Poll: Does the No-Resale Policy Affect Your Purchase Intention?

[davelloydbrown]

I think it is a great idea and it is going to move a lot of people up the line and take out most of those multiple reservation holders who figured they would cash in on the low reservation fee (I believe the first day reservation fee for my M3 was around $1000 CAD).

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[JBee]

this issue, if anything, isn’t that Tesla failed to price it correctly (though raising the price would have the effect of deterring, it would be counter-productive)

the issue, instead, that this provision portends is that Tesla knows it won’t anytime soon be producing enough Cybertrucks to quell the secondary market

Serious question:

How exactly does making that clause, in an effort to supposedly stop scalping, actually get me into a CT faster as a genuine buyer?

This was a convo I had with another aussie here, that has been since been banned, and I asked him this same question, as he was promoting something similar with an auction mechanism.

The point I made there also was that as far as I know, nobody could make a purchase of more than one vehicle at a time anyway. There was no option to select "how many" you wanted in the one order, like on a grocery order.

To do so you would have to order one, then order another and so on. So for example after I ordered my first on reveal night, by the time I ordered the next one on the site, at least another few hundred, if not a thousand others would have placed an order in the peak time.

That means between my first and second order there would of been a hundred to a thousand extra places my second order was down the line.

Now if I had placed say 20 orders, that "could" be the difference of 20,000 places further back, and also 20,000 people that I let inbetween, and in "front" of my last order.

Now given that we know ramp will be fairly slow, like MY, that could mean anywhere between 3-9months inbetween delivers, depending on when I got my first order in, on reveal night.

Let's say a half of those bulk orders were legit, in that it was companies that ordered fleet vehicles, for their workers, that need them to do their job. That at least half of the double orders were for families that need two new vehicles etc, etc.

There's also going to be fallout from normal single buyers, those that can't afford it, or bought a Lightning etc.

Overall though, the spread of scalpers over such a long period, of both order time difference, and delivery time difference, that in the grand scheme if things barely anyone, at least at the front of the line, say under 200k, would even notice if scalpers took a few percentage points out of the delivery times.

Would it even be worth the fuss?

Or are they worried about the 2nd hand CT market overheating? If so why? Wouldn't that lead to more scalpers and more sales? Just via resellers at higher prices?

I mean if scalpers are selling them, there's demand there, if they don't then the scalper has to foot the bill for assets he can't dispose of, and the price goes down. Scalpers will be the first to go out of business if the demand falls, and people seeing 2nd hand prices would be even more intent on buying new, which benefits Tesla to keep strong demand.

Crucially though, every vehicle will find a user for a price, and so long Tesla has prices to become profitable over time, there's nothing for Tesla to loose, given their mission to sustainability.

Every vehicle sold, be that once or twice before someone uses it "genuinely", is a ICE vehicle displaced.

So what exactly is the benefit, except to step on toes?

I really think EM hasn't seen this...if so I would like to know what he's thinking that we are missing, or alternatively, missing that we have thought of here.

 

[TTz]

The no resale provision should cut out all the flippers looking to make a buck at the buyers expense.

If Tesla can pull this off, then why not Live Nation / Ticket Master.

Rick

Your comment is the upside.

First, what about if your circumstances change?
Loss of job; death in family; new roof needed;
moving to Hawaii; just don’t like the CT; etc.
Your asset should be yours to do with as you see fit.

Secondly, it doesn’t make supply/demand sense.
It should be a ICE OEM that slips this in. If you resell your Silverado after 30 days, you truly are “stealing” a sale. But the CT has (supposedly) over a million buyers waiting. Tesla can’t meet the current demand.

Thirdly, if Elon underpriced the CT to the point that a retail buyer can flip a CT for a huge profit, that is on the Tesla bean counters. And since when is “profit” a dirty word to entrepreneur Musk?

 

[cvalue13]

How exactly does making that clause, in an effort to supposedly stop scalping, actually get me into a CT faster as a genuine buyer?

Basically, I agree with all the corners you're looking around.

People think, over-simplifying, that:

• there's a concrete line (first assumption),
• that line is long (second assumption)
• a vast number of true scalpers willing to put down $[80]-$[120]K after taxes/fees (third assumption),
• that this provision will deter the majority of scalpers from executing purchase (fourth assumption),
• as a result, the concrete line in front of them will shorten materially so they get their purchase offer materially sooner (fifth assumption), and
• desire for the Cybertruck will be ravenous by the whole of the market (sixth assumption)
• that all of the above (and it must be all) will continue to be applicable by the time their order comes up (seventh assumption)

For each of these above assumptions, the number of issues/counterfactuals is significant.

And it only takes one of those assumptions being incorrect for the entire chain of reasoning to brake.

