Cybertruck reservation order number -- how to tell your place in line

[Easyejl]

True. And if the Cybertruck reservation backlog is at all like the highly anticipated Model 3 release, people will be making new reservations faster than people with early reservations can cancel them. The total number of reservations will grow as these gleaming masterpieces start to get in actual customers hands.

Things are gonna snowball, but early reservationists will be the ones sitting pretty. That's not to say that waiting 6 months for your number to come up won't seem like 6 years!

I'm around 100,000 in, I think that means moderate odds of a 2024 delivery. I bought an Audi Q4 etron last year to tide me over, so i'm not in a huge rush, but will take it the first day I can

Sponsored

 

[Crissa]

Also for fleet usage, quite a lot was based on the $39995 price of the entry model. If I recall, there's a fair number that have reservations on 20+ units.

While that may be, only a tiny minority of orders were for the single-motor version.

Tesla hasn't ever had a drop-out of 30%, so why would you expect twice that for the Cybertruck?

-Crissa

 

[HaulingAss]

While that may be, only a tiny minority of orders were for the single-motor version.

Tesla hasn't ever had a drop-out of 30%, so why would you expect twice that for the Cybertruck?

-Crissa

Well, we didn't get to look at the reservation drop out data on the Model 3, but my impression was that it was higher than 30%. Not that it matters, because new reservations were being accepted faster than some were dropped.

The drop out rate is difficult to predict because new car sales are fickle and highly dependent upon pricing, interest rates and public perception of the economy and job security. Certainly, there are a lot of reservations made by people who either failed to save the required amount of money between making the reservation and their number coming up or who lost their job or didn't get the job they were counting on or who simply reserved more than they are prepared to buy.

The last group (one buyer with multiple reservations) is of the most interest to me because it remains to be seen (for sure) how Tesla will handle people who have 2-4 early reservations. Will they deliver one and move onto later reservationists or deliver the entire batch before moving on to others with higher reservation numbers? This could make quite a difference in how soon our number comes up.

 

[Crissa]

We have about as much information now as we did for the Model 3 reservations.

So barring any information from Tesla directly, we'll have about the same accuracy... as in, not great, but we have what we have.

And prior estimates had the dropout as less than 30% of the reservations. Current model 3/Y dropouts are in the low single digits.

-Crissa

 

[DryCabin]

Two orders.
116354127 - 112744100 =3,610,027 No data available. 10/2020 estimated date

113208973- 112744100= 464,873 Dual Motor, FSD 5/2022 estimated date

 

[KHappe]

Start playing with CyberTruck analysis program again.
Here are the latest results.

I
Using Tracker data from middle of June 2023

CyberTruck tracker data analysis.

Determining place in line by Qtr

Calculations for 2019.Q4 and 2020.Q1 are not very accurate. Post 2020.Q1 the calculations are better, but are still rough.
From that point we use Tesla's quarterly delivery numbers to better adjust the starting position for each quarter.
Assumption that some orders are cancelled, adding a 5% estimate on the number of deliveries cancelled per quarter.

Including a break out of the Non Us and Tx totals. These values may adjust position in line.
The Tx based reservations number have a higher chance of being moved up in the line, due to Tesla's standard practices of delivering first to local locations first.
However, the adjustments should not be significant.

The total for Tx is a running total.

Quarter: 2019 Q4
112,000 Deliveries for quarter. ( 3/Y: 92,550 S/X: 19,450) Data provided by Tesla.
Tracker reservation numbers: ~112744124 thru ~113200332 =
~ 456,208 Possible reservations.
1,850 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 1,386 Non US reservations.
- 5,600 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 449,222 Cyber truck orders for quarter.
= 0 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.


Quarter: 2020 Q1
88,400 Deliveries for quarter. ( 3/Y: 76,200 S/X: 12,200) Data provided by Tesla.
Tracker reservation numbers: ~113200353 thru ~113367251 =
~ 166,898 Possible reservations.
2,064 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 171 Non US reservations.
- 4,420 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 160,921 Cyber truck orders for quarter.

+ 449,222 Previous CT orders.
- 112,000 Previous Qtr deliveries.
= 498,143 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.


Quarter: 2020 Q2
90,650 Deliveries for quarter. ( 3/Y: 80,050 S/X: 10,600) Data provided by Tesla.
Tracker reservation numbers: ~113367312 thru ~113597270 =
~ 229,958 Possible reservations.
2,364 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 263 Non US reservations.
- 4,532 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 223,606 Cyber truck orders for quarter.

