never gotten a gigapress to ‘capacity’ due to cooling issues.

can’t tell if that is a “nope” of agreement or disagreement

all I meant was that, regardless of number or run rate of presses (or the line - we don’t know that presses are the bottleneck), the production rate of CTs for the NA market will be equal to the lower of assembly capacity or demand. (And that the relevant demand will at least partially ignore chasing a backlog of pre-orders.)

And while I’ll be happy to be wrong, and am admittedly a pessimist by nature (as well as immune to hopium), I don’t see any way Tesla is selling 250K CT’s in NA alone anytime in th next 3-ish years, even if they are capable of producing that many

 

[Greshnab]

can’t tell if that is a “nope” of agreement or disagreement

all I meant was that, regardless of number or run rate of presses (or the line - we don’t know that presses are the bottleneck), the production rate of CTs for the NA market will be equal to the lower of assembly capacity or demand. (And that the relevant demand will at least partially ignore chasing a backlog of pre-orders.)

And while I’ll be happy to be wrong, and am admittedly a pessimist by nature (as well as immune to hopium), I don’t see any way Tesla is selling 250K CT’s in NA alone anytime in th next 3-ish years, even if they are capable of producing that many

without knowing the actual pricing points how can anyone make a guess about that.. if they bring in an entry level awd pickup at 55k.. I think they will sell all they can build!.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

can’t tell if that is a “nope” of agreement or disagreement

all I meant was that, regardless of number or run rate of presses (or the line - we don’t know that presses are the bottleneck), the production rate of CTs for the NA market will be equal to the lower of assembly capacity or demand. (And that the relevant demand will at least partially ignore chasing a backlog of pre-orders.)

And while I’ll be happy to be wrong, and am admittedly a pessimist by nature (as well as immune to hopium), I don’t see any way Tesla is selling 250K CT’s in NA alone anytime in th next 3-ish years, even if they are capable of producing that many

OK. I read your comment as Tesla going entirely by demand and not be safety. Elon has always said, about all of their vehicles/manufacturing, that they will build as many as are ordered (but, as you say, not to exceed a certain number). You are also right (I believe) that we do not know what the limiting material/manufacturing factor is. I was talking about castings because @charliemagpie talked about it.

 

[cvalue13]

without knowing the actual pricing points how can anyone make a guess about that.. if they bring in an entry level awd pickup at 55k.. I think they will sell all they can build!.

But I'm already assuming Tesla immediately offers and produces a majority number of an entry level awd pickup at 55K. Without these assumptions, the CT could never achieve significant market penetration.

Analysts have backed into Ford's data to arrive at an average sales price of F-series (not F-150) at ~$49,000. To achieve an average sales price of $49,000, Ford is selling a lot of F-150 entry models.

Just for some bearing, here are the Edmunds MSRP VS Invoice stats for the 2022 F-150 model offerings:

Trims	MSRP	Invoice Price	Edmunds Suggested
XL	$40,715	$38,963	$38,183
XLT Most Popular	$45,910	$43,042	$43,040
Lariat	$53,110	$49,774	$49,771
Tremor	$55,265	$51,789	$51,254
King Ranch	$61,465	$57,586	$59,155
Platinum	$64,245	$60,186	$61,827
Raptor	$71,700	$67,156	$70,809
Limited	$78,770	$73,767	$73,762

Surveying the above, one can get a sense for the distribution of F-150 model sales. Bearing in mind this ~$49,000 average sales price for F-150s:

True F-150 Annual Total Sales For Proxy:

People (and media outlets) regularly confuse annual F-series sales with F-150 sales. Ford doesn’t break out its sales of F-series between F-150’s and SuperDuty trucks. So you'll see people (and media outlets) saying e.g., "Ford sold X F-150's last year" but unless they show something like the below work, they are confusing/misinterpreting Ford's released sales data.​

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Because Ford doesn't break out its sales of F-series, you can back into an estimate of F-150 sales (excluding SuperDuty sales) by making some assumptions based on Ford's released production numbers between F-150 and SuperDuty, like so:​

• Ford has sold 382K F-series (F-150+SuperDuty) through 2nd Quarter of ’23 in the U.S
• Through 2nd Quarter, Ford has produced in the U.S. 336K F-150s and 145K SuperDuty, or about 70% F-150s of the total produced F-series trucks
• Assuming that production ratio reflects the ratio of U.S. sales of F-series, that equates to 234K F-150 sales in the U.S. through 2nd Q ’23, or an extrapolated 460K F-150s to be sold in U.S. through ’23 YE.