But let's just start with the last one above: if your number is over 200K in line, you're not seeing your number pulled until somewhere into 2026. Come to terms with that.

By somewhere into 2026, there's unlikely to still be any line (Tesla has never followed res numbers that long, before blowing up the line, and opening up orders to first-come-serve), the secondary market (for 1yr used CTs) will already be wide open for over a year prior, and so scalper motivation will be undercut (because people with money who want to 'jump the line' will take a 1yr old truck instead).

Meanwhile, if you're below 200K in line, you'll get to be the guinea pig, there still may not be any line by the time your number gets called, the secondary market may still be opening swiftly (by anyone who on a rolling basis is past their 1yr ownership mark), and for your troubles you may save a couple of weeks or months of time.

Reality is, at least as many legitimate buyers (who don't want to skirt the threat lawsuit) will drop out as there will be true, motivated, scalpers (who wont be as deterred).

So, for folks under 200K in line: congrats, you might just get your truck a few months earlier - on the backs of legit buyers who were understandably made uncomfortable with not having all rights of possession to a truck subject to these interest rates.

Sleep well!

 

[JBee]

And since when is “profit” a dirty word to entrepreneur Musk?

It is. He said a few times he doesn't care about making money, to the shareholders dismay.

Money for him is only a means to an end, to get to Mars, and he's already hitting a hard limit on being able to spend any more on what he needs to do it, because there is nothing 'left' he can buy with the reserves he is already sitting on.

People with "real" money, actually have a hard time spending it, because resources aren't available at that level of coin (we're talking country level wealth here), and in this case he's already bought up most of the good talent to get him there, so what else should he spend it on? With 2million job applications a year you can be pretty picky.

The biggest bane of his existence is red tape that is holding him up, look at his posts on X, that's also one of the reasons why he bought it, so he could support candidates that in turn support him.

It's nigh impossible for a private person to pull off Mars, without absolute government backing. So this is the long game for that goal, to the point he might get too old in the process to ever make it there himself.

 

[Rutrow]

I think it is a great idea and it is going to move a lot of people up the line and take out most of those multiple reservation holders who figured they would cash in on the low reservation fee (I believe the first day reservation fee for my M3 was around $1000 CAD).

$TSLA share cost in November 2019 ~$22.
$TSLA share cost right now ~$223,
... or 10X if you'd've put $100 into $TSLA instead of CyberTruck deposit, so about $1000 USD (real money )

 

[Crissa]

That makes no sense to me, but okay. I'm not a voter here.

It is adding a stipulation that isn't part of the discussion.

Everyone would be dissuaded by some price point and features. The poll doesn't ask about those, because they're not what the poll is asking about.

Secondly, it doesn’t make supply/demand sense.
It should be a ICE OEM that slips this in. If you resell your Silverado after 30 days, you truly are “stealing” a sale. But the CT has (supposedly) over a million buyers waiting. Tesla can’t meet the current demand.

Every truck a flipper flips is another truck that Tesla has to make at a lower price before realizing those higher prices.

-Crissa

 

[alcstarheel]

Basically, I agree with all the corners you're looking around.

People think, over-simplifying, that:

• there's a concrete line (first assumption),
• that line is long (second assumption)
• a vast number of true scalpers willing to put down $[80]-$[120]K after taxes/fees (third assumption),
• that this provision will deter the majority of scalpers from executing purchase (fourth assumption),
• as a result, the concrete line in front of them will shorten materially so they get their purchase offer materially sooner (fifth assumption), and
• desire for the Cybertruck will be ravenous by the whole of the market (sixth assumption)
• that all of the above (and it must be all) will continue to be applicable by the time their order comes up (seventh assumption)

For each of these above assumptions, the number of issues/counterfactuals is significant.

And it only takes one of those assumptions being incorrect for the entire chain of reasoning to brake.

But let's just start with the last one above: if your number is over 200K in line, you're not seeing your number pulled until somewhere into 2026. Come to terms with that.

By somewhere into 2026, there's unlikely to still be any line (Tesla has never followed res numbers that long, before blowing up the line, and opening up orders to first-come-serve), the secondary market (for 1yr used CTs) will already be wide open for over a year prior, and so scalper motivation will be undercut (because people with money who want to 'jump the line' will take a 1yr old truck instead).

Meanwhile, if you're below 200K in line, you'll get to be the guinea pig, there still may not be any line by the time your number gets called, the secondary market may still be opening swiftly (by anyone who on a rolling basis is past their 1yr ownership mark), and for your troubles you may save a couple of weeks or months of time.

Reality is, at least as many legitimate buyers (who don't want to skirt the threat lawsuit) will drop out as there will be true, motivated, scalpers (who wont be as deterred).