+ 610,143 Previous CT orders.
- 88,400 Previous Qtr deliveries.
= 745,349 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.


Quarter: 2020 Q3
139,300 Deliveries for quarter. ( 3/Y: 124,100 S/X: 15,200) Data provided by Tesla.
Tracker reservation numbers: ~113597364 thru ~114005887 =
~ 408,523 Possible reservations.
2,647 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 150 Non US reservations.
- 6,965 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 399,588 Cyber truck orders for quarter.

+ 833,749 Previous CT orders.
- 90,650 Previous Qtr deliveries.
= 1,142,687 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.


Quarter: 2020 Q4
180,570 Deliveries for quarter. ( 3/Y: 161,650 S/X: 18,920) Data provided by Tesla.
Tracker reservation numbers: ~114005887 thru ~114335662 =
~ 329,775 Possible reservations.
2,852 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 100 Non US reservations.
- 9,028 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 318,677 Cyber truck orders for quarter.

+ 1,233,337 Previous CT orders.
- 139,300 Previous Qtr deliveries.
= 1,412,714 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.


Quarter: 2021 Q1
184,800 Deliveries for quarter. ( 3/Y: 182,780 S/X: 2,020) Data provided by Tesla.
Tracker reservation numbers: ~114335662 thru ~114730961 =
~ 395,299 Possible reservations.
3,066 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 100 Non US reservations.
- 9,240 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 383,889 Cyber truck orders for quarter.

+ 1,552,014 Previous CT orders.
- 180,570 Previous Qtr deliveries.
= 1,755,333 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.


Quarter: 2021 Q2
201,250 Deliveries for quarter. ( 3/Y: 199,360 S/X: 1,890) Data provided by Tesla.
Tracker reservation numbers: ~114731065 thru ~115239436 =
~ 508,371 Possible reservations.
3,300 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 138 Non US reservations.
- 10,062 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 496,001 Cyber truck orders for quarter.

+ 1,935,903 Previous CT orders.
- 184,800 Previous Qtr deliveries.
= 2,247,104 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.


Quarter: 2021 Q3
241,300 Deliveries for quarter. ( 3/Y: 232,025 S/X: 9,275) Data provided by Tesla.
Tracker reservation numbers: ~115239499 thru ~115750658 =
~ 511,159 Possible reservations.
3,477 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 96 Non US reservations.
- 12,065 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 496,690 Cyber truck orders for quarter.

+ 2,431,904 Previous CT orders.
- 201,250 Previous Qtr deliveries.
= 2,727,344 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.


Quarter: 2021 Q4
308,600 Deliveries for quarter. ( 3/Y: 296,850 S/X: 11,750) Data provided by Tesla.
Tracker reservation numbers: ~115750778 thru ~116307813 =
~ 557,035 Possible reservations.
3,596 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 77 Non US reservations.
- 15,430 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 539,124 Cyber truck orders for quarter.

+ 2,928,594 Previous CT orders.
- 241,300 Previous Qtr deliveries.
= 3,226,418 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.


Quarter: 2022 Q1
310,048 Deliveries for quarter. ( 3/Y: 295,324 S/X: 14,724) Data provided by Tesla.
Tracker reservation numbers: ~116308235 thru ~116880204 =
~ 571,969 Possible reservations.
3,652 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 35 Non US reservations.
- 15,502 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 553,951 Cyber truck orders for quarter.

+ 3,467,718 Previous CT orders.
- 308,600 Previous Qtr deliveries.
= 3,713,069 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.


Quarter: 2022 Q2
254,695 Deliveries for quarter. ( 3/Y: 238,533 S/X: 16,162) Data provided by Tesla.
Tracker reservation numbers: ~116882431 thru ~117490485 =
~ 608,054 Possible reservations.
3,732 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 49 Non US reservations.
- 12,735 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 592,754 Cyber truck orders for quarter.

+ 4,021,669 Previous CT orders.
- 310,048 Previous Qtr deliveries.
= 4,304,375 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.


Quarter: 2022 Q3
343,830 Deliveries for quarter. ( 3/Y: 325,158 S/X: 18,672) Data provided by Tesla.
Tracker reservation numbers: ~117490970 thru ~117947824 =
~ 456,854 Possible reservations.
3,763 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 10 Non US reservations.
- 17,192 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 437,087 Cyber truck orders for quarter.

