Electric Truck Economics - Worth the Price?

[Love2Cyber]

Been thinking about the economics of electric trucks as I contemplate executing on my early reservation. Financials don't seem to make sense to me... With a typical battery replacement cost of $15-20k on a model S today, what will it cost for a cybertruck battery twice the size? Let's say it costs $30k. And - given history with Tesla's - you can expect to either replace a couple of motors or the battery pack within the first 150k miles or more. I believe this aspect is contributing to plummeting used Tesla values lately - particularly the ones on the other side of 50k miles. Obviously, declining new prices are a big factor too...

So - assuming you own a cyber for 150k miles and you're out somewhere north of $30k for a battery or motors on average...was it worth it? Alternatively - a solid one ton diesel wouldn't have any material problems in that range. So - you're thinking gas savings? If I drove the diesel 150k miles, let's say 15 or so mpg at $6 / gallon, that's $60k on gas for the duration. Depending on your cost of electricity, I'm guessing there is a big savings comparatively - let's say it costs $10k. So - $50k savings in fuel, loss of $30k in Tesla differential upkeep loss. Net $20k for the period. But - not so fast - Cybertruck will cost at least that much more than a solid FS diesel.

So - no net economic benefit / neutral if you're lucky - but you get the untested reliability and range anxiety of a cybertruck? Lot's of reasons to own one - just don't be fooled into thinking $$ is one of them.

Prove me wrong

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[SSonnentag]

181,000 miles on my 2017 Model S with no signs of motor problems. Battery pack is at 10% degradation. No issues other than 3 self-presenting door handles over 6 years of ownership.

I'm saving $6,000 to $7,000 per year over my Dodge Charger I sold to get the S.


EDIT: Corrected Intrepid to Charger. The Intrepid was traded in for my wife's X.

 

[Crissa]

Well, first off, it doesn't cost $20k to replace a battery generally. And you don't generally need to replace it. The vast majority put on the road, have not failed due to the battery.

https://www.motortrend.com/features/how-long-does-a-tesla-battery-last/

Also, Tesla guarantees the battery 8 years or 150k miles. That's like, about as far as most cars get. Most cars don't get over 11 years old.

There are Teslas out there with batteries that have gone hundreds of thousands of miles.

We don't know the exact numbers, but the operating costs to EVs are much, much lower than for internal combustion. Your periodic maintenance doesn't include things like timing, transmissions, oil, etc; and your brakes last for much, much longer. And tires don't burn out any faster than you would with a higher performing vehicle and a lead foot would.

So lay off the pedal in most of your driving and you're seeing far less dollars going out the window.

Just a Lightning, at their inflated price, comes out cheaper than a gasoline version after about 60k miles.

-Crissa

 

[BayouCityBob]

Also, Tesla guarantees the battery 8 years or 150k miles. That's like, about as far as most cars get. Most cars don't get over 11 years old.

-Crissa

Actually, let me correct the record on this very common misconception. The typical car will remain on the road for 24 years or more unless it is lost to an accident.

The average age of all vehicles on the road is over 12 years old (see this link). In order to get an average of 12 years you need (roughly) the typical or average new vehicle to last about 24 years.

The math gets more complicated because (a) some vehicles remain on the road for 40, 50, even 100 years and those skew the average but on the other side of the equation (b) a bunch of used vehicles are exported each year and they are still on the road in central America mostly but also other places and they make the average look lower than it really is and (c) vehicles are lost to accidents making the real useful like look shorter than it really is. A good walking around number is ~25 years.

This is why it is a huge decision when you buy a new vehicle. Most people do not buy a new vehicle. (The used market is more than 3x the size of the new market as you would expect.) If you are among the top quartile who is lucky enough to be buying new, you are making a decision for the country that will last 25 years, long after you have forgotten about the vehicle.

 

[cvalue13]

I’m dubious of the assumption that a battery replacement is a foregone conclusion

I’m less dubious instead of the notion that BEV resale/depreciation is far more volition historically

buying a new anything isn’t a great financial decision, all else equal - so I’m not sure anyone’s starting with clean hands

after that, one might need to value many things so they than money (eg time) to determine what makes sense

I won’t know if I’m paying a premium for my Lightning vs an ICE F150 until it comes time to sell (and realize depreciation). But I’m pretty certain the value proposition of my Lightning is much greater than an ICE F150 (which I’d driven for better part of 30 years).