So, for folks under 200K in line: congrats, you might just get your truck a few months earlier - on the backs of legit buyers who were understandably made uncomfortable with not having all rights of possession to a truck subject to these interest rates.

Sleep well!

That's the thing. This provision will definitely remove some of the small time scalpers from the queue. But big time scalpers and operations will likely follow through and develop other mechanisms while they wait out their now 1 year investment. I don't think it moves "legitimate buyers" up in the queue at all.

Scenario 1:

• Small time scalper puts in two reservations on launch day hoping to flip to make a quick $10K profit on each of their low number reservations.
• Tesla puts in provision to wait 1 year to resell without restrictions or authorization.
• Small time scalper thinks of all the issues that can arise in one year by renting/sub-leasing to others. Small time scalper doesn't have the operation to vet would-be renters/sub-leasees.
• Small time scalper sees that a 1 year wait will significantly reduce profit potential and potential profit will not account for the headaches over the 1 year of ownership to get their expected payoff.
• Small time scalper cancels reservations.

Scenario 2:

• Big time scalper sees the potential for the secondary market of the CT and puts in 50 reservations on launch day. $5K is a small investment cost to pay for potential profit of over $10K each vehicle.
• Tesla puts in provision to wait 1 year to resell without restrictions or authorization.
• Big time scalper thinks to themselves "okay maybe I can't realize those profits immediately but I will create a secondary business for rentals, joy rides, sub-leases/etc. while I wait out the 1 year resell period."
• Big time scalper projects out the immediate profit they'll make incrementally over the months and bides their time until the one year mark where they can realize the big profits on resell.
• Big time scalper comes to the 1 year resell period and the thriving secondary market. They resell their fleet of 50 cybertrucks for $10K profit each.

So maybe this cools the secondary market for the "rolling" year as Tesla intends but only for a year. But I think the queue remains mostly intact. And it does not stop people from "making money" off their early reservations. I think they would have to further put in a limit of one per customer/organization/address for that first year.

Then you have to think about the enforcement of this. Is Tesla building a team to investigate potential violations of this provision? On a case-by-case basis? Say you have 5,000 individual people/businesses that violate (which is a paltry 0.5% of the million plus orders and only 4% of their expected production for '24) -- are they filing injunctions against all of those separately in the separate states the violators would have likely violated this provision? Are they contracting with state vehicle registration offices to be informed en masse if certain VINs have a transfer of title before 1 year post registration date while also being informed of what value was specified for the title transfer? Seems unlikely they could go after all those.

Ferrari/Porsche/Ford with its GT could more easily monitor those types of resales because those vehicles are such short runs of production. If Tesla gets to 125,000 CTs produced by December '24 the number of potential scalpers is an order of magnitude more than anything those other companies had to deal with.

 

[PilotPete]

So maybe this cools the secondary market for the "rolling" year as Tesla intends but only for a year. But I think the queue remains mostly intact. And it does not stop people from "making money" off their early reservations. I think they would have to further put in a limit of one per customer/organization/address for that first year.

So, what if nearly HALF of the reservation list is made up of "resellers"? What does this do to the secondary market and the consumer delivery schedule for the first few years?

With seeing what happened with the M3 right before the CT launch, I think this was fresh in peoples' minds and many saw an opportunity. I wouldn't be surprised to see 25%+ bail since they weren't honest buyers, but rather "intended resellers".

 

[cvalue13]

So, what if nearly HALF of the reservation list is made up of "resellers"? What does this do to the secondary market and the consumer delivery schedule for the first few years?

With seeing what happened with the M3 right before the CT launch, I think this was fresh in peoples' minds and many saw an opportunity. I wouldn't be surprised to see 25%+ bail since they weren't honest buyers, but rather "intended resellers".

what if ALL the reservation list is made up of true resellers?

what if 3%?

etc.

end of the day, all this consternation about the line is fueled mostly by hopium.

• these are $100 refundables, made when interest rates made loans essentially free, and when no one was planning for 4 years out. many legit buyers wont have the steel or interest to convert
• the anecdotal percentage is high of legit buyers who made multiple reservations "just to have options," etc.
• these reservations were open world-wide, none outside the U.S. will convert.
• legit buyers who would have otherwise converted but for this ROFR may be not insignificant (if they have their heads screwed on right) in

etc.

it's a true scotsman to suggest any drop-out rate is attributable to this provision deterring resellers.

though, and needs to be said: it would be a convenient excuse for Tesla to trot out...

 

[PilotPete]

what if ALL the reservation list is made up of true resellers?

what if 3%?

etc.

end of the day, all this consternation about the line is fueled mostly by hopium.