+ 4,614,423 Previous CT orders.
- 254,695 Previous Qtr deliveries.
= 4,796,815 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.


Quarter: 2022 Q4
405,278 Deliveries for quarter. ( 3/Y: 388,131 S/X: 17,147) Data provided by Tesla.
Tracker reservation numbers: ~117948189 thru ~118267942 =
~ 319,753 Possible reservations.
3,788 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 7 Non US reservations.
- 20,264 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 296,907 Cyber truck orders for quarter.

+ 5,051,510 Previous CT orders.
- 343,830 Previous Qtr deliveries.
= 5,004,587 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.


Quarter: 2023 Q1
422,875 Deliveries for quarter. ( 3/Y: 412,180 S/X: 10,695) Data provided by Tesla.
Tracker reservation numbers: ~118269364 thru ~118840092 =
~ 570,728 Possible reservations.
3,811 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 22 Non US reservations.
- 21,144 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 546,980 Cyber truck orders for quarter.

+ 5,348,417 Previous CT orders.
- 405,278 Previous Qtr deliveries.
= 5,490,119 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.


Quarter: 2023 Q2
0 Deliveries for quarter. ( 3/Y: 0 S/X: 0) Data provided by Tesla.
Tracker reservation numbers: ~118840271 thru ~119282704 =
~ 442,433 Possible reservations.
3,828 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 9 Non US reservations.
- 0 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 439,820 Cyber truck orders for quarter.

+ 5,895,397 Previous CT orders.
- 422,875 Previous Qtr deliveries.
= 5,912,342 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.

 

[Warbird]

FYI: I could not get the "Reservation Tracker Analysis" spreadsheet to work using Chrome. I had to download the spreadsheet sort it by RN and find one close to my RN, to find my "Estimated Delivery Month", of Sep 2024.

 

[Crissa]

FYI: I could not get the "Reservation Tracker Analysis" spreadsheet to work using Chrome. I had to download the spreadsheet sort it by RN and find one close to my RN, to find my "Estimated Delivery Month", of Sep 2024.

You need to open the Sheets applet if you want it to work in Chrome, and do it on a desktop. Which is basically like downloading it.

-Crissa

 

[AlexcyberTX]

Any one help me out on giving me a make believe date when my Cybertruck will be delivered ? Looks like I’m number 26,922 for a tri-motor in Houston tx I reserved about 4 hours after they became available. I’m willing to switch to which ever motor would be manufactured first. Thanks in advance

 

[CT Owner Vito]

Well, we didn't get to look at the reservation drop out data on the Model 3, but my impression was that it was higher than 30%. Not that it matters, because new reservations were being accepted faster than some were dropped.

The drop out rate is difficult to predict because new car sales are fickle and highly dependent upon pricing, interest rates and public perception of the economy and job security. Certainly, there are a lot of reservations made by people who either failed to save the required amount of money between making the reservation and their number coming up or who lost their job or didn't get the job they were counting on or who simply reserved more than they are prepared to buy.

The last group (one buyer with multiple reservations) is of the most interest to me because it remains to be seen (for sure) how Tesla will handle people who have 2-4 early reservations. Will they deliver one and move onto later reservationists or deliver the entire batch before moving on to others with higher reservation numbers? This could make quite a difference in how soon our number comes up.

I have multiple orders. Each one has its own number. I would expect they will get called in order, as each one reaches the front of the line.

 

[Paula Arnold]

If they are going by region would they not just ask first if anyone is willing to fly to the factory and just drive it home from there?
I’m proudly Canadian which is more than likely bumped to the bottom of the list. I reserved in 2019 like everyone else and have been waiting patiently. Now that I’m more or less retired I’m more than willing to fly in to pick up my pickup from the factory and just drive it home. I’d have to pack my fishing pole for the adventure and it might take me a month to get home but who cares. I’ve got nothing better to do and all day to do it

 

[Warbird]

Start playing with CyberTruck analysis program again.
Here are the latest results.

I'm using the Tracker data from earlier in the week.

CyberTruck tracker data analysis.

Determining place in line by Qtr

Calculations for 2019.Q4 and 2020.Q1 are not very accurate. Post 2020.Q1 the calculations are better, but are still rough.
From that point we use Tesla's quarterly delivery numbers to better adjust the starting position for each quarter.
Assumption that some orders are cancelled, adding a 5% estimate on the number of deliveries cancelled per quarter.