YMMV

 

[PilotPete]

Tesla recently spoke about a number of 200,000 mile Model S cars that had 12% OR LESS battery degradation. I guarantee that there isn't a gas powered car on the planet that retains 88% of its original power after 200,000 miles WITHOUT serious repair work. And if you are at 50-60% horsepower after 100,000 miles (as seen on TopGear!) and we assume you take real good care of your car and hold that through 200,000 miles, you ain't getting 88% "range" out of a tank of gas.

I don't believe you can make the assumptions you start with.

 

[Baldey]

Everyone seems to forget that ICE cars wear out too.. A diesel engine will outlast a gas one, but your average truck will need an engine rebuild before your average battery dies. A new engine isn't quite as expensive, but the years of oil changes, timing belts, fuel pumps etc add up.

Elon promised a one million mile power train (aiming to compete with diesel), and maybe not with the first units but i believe the CT will get there. Battery included, and im pretty sure the motors are already there.

Also, my model 3 gets about 4 miles per kilowatt.. So over 150k miles at 12 cents a kilowatt, it would cost me just under 5k in fuel. Cyber-truck will be a bit less efficient.. So yeah, the savings are well worth gunning a 4 tonn vehicle at every light, smoking every hatchback in sight

 

[SentinelOne]

I trade my vehicles at approx 10 years or 150k miles regardless so for me, no risk (assuming under warranty) and with the pace of change / new battery tech probable in the next 10 years....I prob won't even keep that long as I'll swap when next get batteries come out to save weight or increase range.

Currently have a 16 GMC 2500 Diesel - 70k miles, great truck, replaced ac compressor...no concern that the motor would last 300k+ might have more wear and tear than I like at that point and tech/capabilities are already getting obsoleted by the newer versions (which I'd own if CT wasn't on the way)...

But im not getting a CT for financial reasons - im getting it because it's different, love my m3p + 2500 but one vehicle is better than 2 for space, less insurance costs, etc; great Tesla experience to date, performance, off-road capabilities, storage, tech, comfort, hail resistant (important in Colorado), free's room in garage for more motorcycles (vs. M3P parking), help the stock price, it's the future, my electricity at home is 10cents per KW, etc

I want it, paying cash, screw the $'s...getting a plaid / performance / quad - what ever the top of the line is...and guessing I won't win on depreciation when ever I resale but after 4 years im ready!

 

[Love2Cyber]

Good point - ridiculous in that I forgot to account for the time value of money too! That up front premium for a BEV truck slug would pay off if invested instead.

I can appreciate how many arguments are framed around "many have been known to go for xxx miles" - c'mon folks, really? I had a model x that I sold right before 50k miles because the thing was flat our unreliable. The S P90D that I sold at 70k miles had both drive units replaced before then. I keep hearing how things have changed and that Tesla's are now more reliable...starting with the models built three years ago. Really? Time will ultimately tell if that is true, but history says no.

You'll be lucky to achieve high mileage - it happens, but currently for those that are lucky.

And hey - the good news - when the vehicle does start to break down, you'll have lot's of competition out there vying to get you back on the road. NO! Wait in line for when the Tesla SC wishes to gouge you.

I get it - they're neat and they go fast. Just don't make sense for people who care about money.

 

[Love2Cyber]

Well, first off, it doesn't cost $20k to replace a battery generally. And you don't generally need to replace it. The vast majority put on the road, have not failed due to the battery.

https://www.motortrend.com/features/how-long-does-a-tesla-battery-last/

Also, Tesla guarantees the battery 8 years or 150k miles. That's like, about as far as most cars get. Most cars don't get over 11 years old.

There are Teslas out there with batteries that have gone hundreds of thousands of miles.

We don't know the exact numbers, but the operating costs to EVs are much, much lower than for internal combustion. Your periodic maintenance doesn't include things like timing, transmissions, oil, etc; and your brakes last for much, much longer. And tires don't burn out any faster than you would with a higher performing vehicle and a lead foot would.

