Tinker71
Well-known member
- First Name
- Ray
- Joined
- Aug 8, 2020
- Threads
- 93
- Messages
- 1,610
- Reaction score
- 2,102
- Location
- Utah
- Vehicles
- 1976 VW EV bus, 2007 Sienna, Tesla M3, Cancelled CT2 rez - holding for $65k
- Occupation
- Project Manager
With exception of FSD reservations, the price will fluctuate even during the reservation fulfillment period as required to maintain a healthy backlog of 3-6 months of real orders with larger deposits.My analysis, without even knowing what the prices are at the initial release, is that Cybertruck is more likely to go up in price after the reservations with prices locked in are fulfilled, then it is to go down. Eventually, like in 4-6 years, the price might go down, but I think that time is quite a ways off.
Please remind me how I did on this call in three years.
I am going to guess that Tesla will try to convert 5000 reservations a week until they have that desired backlog. They will analyze the weekly take rate and adjust the price a little from there after the first 3 months or so.
The psychology of pricing is interesting. Sometimes a little price hike like they are doing now with the current line up sends a strong signal to get in now. Was there really a jump in backlog or was it a game to signal the price floor has been reached?
Unless the price starts off really high we won't see big fluctuations like the SX. I can guarantee that the price on Nov 30 will not stay the same after the first year.
Please remind me in 1 year if I am wrong
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