Including a break out of the Non Us and Tx totals. These values may adjust position in line.
The Tx based reservations number have a higher chance of being moved up in the line, due to Tesla's standard practices of delivering first to local locations first.
However, the adjustments should not be significant.

The total for Tx is a running total.

Quarter: 2019 Q4
Tracker reservation numbers: ~112744124 thru ~113200332 =
~ 456,208 Possible reservations.
1,850 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 1,386 Non US reservations.
= 0 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.

Quarter: 2020 Q1
Tracker reservation numbers: ~113200353 thru ~113367251 =
~ 166,898 Possible reservations.
2,064 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 171 Non US reservations.
- 88,400 Deliveries for quarter. Data provided by Tesla.
- 4,420 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 337,222 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.

Quarter: 2020 Q2
Tracker reservation numbers: ~113367312 thru ~113597270 =
~ 229,958 Possible reservations.
2,364 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 263 Non US reservations.
- 90,650 Deliveries for quarter. Data provided by Tesla.
- 4,532 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 411,129 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.

Quarter: 2020 Q3
Tracker reservation numbers: ~113597364 thru ~114005887 =
~ 408,523 Possible reservations.
2,647 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 150 Non US reservations.
- 139,300 Deliveries for quarter. Data provided by Tesla.
- 6,965 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 545,642 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.

Quarter: 2020 Q4
Tracker reservation numbers: ~114005887 thru ~114335662 =
~ 329,775 Possible reservations.
2,852 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 100 Non US reservations.
- 180,570 Deliveries for quarter. Data provided by Tesla.
- 9,028 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 807,750 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.

Quarter: 2021 Q1
Tracker reservation numbers: ~114335662 thru ~114730961 =
~ 395,299 Possible reservations.
3,066 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 100 Non US reservations.
- 184,800 Deliveries for quarter. Data provided by Tesla.
- 9,240 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 947,827 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.

Quarter: 2021 Q2
Tracker reservation numbers: ~114731065 thru ~115239436 =
~ 508,371 Possible reservations.
3,300 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 138 Non US reservations.
- 201,250 Deliveries for quarter. Data provided by Tesla.
- 10,062 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 1,148,986 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.

Quarter: 2021 Q3
Tracker reservation numbers: ~115239499 thru ~115750658 =
~ 511,159 Possible reservations.
3,477 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 96 Non US reservations.
- 241,300 Deliveries for quarter. Data provided by Tesla.
- 12,065 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 1,445,907 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.

Quarter: 2021 Q4
Tracker reservation numbers: ~115750778 thru ~116307813 =
~ 557,035 Possible reservations.
3,596 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 77 Non US reservations.
- 308,600 Deliveries for quarter. Data provided by Tesla.
- 15,430 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 1,703,605 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.

Quarter: 2022 Q1
Tracker reservation numbers: ~116308235 thru ~116880204 =
~ 571,969 Possible reservations.
3,652 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 35 Non US reservations.
- 310,048 Deliveries for quarter. Data provided by Tesla.
- 15,502 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 1,936,533 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.

Quarter: 2022 Q2
Tracker reservation numbers: ~116882431 thru ~117490485 =
~ 608,054 Possible reservations.
3,732 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 49 Non US reservations.
- 254,695 Deliveries for quarter. Data provided by Tesla.
- 12,735 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 2,182,917 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.

Quarter: 2022 Q3
Tracker reservation numbers: ~117490970 thru ~117947824 =
~ 456,854 Possible reservations.
3,763 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 10 Non US reservations.
- 343,830 Deliveries for quarter. Data provided by Tesla.
- 17,192 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 2,523,492 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.

Quarter: 2022 Q4
Tracker reservation numbers: ~117948189 thru ~118267942 =
~ 319,753 Possible reservations.
3,788 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 7 Non US reservations.
- 405,278 Deliveries for quarter. Data provided by Tesla.
- 20,264 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 2,619,314 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.

Quarter: 2023 Q1
Tracker reservation numbers: ~118269364 thru ~118840092 =
~ 570,728 Possible reservations.
3,811 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 22 Non US reservations.
- 422,875 Deliveries for quarter. Data provided by Tesla.
- 21,144 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 2,513,518 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.

Quarter: 2023 Q2
Tracker reservation numbers: ~118840271 thru ~119282704 =
~ 442,433 Possible reservations.
3,828 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 9 Non US reservations.
- 0 Deliveries for quarter. Data provided by Tesla.
- 0 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 2,640,205 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.