• these are $100 refundables, made when interest rates made loans essentially free, and when no one was planning for 4 years out. many legit buyers wont have the steel or interest to convert
• the anecdotal percentage is high of legit buyers who made multiple reservations "just to have options," etc.
• these reservations were open world-wide, none outside the U.S. will convert.
• legit buyers who would have otherwise converted but for this ROFR may be not insignificant (if they have their heads screwed on right) in

etc.

it's a true scotsman to suggest any drop-out rate is attributable to this provision deterring resellers.

though, and needs to be said: it would be a convenient excuse for Tesla to trot out...

I didn't even think about international that won't convert immediately. And you are right that there are a respectable number of buyers that won't convert with this in the contract. As immeasurable as it might be, my wag is the same for what I think the reseller percentage looks like. But we will never know.

 

[CyberGus]

end of the day, all this consternation about the line is fueled mostly by hopium

Keep your nose outta my hopium

 

[cvalue13]

As immeasurable as it might be, my wag is the same for what I think the reseller percentage looks like.

and of that WAG, what percentage are relevant to this discussion? Those would be only the ones incrementally pushed to be finally deterred by the addition of these provisions.

remembering Tesla already had the no resale provisions and tools at its disposal to deter real or repeat flippers

 

[PilotPete]

and of that WAG, what percentage are relevant to this discussion? Those would be only the ones incrementally pushed to be finally deterred by the addition of these provisions.

remembering Tesla already had the no resale provisions and tools at its disposal to deter real or repeat flippers

C,

At the core, I'm with you in that I don't know that this is the right way to go. I read on this thread that maybe this was for the "prebuys" or employees or something like that. Ok, that makes sense. I was just making the point that IF that were all true, and IF Tesla did nothing, it COULD affect sales and production for multiple years. And sad emotional cases where Joe Sixpack signs a loan for his new CT that puts his double-wide mortgage and the heart medication for his two year old Bobby at risk, only to drop dead after getting hit by a bear truck while walking into the post office to pick up Mama's social security check is, well, an outlier that I don't think (yes, only an opinion) Tesla is interested in chasing. And as you have so deftly pointed out, the pre-order has everything they need to stop it, or at least punish it. So I don't know that anything else is required.

On an emotional level (and maybe financial as I have had to buy some real expensive concert and sporting event tickets), I'd love to see some of these guys get caught by their short hairs. But that's not logical, it is purely emotionally driven.

 

[alcstarheel]

So, what if nearly HALF of the reservation list is made up of "resellers"? What does this do to the secondary market and the consumer delivery schedule for the first few years?

If half are resellers…

To the secondary market it means people will be able to “jump the line” in a year when the restriction period ends instead of putting in an order now or even in a year and being at the “back of the queue” behind a million+ orders. With only a 125,000 production capacity that means 85% of orders will still be waiting in a year. The secondary market will fill that void for those that don’t want to wait and it will be filled at a premium. The “line” will still hold for those buyers 2+ years out as they’ll wait to get their CT at MSRP.

To the delivery schedule not much for the early reservation holders. Maybe delaying when a person is called to configure. If Joe Plumber is #10,000 on the list they maybe get the call to configure in March ‘24 (at 1,000/week rate to start). If half in front of him are resellers that back out then he’d get the call in Feb ‘24. If he’s #50,000 and they get to 2,500 a week by April he gets the call in July ‘24. If half the reservations in front of him back out he gets the call in May ‘24.

Again, to me, Tesla should restrict the number of reservations an account/business can convert in the first year and remove the provision. Any accounts with more than 2 reservations will have to wait on the 3rd, 4th, etc. I think that’s more of a deterrent to big flippers that reserved, say, 50 on one account. They can’t even take delivery, they can’t build profit centers off their fleet during the restriction period, and they can’t realize profits when the restriction year is up.

With seeing what happened with the M3 right before the CT launch, I think this was fresh in peoples' minds and many saw an opportunity. I wouldn't be surprised to see 25%+ bail since they weren't honest buyers, but rather "intended resellers".

“Honest buyers” is not a real thing in how this market economy is constructed. An honest buyer is someone that purchases with valid legal tender and that’s it. “Intended resellers” definitely is a real thing and many a company has tried to stop those. Think Adele with trying to cancel tickets to her concerts that are resold at huge markups. Think Nike restricting purchases to “honest buyers” while whole companies (StockX) are built completely off the secondary market Nike allows to thrive. For Tesla this way they’ve drawn up restricting the ownership of your “honest buyers” to stop your “intended resellers” I think missed the mark.

This is not like someone else suggested where a housing development/condo restricts sales of the new builds within their development or building. These are all individual products purchased legitimately spread across the country only linked by their appearance.

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