More 500-mile range rumors!

[newwave1331]

im honestly not sure of the point you’re making in my direction, that *I* know and *we* know

could they *build* a 500mi variant by now? Sure. Just change the trucks dimensions, lower the payload, increase the price, etc.

could they *sell* one? apparently not (in the deeper all things considered sense)

but fair enough correction that come reveal event we’ll likely see one of two angles:

(1) 500mi variant coming [someday], or
(2) Tesla believes not even trucks need 500mi ranges, it’s a waste of pack

I just don’t know if, from a marketing/public perception perspective, Tesla feels it’s time to express (2) even if that’s where they are privately … they’ve given plenty of hints at it though

so we may hear (1) eitherway, with the wild card being some breakthrough in battery tech that negates (2)?

What are the main reasons why Tesla can't/won't make a 500 mile cybertruck (in your opinion)?

• 4680 production rate
• 4680 energy density
• cybertruck cant hold that many 4680s
• weight of the stainless/armor glass (not bulletproof)
• shape of the vehicle -> high Cd
• 3500 lb payload rating and keeping GVWR < 10K
• Price/Cost -> Margins
• They dont want to make multiple pack sizes
• Tesla: just trust me bro, you dont need 500 miles (EPA rated)
• ???

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[PilotPete]

If Elon wishes to kick ass in Baja, surely he is not going to do it with 300 mile Ctrucks.

So he will not get his wish.

Who wishes to bet against Elon ?

So, I think (based on comments here and in other threads) that some people are making another assumption about something Elon said. Charlie has it right, Elon’s quote was “Kick butt in Baja”. Of note here is he DIDN’T say, “Kick butt in the Baja 1000” or even “Kick butt in the Baja race”. Now there are all sorts of comments about how this won’t handle the 1000 and charging speeds in the middle of the race and blah, blah, blah. It’s like me telling someone I’ve been to “Indy”. Yes, I’ve been to the city many times. I’ve never been to the Indy 500 race. Kicking butt in Baja, and kicking butt in the Baja 500 are very different goals.

 

[Coolbreeze704]

Didn't Herbie KICK BUTT in the Baja?

 

[HaulingAss]

I live in a state that gets 4 season. My average over the 10k miles is 2.5 with my Lightning

Only a Floridian would consider Troutman, NC as having 4 seasons, a couple of weeks of mild winter weather doesn't really change the average annual consumption much at all.

Most Lightning owners are at 2.0 miles/kWh or below, even many in California. The thermal management system of the Lightning is rather rudimentary, including thermal management of the battery, so people in less-than-ideal climates are already seeing more range loss due to early battery aging than they anticipated.

 

[cvalue13]

What are the main reasons why Tesla can't/won't make a 500 mile cybertruck (in your opinion)?

• 4680 production rate
• 4680 energy density
• cybertruck cant hold that many 4680s
• weight of the stainless/armor glass (not bulletproof)
• shape of the vehicle -> high Cd
• 3500 lb payload rating and keeping GVWR < 10K
• Price/Cost -> Margins
• They dont want to make multiple pack sizes
• Tesla: just trust me bro, you dont need 500 miles (EPA rated)
• ???

my opinion doesn't mean much in this arena, but for what the view is worth:

everything you list above can be simultaneously true​

​

and it's that collection of things that on balance drives decision-making​

​

if a person (wouldn't be me) were able to put a % contribution next to each of your bullets, sure, I would expect they aren't equal and a few may have higher percentages than all others and to that limited extent be described as "main reasons."​

​

but at the same time, that doesn't appear to me as relevant to how decisions like this get made. I presume that for every bullet above that remains true, they've made every effort to solve for it to date. But here we are today, and any remaining bullets go collectively into a single bucket called 'The Reason'.​

I suppose I would also, again only from my armchair, add this:

we tend to get mixed up in the difference between models/specs to be released *initially*, and where the Cybertruck line will go from there over the next months and few years.​