Can you please explain what you are communicating here? Are you saying that for instance, if you ordered during 2019Q4 your reservation number will be 337,222 or lower? Why is Texas listed separately? How did you get this data? Just curious why not just subtract 112744124? from your reservation number as recommended else where and get the exact place in line? I think I'm missing the regional component as well? Thanks.

 

[Crissa]

Can you please explain what you are communicating here? Are you saying that for instance, if you ordered during 2019Q4 your reservation number will be 337,222 or lower? Why is Texas listed separately? How did you get this data? Just curious why not just subtract 112744124? from your reservation number as recommended else where and get the exact place in line? I think I'm missing the regional component as well? Thanks.

Guessing. There's alot of ways to come up with a guess.

-Crissa

 

[KHappe]

Can you please explain what you are communicating here? Are you saying that for instance, if you ordered during 2019Q4 your reservation number will be 337,222 or lower? Why is Texas listed separately? How did you get this data? Just curious why not just subtract 112744124? from your reservation number as recommended else where and get the exact place in line? I think I'm missing the regional component as well? Thanks.

I reformatted the output of the program to hopefully make more understandable.
Updated results below. Hopefully it makes it more readable.

So if you just subtract 112744100 from your reservation number. It will give you your place in line for all vehicle types. Model Y, 3 etc.

So, the analysis takes into account the number of auto deliveries published by Tesla. It subtracts the Tesla delivery numbers from each quarter, to get your place in line for just CyberTrucks.

It also tracks Foreign and Texas reservations. The Foreign reservations will be probably moved to the back of the list. While the Texas reservations could be moved up in the list. The foreign and Texas reservations adjustments shouldnt be significant. But I included them for more data.


Analysis results

Quarter: 2019 Q4
112,000 Deliveries for quarter. ( 3/Y: 92,550 S/X: 19,450) Data provided by Tesla.
Tracker reservation numbers: ~112744124 thru ~113200332 =
~ 456,208 Possible reservations.
1,850 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 1,386 Non US reservations.
- 5,600 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 449,222 Cyber truck orders for quarter.
= 0 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.


Quarter: 2020 Q1
88,400 Deliveries for quarter. ( 3/Y: 76,200 S/X: 12,200) Data provided by Tesla.
Tracker reservation numbers: ~113200353 thru ~113367251 =
~ 166,898 Possible reservations.
2,064 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 171 Non US reservations.
- 4,420 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 160,921 Cyber truck orders for quarter.

+ 449,222 Previous CT orders.
- 112,000 Previous Qtr deliveries.
= 498,143 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.


Quarter: 2020 Q2
90,650 Deliveries for quarter. ( 3/Y: 80,050 S/X: 10,600) Data provided by Tesla.
Tracker reservation numbers: ~113367312 thru ~113597270 =
~ 229,958 Possible reservations.
2,364 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 263 Non US reservations.
- 4,532 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 223,606 Cyber truck orders for quarter.

+ 610,143 Previous CT orders.
- 88,400 Previous Qtr deliveries.
= 745,349 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.


Quarter: 2020 Q3
139,300 Deliveries for quarter. ( 3/Y: 124,100 S/X: 15,200) Data provided by Tesla.
Tracker reservation numbers: ~113597364 thru ~114005887 =
~ 408,523 Possible reservations.
2,647 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 150 Non US reservations.
- 6,965 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 399,588 Cyber truck orders for quarter.

+ 833,749 Previous CT orders.
- 90,650 Previous Qtr deliveries.
= 1,142,687 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.


Quarter: 2020 Q4
180,570 Deliveries for quarter. ( 3/Y: 161,650 S/X: 18,920) Data provided by Tesla.
Tracker reservation numbers: ~114005887 thru ~114335662 =
~ 329,775 Possible reservations.
2,852 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 100 Non US reservations.
- 9,028 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 318,677 Cyber truck orders for quarter.

+ 1,233,337 Previous CT orders.
- 139,300 Previous Qtr deliveries.
= 1,412,714 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.


Quarter: 2021 Q1
184,800 Deliveries for quarter. ( 3/Y: 182,780 S/X: 2,020) Data provided by Tesla.
Tracker reservation numbers: ~114335662 thru ~114730961 =
~ 395,299 Possible reservations.
3,066 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 100 Non US reservations.
- 9,240 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 383,889 Cyber truck orders for quarter.

+ 1,552,014 Previous CT orders.
- 180,570 Previous Qtr deliveries.
= 1,755,333 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.