Granted that one could (and people here often do) next argue that the CT will e.g., eat into SuperDuty as well as e.g., Ranger sales – but that’s also true of the F-150 itself, so for present back-of-napkin using F-150’s as a proxy goal of what the most successful sales of CT could look like.​

Granted also that one could (and people here often do) next say that CT will be eating into not only Ford but also Chevy, GMC, etc., sales – but here again, that’s also true of the F-150 itself, so again for present back-of-napkin using F-150’s as a proxy goal of what the most successful sales of CT could look like.​

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So then, assuming the CT is capable of displacing and so ultimately mirroring the F-150 as the most successful full-sized truck sold in the U.S., we’re looking at ~460K annual sales at an average sales price of ~$49,000 once market penetration/displacement is achieved.​

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The question then becomes how long it will take for the CT to achieve that level of market penetration.​

Model Y as a Market Penetration Model:

Let's take the Model Y as a rough proxy for time to market penetration, which as of this year is the bestselling car in the U.S. On that metric, no question the Model Y is indicative of Tesla's theoretical ability to overtake market with a vehicle, and if Tesla manages with the CT a similar degree and rate of market penetration it'll look like a 'success case'.​

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Although Tesla doesn't break out Model Y US sales, analysts track vehicle registrations in US to determine annual U.S. sales. On that method:​

• Model Y in 2023 (1Q stub/current year): 93K (or 400K extrapolation)
• in 2022: 252K
• in 2021: 190K
• in 2020: 84K (3Q stub/release year)

Pausing right there, if all we were to do is assume that the Model Y penetration over time is a good proxy for the CT penetration, and further assume that Model Y 2020 is a good proxy for CT 2023 production, that puts us at 2025-2026 before CT is penetrating at a level of ~250K/year.​

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But one could argue that for several reasons the CT penetration may be slower than Model Y penetration, e.g.:​

• the Model Y styling is notoriously neutral, reducing uptake to a matter of performance - whereas the CT styling is notoriously edgy and divisive
• the Model Y uptake in US has been disproportionately urban and coastal where sedans prevail - whereas the CT is facing a TAM that leans more U.S. interior and rural
• pickup truck buyers are more brand-tribal than sedan buyers
• etc., etc.

I'm not suggesting there aren't counter arguments to each of the above, only that they can't be dismissed out of hand and the proof of the pudding will be in the eating of it.​

Price and Unit Availability as the Ultimate Unknown:

Whether or not one is empathetic with the Model Y being a good or poor maket penetration model, one thing seems uncontroversial: the Model Y's market penetration has ridden on the back of its entry cost. The explosion of Model Y deliveries is widely attributed to its price reduction, and similarly it's increase in penetration since 2020 attributable to the availability of lower cost units (availability being different from whether it is offered for sale).​

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So this comes back to the beginning:​

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To achieve a market penetration of 250K/yr in the near/medium term, one must assume that Tesla immediately offers and produces a majority number of an entry level awd pickup at 55K or lower.​

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And, in my admitted pessimism, even if I assume the above I don't see the CT achieving market penetration at a rate that is materially greater than has the Model Y.​

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And truth be known, I do think both that a material segment of the truck market will be slower to uptake BEV trucks than BEV sedans, that the CT styling will be an impediment to a large segment of the U.S. truck buying market, and that I'm hopeful but pessimistic that Tesla will offer not just a $55K model early on, but maybe more skeptically offer those units in a material/majority production fashion needed to accelerate market penetration at a rate similar to a Model Y.​

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But those are my background admitted biases, and for present purposes I'm willing to accept them all as incorrect and be left instead merely with the Model Y success story of market penetration rate as being a good proxy for the CT market penetration rate.​

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None of which is to say others don't have a better view. It's just that when I hear views of, say, CT will sell 250K units in 2023, or even 2024, I find it hard to ignore my skepticism.

Worth mentioning that my skepticism is also somewhat in the context of knowing that only a year ago, folks here were having serious conversations about Tesla producing 500,000 CT's in 2023

With so much hopium in the air, I find it hard to sort the wheat from the chaff

 

[Easyejl]

Agree on the Dual motor being most popular trim.

I went with 60%. I think it won't be price increase changing peoples minds since I think we will be within 10% of reveal.

I believe that government fiscal tightening and fear of recession will lead to tighter family budgets. Interest rates will take many out. Unfortunately time itself will change peoples personal situations, health and even death. Lastly many placed multiple order with hope of flipping and that will prove difficult and will have to cancel.

I think this is the real key, how many people that put down a reservation earlier are in a better (or worse) financial situation than they were in at the time of putting down that reservation.

 

[Crissa]

Each gigapress can supposedly put out about 250K castings a year at full speed. There are 2 castings per truck, so the most they could produce at speed with the 2 presses would be 250K.

It seems as though they have prepared (or are preparing) more foundations for 9KT gigapresses.

No one should be surprised at a slow ramp given the complete novelty of the Cybertruck. We can at least rejoice when the line becomes operational.

There's been no indication they need a 9k for the front casting, tho.

Nope. They will ramp to engineering safety in stages. We have heard that they have never gotten a gigapress to ‘capacity’ due to cooling issues.

That was before the new cooling tanks they began to use in Austin. The ones they haven't talked about.

-Crissa

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

There's been no indication they need a 9k for the front casting, tho.



That was before the new cooling tanks they began to use in Austin. The ones they haven't talked about.

-Crissa

That is true, but we never heard that they had/have achieved rated throughput since then, have we? Also, there was some discussion last year about the failure rate of the IDRA-made castings. Do we know anything about that as it would surely affect run rate.

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