​

if we're detailed and honest about Tesla's history, many of Tesla's historical model lines didn't at release deliver on all the promises, or all the trim levels, expected - but months or years later came around (less or more). presumably that's the process we should expect here, too, if not the plan.​

​

feels like we lose site of that with the Cybertruck - and to be fair to *us* the nature and content of the 2019 reveal certainly gave us all reason to think about the Cybertruck release a certain way.​

​

but realistically, nothing about Tesla's history suggests sufficient reasons to believe that Tesla would release an entirely new vehicle with all available variants at once, and that those variants wont change over time. and along the way, from the consumer perspective, there will be winners and losers at any given time. (ask folks that bought a Model X a year ago.)​

which is all to say: feels like we'd all do better to keep in mind that discussions about what model variants will be released first, is different from what model variants will be released eventually.

 

[HaulingAss]

I think the "X factor" that makes the Cybertruck different is towing range. All of Teslas other cars don't have this as a competitive thing with other companies. It is a comparison that will be made regularly and in most articles when the CT comes out.

Considering that most pickup owners don't tow at all and, of those that do, most only tow locally, I think towing range is a metric that is widely blown out of proportion by the few who want to tour cross-country with big travel trailers behind. Sure, for that use EV trucks will still be less than optimum compared to gas or diesel. Those people shouldn't expect an EV truck to be just as good as gas or diesel, even if fuel costs are much lower. And I don't think the 500+ mile Cybertruck, when it becomes available, will have much, if any, advantage in towing range over any other truck with at least 450 miles of EPA range.

But this is a relatively narrow range of use cases, considering that most truck owners don't tow, or only tow on rare occasions, or only on a local basis, within a one or two hour radius.

 

[HaulingAss]

They changed it from last to first a week or so after the unveiling.

And after that they announced the quad-motor with unknown battery size. The quad-motor may be the first version released, or one of the first two versions released.

My only point here is to not necessarily expect a 500+ mile range version in the initial release. No one knows, yet, but I expect the 500+ mile version will come later.

 

[anionic1]

What are the main reasons why Tesla can't/won't make a 500 mile cybertruck (in your opinion)?

• 4680 production rate
• 4680 energy density
• cybertruck cant hold that many 4680s
• weight of the stainless/armor glass (not bulletproof)
• shape of the vehicle -> high Cd
• 3500 lb payload rating and keeping GVWR < 10K
• Price/Cost -> Margins
• They dont want to make multiple pack sizes
• Tesla: just trust me bro, you dont need 500 miles (EPA rated)
• ???

Teslas mission statement, "to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy through increasingly affordable electric vehicles in addition to renewable energy generation and storage." 95% of people dont need a 500 mile truck. Most trucks are used for daily work and much less travel even when fully loaded. A 200 kWh battery is not affordable in general. I don't think the 500 mi option is going to be Teslas primary focus and I bet it will be priced accordingly. The demand for limited battery resources is going to be limited for a very very long time. So folks that think Tesla is going to magically make more resources for batteries and thus battery capacity won't be an issue wont be correct for the next couple decades unless a real battery and energy storage breakthrough happens.

 

[CHC]

Although I strongly agree with 'the bigger the better' camp on the battery pack, with longer range, less degradation over time, more towing capacity, etc.,

Current rumors out of the factory point to the pack being around 130kwh. Pics from recent RCs support this, as the area under the CT is not wide/ long/ thick enough to hold a battery back much larger.

 

[CHC]

Teslas mission statement, "to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy through increasingly affordable electric vehicles in addition to renewable energy generation and storage." 95% of people dont need a 500 mile truck. Most trucks are used for daily work and much less travel even when fully loaded. A 200 kWh battery is not affordable in general. I don't think the 500 mi option is going to be Teslas primary focus and I bet it will be priced accordingly. The demand for limited battery resources is going to be limited for a very very long time. So folks that think Tesla is going to magically make more resources for batteries and thus battery capacity won't be an issue wont be correct for the next couple decades unless a real battery and energy storage breakthrough happens.