Quarter: 2021 Q2
201,250 Deliveries for quarter. ( 3/Y: 199,360 S/X: 1,890) Data provided by Tesla.
Tracker reservation numbers: ~114731065 thru ~115239436 =
~ 508,371 Possible reservations.
3,300 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 138 Non US reservations.
- 10,062 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 496,001 Cyber truck orders for quarter.

+ 1,935,903 Previous CT orders.
- 184,800 Previous Qtr deliveries.
= 2,247,104 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.


Quarter: 2021 Q3
241,300 Deliveries for quarter. ( 3/Y: 232,025 S/X: 9,275) Data provided by Tesla.
Tracker reservation numbers: ~115239499 thru ~115750658 =
~ 511,159 Possible reservations.
3,477 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 96 Non US reservations.
- 12,065 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 496,690 Cyber truck orders for quarter.

+ 2,431,904 Previous CT orders.
- 201,250 Previous Qtr deliveries.
= 2,727,344 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.


Quarter: 2021 Q4
308,600 Deliveries for quarter. ( 3/Y: 296,850 S/X: 11,750) Data provided by Tesla.
Tracker reservation numbers: ~115750778 thru ~116307813 =
~ 557,035 Possible reservations.
3,596 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 77 Non US reservations.
- 15,430 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 539,124 Cyber truck orders for quarter.

+ 2,928,594 Previous CT orders.
- 241,300 Previous Qtr deliveries.
= 3,226,418 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.


Quarter: 2022 Q1
310,048 Deliveries for quarter. ( 3/Y: 295,324 S/X: 14,724) Data provided by Tesla.
Tracker reservation numbers: ~116308235 thru ~116880204 =
~ 571,969 Possible reservations.
3,652 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 35 Non US reservations.
- 15,502 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 553,951 Cyber truck orders for quarter.

+ 3,467,718 Previous CT orders.
- 308,600 Previous Qtr deliveries.
= 3,713,069 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.


Quarter: 2022 Q2
254,695 Deliveries for quarter. ( 3/Y: 238,533 S/X: 16,162) Data provided by Tesla.
Tracker reservation numbers: ~116882431 thru ~117490485 =
~ 608,054 Possible reservations.
3,732 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 49 Non US reservations.
- 12,735 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 592,754 Cyber truck orders for quarter.

+ 4,021,669 Previous CT orders.
- 310,048 Previous Qtr deliveries.
= 4,304,375 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.


Quarter: 2022 Q3
343,830 Deliveries for quarter. ( 3/Y: 325,158 S/X: 18,672) Data provided by Tesla.
Tracker reservation numbers: ~117490970 thru ~117947824 =
~ 456,854 Possible reservations.
3,763 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 10 Non US reservations.
- 17,192 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 437,087 Cyber truck orders for quarter.

+ 4,614,423 Previous CT orders.
- 254,695 Previous Qtr deliveries.
= 4,796,815 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.


Quarter: 2022 Q4
405,278 Deliveries for quarter. ( 3/Y: 388,131 S/X: 17,147) Data provided by Tesla.
Tracker reservation numbers: ~117948189 thru ~118267942 =
~ 319,753 Possible reservations.
3,788 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 7 Non US reservations.
- 20,264 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 296,907 Cyber truck orders for quarter.

+ 5,051,510 Previous CT orders.
- 343,830 Previous Qtr deliveries.
= 5,004,587 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.


Quarter: 2023 Q1
422,875 Deliveries for quarter. ( 3/Y: 412,180 S/X: 10,695) Data provided by Tesla.
Tracker reservation numbers: ~118269364 thru ~118840092 =
~ 570,728 Possible reservations.
3,811 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 22 Non US reservations.
- 21,144 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 546,980 Cyber truck orders for quarter.

+ 5,348,417 Previous CT orders.
- 405,278 Previous Qtr deliveries.
= 5,490,119 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.


Quarter: 2023 Q2
0 Deliveries for quarter. ( 3/Y: 0 S/X: 0) Data provided by Tesla.
Tracker reservation numbers: ~118840271 thru ~119282704 =
~ 442,433 Possible reservations.
3,828 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 9 Non US reservations.
- 0 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 439,820 Cyber truck orders for quarter.

+ 5,895,397 Previous CT orders.
- 422,875 Previous Qtr deliveries.
= 5,912,342 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.

 

[Crissa]

The reservation numbers also include solar and energy, I understand these are small numbers, but they have been adding up and they'll be making your error margins larger.

-Crissa

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