Musk responds to Cybertruck pricing and specs announcement question (8/23/23)

[Coolbreeze704]

Buying a good size sum tomorrow morn myself

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[TyPope]

Good News

June 2023 Tesla has 10 million NMC 4680 cells ready for CT and Y production!

Yeah!!

So

10 Milllion /2 = 5 million for the Y modle and 5 million for the CT

Now

The battery pack in the Model S consists of 7,104 individual 18650 lithium-ion cells arranged in 16 modules connected in parallel and series.

The CT should be the same if not more.

5 million / 7,104 = 703.82 CT can be built before production is halted.

So

I was way way off I estimated 600 CT could be manufactured before Tesla has to declare CT is not producible.

Im totally wrong and its 703 CT will be delivered to the public before production is halted.

Sorry About That

Tesla is not going to make any more 4680 batteries? Like, ever? That sucks. It's almost like Tesla should have thought about batteries when they started this hair-brained idea of making electric cars. I wonder if it's too late to just make them all gas...

 

[Coolbreeze704]

Tesla America
Again, buys cells from anyone that will sell EvBattery to them.
Truth
Tesla is not a EvBattery manufacturing company and this 10 million NMC 4680 cells was just a test not meant for production.
Problem
There are no NMC 4680 cell manufacturing plants. Tesla needs 5-10 Billion NMC 4680 cells.

Tesla Model Y AWD from Gig Texas uses 4680, so they are used for production.

 

[Crissa]

There are no NMC 4680 cell manufacturing plants. Tesla needs 5-10 Billion NMC 4680 cells.

There are two factories producing 4680s currently, and many under construction and validation.

https://twitter.com/search?q=4680 (from:tesla)

Giga Texas is the larger 4680 production facility, and it's completely owned and operated by Tesla. It had made ten million cells by July, enough for eleven thousand Cybertrucks. We can only wonder how fast it's ramping as they're adding more raw material processing on the site.

There's also a rumor that Tesla was expanding rather than capping the production of 4680 in Fremont. That's where the batteries going into the standard range Model Y are coming from, which is still being shipped. There are also plans to produce 4680 in the expansion at Nevada.

I don't know why you were assuming there were no manufacturing plants, or why you think they'd stopped.

-Crissa

 

[happy intruder]

I'm guessing the first ones off the line will be mid to high 70's... probably have some standard options.. little bit more than the initial 69,990 price tag. I'm totally guessing. But I feel as if this is a pretty fair assumption. Maybe i'll eat my hat though.

remember though, the 69.9k was for a tri-motor.......not dual......if dual now, thats a 20k increase in price.....big percentage increase, over 40%.....thats going to scare a lot of people

 

[happy intruder]

I don't get why so many people think the Cybertruck is going to be so much more expensive than when it was introduced. How much has the price gone up on other Teslas? Has it gone up at all? I think I paid the same for my 2023 MYLR that I paid for our 2020 MYLR... If not the same, then easily within 5% or so. Why would a 2019 Cybertruck (if you count the reveal price) cost so much more than a 2023?

thats a one on one comparison.....where I think the confusion come in is that Tesla announced 3 version a reveal: single motor, dual motor and tri-motor.......then later added the quad-motor.......and on top of that, they started changing things and dropping the single, changing the release order all then the speculation of pricing and configurations.......its a big cluster intercourse......nobody knows what gonna happen except Musk to some extent......but his promises are low on percentage being right......so it becomes a waiting game......I believe a dual motor at 70k plus will have a big drop out count......yea, many higher numbered people may benefit but the affordability of the vehicle will be out of range for some folks after 3.5 years of waiting and hoping

 

[TyPope]

thats a one on one comparison.....where I think the confusion come in is that Tesla announced 3 version a reveal: single motor, dual motor and tri-motor.......then later added the quad-motor.......and on top of that, they started changing things and dropping the single, changing the release order all then the speculation of pricing and configurations.......its a big cluster intercourse......nobody knows what gonna happen except Musk to some extent......but his promises are low on percentage being right......so it becomes a waiting game......I believe a dual motor at 70k plus will have a big drop out count......yea, many higher numbered people may benefit but the affordability of the vehicle will be out of range for some folks after 3.5 years of waiting and hoping

I'll give you increase potential for additional "things" like 4-wheel steering. But, it seems Tesla has been effective in cost cutting to the extent to almost make inflation null.

I think we'll see that there will be no quad motor version. Apparently, it isn't really needed for torque (see Tesla Semi) and other than precise individual wheel torque, offers not a whole lot of benefit unless Tesla splits motor capabilities between economy and torque... Two very torque motors for that quickness and pulling capability and then a pair of more efficient motors for, well, efficiency. You'd be able to run all 4 for speed runs.

But, alas, we don't know yet. I suspect the prices will be close to the advertised prices at least for dual and Tri unless Tesla go the prices down where an additional motor doesn't add much cost at which point, a single motor Cybertruck is no longer necessary and bragging rights go a long way.