95% of people who buy an F150 don't need the towing capacity, size, etc. but it's the number one selling vehicle in America because of those features. If the Silverado EV can have a 200 kWh pack and have nearly a 500 mile range in its WT trim, why can't Tesla do the same at a cheaper price with 4680s?

 

[Coolbreeze704]

Only a Floridian would consider Troutman, NC as having 4 seasons, a couple of weeks of mild winter weather doesn't really change the average annual consumption much at all.

Most Lightning owners are at 2.0 miles/kWh or below, even many in California. The thermal management system of the Lightning is rather rudimentary, including thermal management of the battery, so people in less-than-ideal climates are already seeing more range loss due to early battery aging than they anticipated.

I have to laugh as it seems we need to argue everything on this site. ?

We have 4 seasons. We have winter weather that lasts for 3 months. We are close to the foothills and we get some rough winter cold snaps and it may not be extreme but I never stated extreme. I said I have 4 seasons.

Will there be a difference between a the few states in the lower 48 that get extreme cold and Troutman? Of course but I would say our year round weather better represents the average US owners experience.

 

[anionic1]

95% of people who buy an F150 don't need the towing capacity, size, etc. but it's the number one selling vehicle in America because of those features. If the Silverado EV can have a 200 kWh pack and have nearly a 500 mile range in its WT trim, why can't Tesla do the same at a cheaper price with 4680s?

Actually, the most sold F150 is the cheapest option. Indicating that really people just need trucks. We are busy beavers. The leading theory is that a large portion of the F150 sales are fleet and work trucks. And right now companies are set up to manage ICE fleets and those ICE F150s are about $45k. And many people can fix a ICE f150 in the field and keep it running. EVs are almost impossible to fix in the field. But they do seem to have a slightly more reliable track record. My current ICE vehicle has 190k miles and i have only had to replace a thermostat and engine mounts so to say that they are much more maintenance just isn't true any more. Once there is an EV truck around $45k with a range around 350 miles i think those cheap f150 buyers will start to migrate over to the EV world. Thats great that there is a silverado with a 450 mi range for $80k. I bet that will sell well but under 10% of the F150 ICE sales for at least a decade if you can still get a 600 mile F150 for $45k.

 

[wtibbit]

95% of people who buy an F150 don't need the towing capacity, size, etc. but it's the number one selling vehicle in America because of those features. If the Silverado EV can have a 200 kWh pack and have nearly a 500 mile range in its WT trim, why can't Tesla do the same at a cheaper price with 4680s?

I'd rather not pay for range I'll very, very rarely need. In addition to the initial extra cost for the larger battery, the cost of dragging the battery mass required for the extra range would be paid every mile the truck is driven.

I suspect the bulk of the buyers who need a real-world range greater than 300 miles are those who are towing loads more than 150 miles round trip, within a day.

Where I live, most of the non-work trucks I see towing a trailer are towing boats and I'll bet most of those boats aren't being towed more than 75 miles to a day-trip destination.

Given the existing long range model variations for the M3 and MY, I hope Tesla will eventually have a Dual Motor LR model for those who want/need the additional range and are happy to pay for it.

 

[HaulingAss]

Will there be a difference between a the few states in the lower 48 that get extreme cold and Troutman? Of course but I would say our year round weather better represents the average US owners experience.

I would mostly agree with that, but I think Troutman has a little better than average weather than the rest of the lower 48 in terms of EV efficiency and battery longevity. Primarily from avoiding the extreme heat of much of the southwest and the extreme cold of most of the north and the midwest. The reason for that is EV's have thermal management systems to manage battery temperatures and it's the extremes that put the battery outside the ideals. It's pretty easy for the thermal management system to deal with less extreme temperature variations.

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