So lay off the pedal in most of your driving and you're seeing far less dollars going out the window.

Just a Lightning, at their inflated price, comes out cheaper than a gasoline version after about 60k miles.

-Crissa

Good point. Let me quote how your article starts: " How many miles or years will a Tesla battery last? It's tough to give a firm, evidence-based answer to that question.". Nice opinion piece

 

[JBee]

Good point - ridiculous in that I forgot to account for the time value of money too! That up front premium for a BEV truck slug would pay off if invested instead.

I can appreciate how many arguments are framed around "many have been known to go for xxx miles" - c'mon folks, really? I had a model x that I sold right before 50k miles because the thing was flat our unreliable. The S P90D that I sold at 70k miles had both drive units replaced before then. I keep hearing how things have changed and that Tesla's are now more reliable...starting with the models built three years ago. Really? Time will ultimately tell if that is true, but history says no.

You'll be lucky to achieve high mileage - it happens, but currently for those that are lucky.

And hey - the good news - when the vehicle does start to break down, you'll have lot's of competition out there vying to get you back on the road. NO! Wait in line for when the Tesla SC wishes to gouge you.

I get it - they're neat and they go fast. Just don't make sense for people who care about money.

Your personal experiences don't constitute an accurate assessment of the reliability of the whole fleet.

What for example was the unreliability with your MX? Why were both drive trains replaced in the MS, and was that under warranty? Who's fault was it? What conditions does the vehicle run in etc?

As for battery life, it really depends on how you predominantly use it and what your depth of discharge average is. It's always better to charge often, say every night at home, rather than cycling the whole pack all the way down before charging it again. But even doing full cycles at 300miles range each, you only end up with 500cycles for 150,000miles. LFP batteries for example do anywhere up to 3000 cycles at 80% DoD with minimal degradation.

As for your money comparison it is only glossing over the details that make it sound favourable to your position. Reality is that "if" your argument would be true, that ICE lasts longer, and are cheaper to run, then you shouldn't be looking at a new EV like the CT at all, but would be better off buying a used ICE truck that last longer anyway. You get what you pay for and your mileage may vary.

 

[Love2Cyber]

Your personal experiences don't constitute an accurate assessment of the reliability of the whole fleet.

What for example was the unreliability with your MX? Why were both drive trains replaced in the MS, and was that under warranty? Who's fault was it? What conditions does the vehicle run in etc?

As for battery life, it really depends on how you predominantly use it and what your depth of discharge average is. It's always better to charge often, say every night at home, rather than cycling the whole pack all the way down before charging it again. But even doing full cycles at 300miles range each, you only end up with 500cycles for 150,000miles. LFP batteries for example do anywhere up to 3000 cycles at 80% DoD with minimal degradation.

As for your money comparison it is only glossing over the details that make it sound favourable to your position. Reality is that "if" your argument would be true, that ICE lasts longer, and are cheaper to run, then you shouldn't be looking at a new EV like the CT at all, but would be better off buying a used ICE truck that last longer anyway. You get what you pay for and your mileage may vary.

I agree with you. You get what you pay for in selecting a new EV over a used truck. New EV truck is shiny and fast, but doesn't tow as far or otherwise offer any materially differential utility over an ICE. New truck EVs are status symbols / fun vehicles for those who have money to waste or want to somehow believe that they're changing the future of the environment, but not a sensible financial decisions for those who use their trucks to get utility / work done.

 

[JBee]

I agree with you. You get what you pay for in selecting a new EV over a used truck. New EV truck is shiny and fast, but doesn't tow as far or otherwise offer any materially differential utility over an ICE. New truck EVs are status symbols / fun vehicles for those who have money to waste or want to somehow believe that they're changing the future of the environment, but not a sensible financial decisions for those who use their trucks to get utility / work done.

If you are running a business with your vehicles, your accountant should be able to offset the depreciation and financial loss of operating a truck/EV, even of a "status symbol" version.

The question is always what the most cost effective way is to operate. There are many factors, from what type of finance you have, to what your investment returns are in comparison. Any investment that uses borrowed capital is viable if it pays itself and makes a profit. So if you are buying without using your own capital, then does it really matter if you earn more than you pay, seeing that either is not your money to begin with?

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