 

[Crissa]

thats a one on one comparison.....where I think the confusion come in is that Tesla announced 3 version a reveal: single motor, dual motor and tri-motor.......then later added the quad-motor.......and on top of that, they started changing things and dropping the single, changing the release order all then the speculation of pricing and configurations.......its a big cluster intercourse......nobody knows what gonna happen except Musk to some extent......but his promises are low on percentage being right......so it becomes a waiting game......I believe a dual motor at 70k plus will have a big drop out count......yea, many higher numbered people may benefit but the affordability of the vehicle will be out of range for some folks after 3.5 years of waiting and hoping

They've never said they dropped any models.

However, with demand being what it is, the single-motor may not be gotten to for years (and orders canceled, like they did to the Y). Maybe even the tri-motor. No way to know until deliveries start and they tell us their plans. (Maybe even later. Took a year to tell everyone the Model Y RWD was canceled. And this last year, they brought it back in China!)

-Crissa

 

[FutureBoy]

I'm guessing the first ones off the line will be mid to high 70's... probably have some standard options.. little bit more than the initial 69,990 price tag. I'm totally guessing. But I feel as if this is a pretty fair assumption. Maybe i'll eat my hat though.

Interesting that people keep thinking that the CT price is going to be considerably higher than originally announced but all the other cars Tesla makes are getting cheaper and cheaper... We will have to see when the price actually gets announced.

 

[NoTime]

https://source.benchmarkminerals.co...mped-under-pressure-in-the-first-half-of-2023

 

[Tiberius]

It took Tesla 2 years to make those 10 million NMC 4680 cells.
Past
Tesla was never a EvBattery supplier. Tesla had Panasonic make EvBattery cells for Tesla and that was when prices of raw materials was cheap and Tesla was very low production rate.
Today
Tesla China
Buy cells from CATL and BYD and any China EvBattery manufacturers in China.
Tesla Germany
Again, buys cells from China.
Tesla America
Again, buys cells from anyone that will sell EvBattery to them.
Truth
Tesla is not a EvBattery manufacturing company and this 10 million NMC 4680 cells was just a test not meant for production.
Problem
There are no NMC 4680 cell manufacturing plants. Tesla needs 5-10 Billion NMC 4680 cells.

strange that they have raw material supply deals with at least four major suppliers, they have dedicated the entire NW portion of GF-Texas to nothing but 4680 production plus pack assembly.
GF-Texas has an entire plant dedicated to cathode production and they are building their own lithium refinery in Texas.
All of this is easily verifiable to prove that Tesla absolutely has manufacturing plants of their own for 4680 cells.

You are also mistaking what is needed for a 2170 pack and a 4680 pack. You are conflating two completely different cell form factors. Also mistaking the meaning of "pilot plant" and its current status.
It has been proven by physical teardown, the Model Y structural pack consists of 828 4680 cells, not 7104. The CT will not need anything like 7104 cells either - that would make the pack almost 700Kw pack. More likely it would be something <1000 cells to be around 120Kw
That is truth - but this time backed up by facts that can be verified.

 

[kbolt]

Interesting that people keep thinking that the CT price is going to be considerably higher than originally announced but all the other cars Tesla makes are getting cheaper and cheaper... We will have to see when the price actually gets announced.

You are wise beyond your years... and further so in comparison to the average Internet user.

 

[PilotPete]

The CT will not need anything like 7104 cells either - that would make the pack almost a 7 GIGAwatt pack (6,900Kw).

Yeah, but can you imagine the RANGE you would get!

 

[BayouCityBob]

Interesting that people keep thinking that the CT price is going to be considerably higher than originally announced but all the other cars Tesla makes are getting cheaper and cheaper... We will have to see when the price actually gets announced.

Let's see how pricing for that other Tesla revealed in 2019, the MY, has evolved:

Version	2019 Price	2019 Range	2023 Price	2023 Range
Standard	$39,000	230	N/A	N/A
LR RWD	$47,000	300	N/A	N/A
SR AWD	N/A	N/A	$47,000	280
LR AWD	$51,400	280	$50,490	330
Performance	$60,000	280	$54,490	303

If Model Y is a guide, more range, less cost at the high end but low cost models fall away. That is actually the same story on the Model S & X and on the Model 3. The low end of the line has just disappeared but the high end is more capable and cheaper.

 

[Crissa]

You are also mistaking what is needed for a 2170 pack and a 4680 pack. You are conflating two completely different cell form factors. Also mistaking the meaning of "pilot plant" and its current status.
It has been proven by physical teardown, the Model Y structural pack consists of 828 4680 cells, not 7104. The CT will not need anything like 7104 cells either - that would make the pack almost a 7 GIGAwatt pack (6,900Kw).

Holy crumb, I thought I'd read that, but thought maybe I misread due to tiredness.

But isn't 7104*(~100 Wh)= 710400 Wh hence 710.4 kWh or equal to seven Model S battery packs?

-Crissa

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